Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[rnbaida]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.0 39.1 270./11.1
6 11.4 39.4 328./ 4.1
12 11.7 39.5 334./ 3.9
18 12.6 39.9 336./10.0
24 13.0 40.7 294./ 8.5
30 13.7 40.9 348./ 6.9
36 14.7 41.0 350./10.7
42 15.8 41.8 326./12.9
48 16.8 42.7 320./13.3
54 17.6 43.5 310./11.2
60 18.4 44.0 329./ 9.8
66 19.2 44.7 320./10.0
72 20.3 45.2 335./11.4
78 21.1 45.8 324./10.4
84 22.0 46.4 326./10.3
90 22.6 47.1 314./ 9.2
96 23.3 47.5 331./ 7.4
102 24.0 47.8 331./ 7.6
108 24.6 48.5 312./ 9.2
114 25.0 49.5 293./ 9.9
120 25.4 50.5 288./ 8.8
126 25.5 51.2 282./ 7.1



12z GFDL doesn't start at the proper place as the more organizing area is more east.

Does it turn the system west after heading north?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Take a look at this animated visible shot...It looks like its making its act together near 35W...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[rnbaida]

It takes it north and then it moves it to the WEST>>>>.What does that mean?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 36W-44W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 11N WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE MAY
BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Trugunzn]

Interesting that the GFDL has it heading North then taking it west. The CMC also developes a strong storm and heads west instead of curving it. Wonder whats keeping them from curving?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 11.0N 39.4W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 11.0N 39.4W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD dvorak has stayed with the front position and not where the real action is,more east,around 35w.That is why it's too weak.I am sure if they put the position at 35w it would be 1.5.

[Thunder44]

Take a look at this animated visible shot...It looks like its making its act together near 35W...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

You can also see the African Dust cloud just to the north the system. It will be interesting to see later this afternoon if could develop and wrap more convection on the side of the circulation.

[tgenius]

Interesting that the GFDL has it heading North then taking it west. The CMC also developes a strong storm and heads west instead of curving it. Wonder whats keeping them from curving?

That almost looks like the Bermuda High digging down and keeping it westward, I need not remind anyone Mr. Andrew in 92 did very similarly.

[SouthFloridawx]

It may be a bit premature to call this sytem a fish.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982006) ON 20060902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060902 1800 060903 0600 060903 1800 060904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 39.7W 11.5N 41.1W 12.4N 42.2W 13.5N 43.1W
BAMM 11.0N 39.7W 11.6N 41.0W 12.5N 42.4W 13.5N 43.5W
A98E 11.0N 39.7W 11.1N 41.6W 11.4N 43.5W 11.5N 45.4W
LBAR 11.0N 39.7W 11.5N 41.6W 12.3N 43.3W 13.5N 45.4W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060904 1800 060905 1800 060906 1800 060907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 44.1W 16.1N 46.7W 16.8N 49.4W 17.1N 52.4W
BAMM 14.4N 44.7W 15.9N 46.7W 17.0N 48.7W 17.6N 50.6W
A98E 11.7N 47.3W 12.5N 51.2W 13.5N 55.0W 14.5N 58.5W
LBAR 14.5N 47.7W 16.8N 52.2W 19.7N 56.5W 22.9N 60.5W
SHIP 59KTS 72KTS 74KTS 70KTS
DSHP 59KTS 72KTS 74KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 39.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 38.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 36.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Again,the models dont iniciate in the proper position because the real action is around 35w.

[SouthFloridawx]

You can see the broad circulation there on the QS pass. Most of the convection is now towards the eastern end.

But the TWD has the low positioned closer to 40W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.

The models may not be that far off as the low is positioned from the TPC not more towards 35W.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_98.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1748.shtml?

[Derek Ortt]

I am not understanding that western position

During the day today the rear feature is clearly the better organized of the two. Plus, it has more global model support. However, it also has a ways to go before reaching TD status

[Dean4Storms]

I don't know Derek, looking at the feature near 35w it looks to be close to TD status now. A low must be present in that vicinity for the spiral banding to be taking shape as it is. I say we have a TD out there by Sunday morning if this trend continues.

[Trugunzn]

[Sanibel]

I'm glad Derek saw that too. The invest has very definitely done an elongated center jump back to the second formation at the east end of the in-curving southern band.

This one is the packer of the two invests with what looks like a very large drawing area congealing in a large circulation.

My guess is slow formation of our first real muscular cyclone this year.

I doubt this is lifting north. Looks like it's headed right for the Caribbean to me.

[SouthFloridawx]

moved to 90L

[SouthFloridawx]

As long as this keeps up we'll have a TD by tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

While I think 98L being a fish storm is fantastic news, I'm a bit puzzled as to why it would be fish, yet 99L is forecasted to go into Mexico/South America, and yet both waves are pretty close together, but then again, I'm still learning stuff

98L doesn't look organized anyway, so even if it wasn't going to be a fish, I don't think we have to worry about it anymore. Last week at this time I thought we've be looking at a depression, but then again, that's the story of 2006....