T.S Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

i think the discussion means that the connection between the smaller low latitude trough and the stronger mid latitude trough don't usually phase according to climo

i take this as bad news for the carolina's because

1. the smaller low latitude trough will steer this thing north albeit temporarily if it doesn't phase with mid lat trough some where between 65-75 west which should bring it north of florida IMO

2. the lack of confidence in hooking up with the mid lat trough suggest the system ( if there is one in 5 days) may find a weakness and slide between the troughs

possibly but I also read it to mean it may continue WNW and miss the weakness all together putting Florida at risk. Considering this thing will now stay weak for at least the next couple of days - it could begin to move more west than wnw....its all early to say.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's either Florida or Texas for some of you people on here...Just guess work. Some of you HATE the fact that Texas or Florida may not be in the path for a hurricane. Yes, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, that's why this is a message board but some of you, NOT all, you can see who is educated in weather, just like going against the grain on everything that any model puts out.

[wxman57]

now that I read the latest discussion, which was excellent by the way, I think it is actually indicating there is a possbility there will be no weakness and it will just continue WNW - if you extrapolate it out, Florida would be in its path....let's just hope that doesn't happen.

I think the Carolinas may be more at risk here than Florida if the high blocks it. But it's way too early to be sure of anything.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

wxman57...How high are the chances for TD 6 organizing around X98L circulation as Jeff Masters said could occur...That will put us in the islands under risk...That area south of 15N 46W looks fairly good on animated IR images tonight...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[GeneratorPower]

There is no reliable way to forecast the steering pattern over 3 days out. You can do it, but the forecast is generally not helpful in determining landfall points.

The features being discussed here, such as troughs/ridges, are in an area of the globe that is devoid of any meaningful data measurements about the current state of the atmosphere. You're in no-man's-land as far as models go because there's little data here in the central Atlantic.

One reason they send Hurricane Hunter aircraft into storms is to get the info they need to plug into the models. We have no recon here. We have little info about the atmosphere. Thus, the models are not very helpful.

My money is on a surprise one way or another. There is one thing we can expect from this TD -- the unexpected!

Absolutely nothing has been behaving according to plan this year, which is anecdotal evidence that this system won't either.

[Bailey1777]

Who has said Texas? I want to see that post.

[WxGuy1]

TD6 will need to stay as south as possible to have much of a chance of a US strike as any sort of significant storm. The GFS suggests that there will be 20-25kt westerly or west-northwesterly flow in the 300-500mb layer by early next week, which would create quite a bit of shear for the system. This flow weakens as one heads southward, but it doesn't look like TD6 will be that far south then. For example, look HERE at the ~50kt 400mb west-northwesterly flow off the southeastern US coast by next Wednesday. No way will any storm make landfall north of Melbourne FL (at any appreciable intensity, at least) if that happens...

The ECMWF seems a little less bullish on such troughing off the eastern US coast (particularly in the mid-levels), but even the Euro indicates that TD6 will recurve out to sea well east of the coast. If the trough digs like the GFS shows, any storm near the coast will get sheared quite severely.

I give TD6 an 80% chance of recurving to sea quite a ways east of the US coastline. Of course, we don't have a well-developed center of circulation yet (a couple diffuse centers persist attm), so the initial position (which will obviously affect it's future position) is up in the air. The chance rises quite dramatically if the ECMWF upper-level synoptic forecast verifies. Note, however, that even the Day 5-7 ECMWF indicate TD6 recurving out to sea well east of the US.

I vote we don't get too anxious here yet, nor look through our 'rose-colored' glasses by looking only at the data that give the slightest amount of possibility of a US landfall (for those who are excited by such events).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeff Master's evening post:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200609

[fci]

I smell fish here....lets just see if that happens

Might not even make it through the shear.

But if it does, not necessarily a fish.
I'd be more concerned in the Carolinas than anywhere else.
If it develops.... and then goes WNW, the turn near the end of the foreacst period may be only subtle and enough to take it to the Carolinas and not necessarily all the way to "fishy land".

First this has to stay in one piece.....

[SouthFloridawx]

[MWatkins]

Jeff Master's evening post:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200609

Interesting...I took a look at the almost exact same deal...although on a different server...and drew a completely different conclusion from the data. It appears...to me...the broad flow is more cyclonic around the northrn low...with perhaps the circulation center in that unvelope being south of the NHC track position by 60 nautucal miles or so...maybe that site has better resolution than mine...and he's the Dr. I'm just some guy with a website:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/qscat_example.htm

MW

[SouthFloridawx]

[Bgator]

The New GFS basically kills the system 54 hours out, there is still a LLC but a very weak one...Hmmm....

[SouthFloridawx]

The New GFS basically kills the system 54 hours out, there is still a LLC but a very weak one...Hmmm....

This one?

[Bgator]

The New GFS basically kills the system 54 hours out, there is still a LLC but a very weak one...Hmmm....

This one?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054s.gif

Yes...But there is no circulation to be sene on the 500mb level, unles sim looking at it wrong..

[SouthFloridawx]

[Bgator]

72 Hours out, shows a weaker system, a bot more south of last run i think...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_072.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

[Bgator]

THe 00UTC GFS isnt even completely out yet, unless u have a link i dont...

[SouthFloridawx]