Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#161 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:46 am

Not looking too shabby right now. Maybe the thing still has a trick up its sleeve?

Trugunzn · #162 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:47 am

This is starting to remind me of chris. Convection blows up and then dies off. Then blows up and then dies off. I wouldnt be surprised if they do find tropical force winds when recon goes in there, bt only weak.

flhurricaneguy · #163 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:48 am

Trugunzn wrote:This is starting to remind me of chris. Convection blows up and then dies off. Then blows up and then dies off. I wouldnt be surprised if they do find tropical force winds when recon goes in there, bt only weak.

they are both very similar due to the conditions that have been in that area.

#164 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:56 am

Yes convection is looking better but, no west winds from that bouy down there reported really... That's not to say there couldn't be a small circulation under that blow up that looks to be pretty consistent ....

"FOR NOW"

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

StrongWind · #165 Postby **StrongWind** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:58 am

This is the first blob to impress me. Looks like the flow it's embedded in has it on the fast track to the West. I don't see much to pull it North of Jamaica if even that far.

Trugunzn · #166 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 8:59 am

I really hope it doesnt play games with uslike chris. Hope it can hold its convection.

#167 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:00 am

Thunder44 wrote:
tailgater wrote:Hey guys catch me up , this did have a LLC ? but it doesn't now? Sure looks like it"s close with inflow from all directions except SW IMHO. JUST judging this from early morn. satellite pics so don't slam me too hard.

Look at my last post. It doesn't appear to have LLC now.

Thanks 44 you must have posted that that while I was typing. I'm in and out a lot forgive me.

HurricaneGirl · #168 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:03 am

Nice looking Blob

ConvergenceZone · #169 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:11 am

I'm not even going to open my mouth and say "it's looking better" anymore, because everytime I say that I have to insert foot. My lips are zipped.......

#170 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:13 am

Should keep watching those peripheral cumulus clouds on the VIS over the next 12-24 to see if anything really starts to shape up. See a few signs of proto-organization afoot, but nothing to get :eek:

over...yet. Nice blob ATTM, tho'.

#171 Postby **drezee** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:18 am

12Z Model Runs:

#172 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:20 am

If there are any clues to what the hurricane center is thinking right now...it's this.

They initialized the tracks at 30 knots. They haven't done that yet with this system. Every other run has been started at 25 knots.

We will know more in an hour I guess.

MW

ConvergenceZone · #173 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:21 am

They must have repositioned the Floater, as this loop looks strange.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Nimbus · #174 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:22 am

The LLC seems to be on the south side of the convection. The convection is being sheared north a little. There is no ULL chasing it so the convection may continue to increase in spurts. I finally broke down tyhis season and bought a radio shack 12 260 weather receiver to get updates in case this thing comes north towards Florida.

Thunder44 · #175 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:25 am

I don't think there is a closed LLC yet. If you look at the little low clouds ahead of the thunderstorms south of Barbados, you will see that they are still moving from east to west. You will want them to move from west to east to indicate a LLC is forming.

MortisFL · #176 Postby **MortisFL** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:26 am

BAM-S might be the right model on that 12z map. I remember the NHC using that model with Chris as well.

#177 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:30 am

MortisFL wrote:BAM-S might be the right model on that 12z map. I remember the NHC using that model with Chris as well.

That would not be good for Jamaica.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #178 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:37 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

miamicanes177 · #179 Postby **miamicanes177** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:39 am

intensity forecast 12Z:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

mike815 · #180 Postby **mike815** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:39 am

ok so we go another 360 degrees how many more times are they goin to flip flop

Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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