Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

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tgenius
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#161 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:26 pm

That system sure looks like its on the verge of invest status...
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bostonseminole
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#162 Postby bostonseminole » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

tgenius at link above you will find the whole explanation about how this dvorak thing works.


can you send me link to actual Dvorak
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#163 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:34 pm

bostonseminole wrote:
cycloneye wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

tgenius at link above you will find the whole explanation about how this dvorak thing works.


can you send me link to actual Dvorak


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
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#164 Postby Zardoz » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:09 pm

It seems to be gathering itself up fairly well:

Color IR Loop
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#165 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:49 pm

tgenius wrote:That system sure looks like its on the verge of invest status...


Scroll back 24hours. We were having the exact same conversation last night with another area of convection.

The NHC usually doesn't give a developing area a second glance until it looks good for a long time.
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#166 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:08 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on August 29, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto...located a few miles southeast of Islamorada in the
Florida Keys.

A tropical wave is located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cape Verde island. Development of this system..if any...is
expected to be slow to occur as the tropical wave moves slowly
westward.


An area of low pressure is located about 1200 miles east of the
northern Leeward Islands. Shower activity with this system is
limited...and development...if any...is expected to be slow to
occur as the low moves westward.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
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#167 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:09 pm

411
ABNT20 KNHC 300306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED A FEW MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISLAMORADA IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLAND. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM..IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#168 Postby bostonseminole » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:14 pm

they don't sound very excited
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#169 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:16 pm

Probably because of the dry air.
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#170 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:03 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300924
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
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#171 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:40 am

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON NIGHT
CHANNEL VIS IMAGES AND THE FIRST FEW VIS IMAGES THIS MORNING
SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM
6N-14N WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...THOUGH
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


8 AM Discussion.
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#172 Postby Anthonyl » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:42 am

[TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 17N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON NIGHT
CHANNEL VIS IMAGES AND THE FIRST FEW VIS IMAGES THIS MORNING
SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM
6N-14N WITHIN 200NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS...THOUGH
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Given climatology and the evidence of cylonic turning it's just a matter of time before this spins up.
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#173 Postby cinlfla » Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:44 am

I think this one has great potential I've been watching it over the last few days now.
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#174 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 30, 2006 8:42 am

Is this going to be our next great storm to watch? :wink:
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#175 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:01 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is this going to be our next great storm to watch? :wink:


Sure looks like it..also looks like a sure GOMER to me :hehe:
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#176 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:07 am

Atlantic wave train has gone flat like earlier conditions. Whole ITCZ from Africa looks sparse again.


2006 = bust year?
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#177 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:11 am

Sanibel wrote:Atlantic wave train has gone flat like earlier conditions. Whole ITCZ from Africa looks sparse again.


2006 = bust year?


Nope...so far, 2006 = GREAT YEAR! (at least in terms of damage and destruction)
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#178 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:28 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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#179 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:15 am

Sanibel wrote:Atlantic wave train has gone flat like earlier conditions. Whole ITCZ from Africa looks sparse again.


2006 = bust year?



Sanibel, you are so right about these waves. I didn't expect them to go poof at all, due to better conditions overall and the time of year it is...

Well, I think we will know in a couple of weeks if this season is over or not, because by then it will be mid september and if we still don't have anything else by then,(or have anything looking like it will develop) then chances start going downill rapidly of the pattern all of the sudden changing....Yea I kow, there can be systems in October, but remember, there have been PLENTY of Octobers void of any activity as well, and if these problems persist into mid September, there's no reason think they won't continue.

It's all up the next 2 weeks. We'll wait and see what they bring.
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#180 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 30, 2006 11:30 am

Image

THE FUTURE ISN'T BRIGHT AS OF NOW FOR FLORENCE AND GORDON!!!!
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