T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

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mtm4319
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#161 Postby mtm4319 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:24 pm

The first advisory on what would become Andrew:

Code: Select all

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE
ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  AT 11 PM
AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE  38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...AND
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 38.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST...MONDAY.
 
MAYFIELD
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Josephine96

#162 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:24 pm

A long tracked system would be nice.. It'd keep us on our toes..
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#163 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:27 pm

03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L


Some t number support for the upgrade.
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#164 Postby Bgator » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:29 pm

When is the ULT supposed to pull out?
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#165 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:30 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:03/2345 UTC 14.7N 39.6W T2.5/2.5 06L


Some t number support for the upgrade.
nope. NHC does not believe this is a tropical storm.
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#166 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:35 pm

Dont think this one will be the same track as Andrew...If so, then I'll win the LOTTO, which I dont play.

http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/andrew92.html
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#167 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:37 pm

Image
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#168 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:39 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Dont think this one will be the same track as Andrew...If so, then I'll win the LOTTO, which I dont play.

http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/andrew92.html


Yeah it looks like TD6 will probably head further north but that's interesting how strong the high got all of a sudden for andrew.
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#169 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:40 pm

did anyone else notice that it was at 40.4w on both advisories?
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#170 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:44 pm

fact789 wrote:did anyone else notice that it was at 40.4w on both advisories?


Both discos have been up front about the fact that they are not certain where the actual LLC is located..;)
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#171 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:45 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Do any one else see two systems there like I do.


I see the similarities especially in the model that shows it approaching So Fla and then taking the sharp right turn up towards NC/SC.

Also to answer an earlier post regarding Andrew, he started as TD #1 at 10.8/35.5 and when he got to 14.4 he was between 48 and 50.
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Josephine96

#172 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:46 pm

storm doesn't feel like going west right now :lol: and btw.. My thoughts also have the storm probably going further north than South Fla as well. I'm gonna say Central Florida northward..

Not a people I disagree with words ok.. :wink:
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#173 Postby fci » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:48 pm

bob rulz wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.


The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane will never happen again.


NEVER say NEVER!!!!

Just ask MANY who have said "Never" or "Will Not" or "Can Not" on the board and have been very, very wrong!!!

Stick to phrases like "should not", "probably won't" etc...

The ONLY thing guaranteed to be true about your statement is that it will never be 1928 again.
Take that to the bank!!!!!!
:D
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#174 Postby Grease Monkey » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:51 pm

fci wrote:The ONLY thing guaranteed to be true about your statement is that it will never be 1928 again.

:D


Well for now until time machines are invented or open to the public. :wink:

But I als think the word "should not" should be added to the no no list. No stable rules with mother nature.
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Josephine96

#175 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:55 pm

<<<wonders what'd be like to go back to 1928 :wink:
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#176 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:56 pm

I think it won't be a TS until tomorrow afternoon.
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#177 Postby cpdaman » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:58 pm

anyone know what steve lyons from TWC has said lately
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Josephine96

#178 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:59 pm

Sometime tomorrow we'll have Florence.. I'm placing a bet on 11 am :)
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#179 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I think it won't be a TS until tomorrow afternoon.


You know something, you may be right. There is a lot going on in a rather small portion of the Atlantic Ocean right now at the same time. TD6 has to overcome the wave to its west, the one to its east and also that monster trough that is most certainly affecting it right now. Until it gets clear of some of these affects I'm afraid that it's going to be a guessing game for us, the models, and the pro mets.
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#180 Postby JTD » Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:04 pm

Did anyone notice the 11 P.M. NHC forecast track? Rather interesting to say the least.
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