Ex-96L Invest,Comments

[Aric Dunn]

unfortunatly the observations are an hour apart and we dont get to see the real time data.. but i do agree with you there is for sure a LLC but may not be all the way to the surface.. but until we get some more obs in the next few minutes or hours to see if there is a wind shift niether of can be for sure.. and right with the postion of the LLC there should ene to ne winds .. but one problem is that it is a very small system .. hard to tell anything .. lol but it is still something to watch and will have a hard time to develope if at all ... but for the next 24hrs... it will have to be watched until it hits the strongest wind shear..

[curtadams]

unfortunatly the observations are an hour apart and we dont get to see the real time data.. but i do agree with you there is for sure a LLC but may not be all the way to the surface.. but until we get some more obs in the next few minutes or hours to see if there is a wind shift niether of can be for sure.. and right with the postion of the LLC there should ene to ne winds .. but one problem is that it is a very small system .. hard to tell anything .. lol but it is still something to watch and will have a hard time to develope if at all ... but for the next 24hrs... it will have to be watched until it hits the strongest wind shear..

Fun to watch, sure. Have to watch, no. It's a small exposed circulation that will travel into murderous shear in 24 hours or so. It just doesn't have time to do anything significant.

[ALhurricane]

I agree with the fact that there is no LLC with this system. There is nothing but surface divergence occurring now that the thunderstorm activity has collpased and spit out the outflow boundaries. It is just the oppositie of what you would want to see in an organizing low level circulation.

I don't see this becoming a TD anytime soon, if ever.

[NDG]

Here's the latest GARP satellite image with surface plots. Note that the 25kt wind at Barbados is blowing away from the mid-level "center" of the disturbance. Looks like the thunderstorms collapsed and pushed an outflow boundary through Barbados. Certainly no LLC associated with the wave:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lc.gif

How come you don't have the reported winds from Crown point, in the island of Tobago where they have been reporting NNE winds for a few hours now, I think that the very weak low or mid LC just passed to the south of Barbados.

[Aric Dunn]

well the NHC believes its a little more than just a wave ... recon planned for tomorrow WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 12 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL INVEST NEAR 15N AND 69W
FOR 14/1800Z.

[Derek Ortt]

the recon is planned for Friday, not tomorrow, and it almost certainly will be cancelled

[Stormcenter]

This from NWS Miami, FL afternoon discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
235 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 12 2006


Discussion...Quickscat pass around 17z showed tropical wave axis
over South Florida with southeast wind flow over Atlantic waters and the
Bahamas. Infrared satellite images and radar also show a large area of
convection over the Upper Keys and south over Florida Straits
moving northward behind the wave axis. The wave should continue to
move west tonight and be well west of the area by Thursday
afternoon. Will start a decreasing probability of precipitation trend as the tropical wave
is replaced by rather dry air extending as far east as the central
Atlantic. In fact...guidance are indicating probability of precipitation remaining below
climatological values through Saturday.


One question remains...what effect...if any...the active tropical
wave along 57w at the moment will have on the local area? Models
keep the strong deep layer Atlantic ridge extending west to the
Florida Peninsula through at least Saturday and this will tend to
keep this wave to the south of the islands through Saturday. GFS
suggest the ridge could weaken/move east slightly allowing this
wave to inch northward and near South Florida by Sunday. Will
indicate scattered probability of precipitation starting Sunday and for the early part of next
week to account for the increase in moisture behind the wave.

[CrazyC83]

Wow, just the planning of a Recon flight means the NHC sees something in this blob...

[Thunder44]

Barbados still reporting east winds at 24mph at this hour. Pressure dropped 1mb though to 1014mb.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[Aric Dunn]

yes sorry my mistake ... i just cut and pasted .. yes for friday... and certainty in the tropics is not a thing i would ever say... because yesterday this system was not going to survive... and yesterday the shear was supposed to be stronger and now its farther south just sligtly south of the strongest shear. but hey.. you never know!!

[Stormcenter]

yes sorry my mistake ... i just cut and pasted .. yes for friday... and certainty in the tropics is not a thing i would ever say... because yesterday this system was not going to survive... and yesterday the shear was supposed to be stronger and now its farther south just sligtly south of the strongest shear. but hey.. you never know!!

You are 100% correct. In the tropics "You never know" what can happen and should not discount any system based on model predictions or future shear maps. Just my 2 cents.

[Opal storm]

Wow, just the planning of a Recon flight means the NHC sees something in this blob...

I agree,I don't think they would plan sending recon in if this had no chance at developing.

[wxman57]

How come you don't have the reported winds from Crown point, in the island of Tobago where they have been reporting NNE winds for a few hours now, I think that the very weak low or mid LC just passed to the south of Barbados.

No conspiracy, Tobago didn't report that hour. The NNE winds there were very light and likely attributable to local effects -- nearby showers, sea-land breeze, etc. And Tobago is pretty far away from this tiny disturbance.

One more thing (not for you NDG) -- LLC means low level circulation (i.e., a closed surface circulation) not lower-level circulation (circulation aloft but not at the surface. There appears to be a tiny area of rotation above the surface but no evidence of that rotation extending down to the surface. In any case, convection has fallen apart as the disturbance races westward into an increasingly hostile environment ahead of the TUTT.

[brunota2003]

the recon is planned for Friday, not tomorrow, and it almost certainly will be cancelled

If you remember, I believe it was three days ago, they were planning a recon flight into this thing also...and it got scrubbed the next day...

[Aric Dunn]

oh yeah .. i have doing a little research and the reporting station in barbados is at least at the surface but up against and the central mountain ... and the worst thing is its on the south side and any NE NNE N NW winds would give a terribly false reading and does not really help with a system moving to the south of barbados..i also looked what ever records i could find from previous observations from TC that have passed the area before and i found somthing intresting the wind direction throughout a passing of a TC barely changed...

[Aric Dunn]

and the pressure has fallen two millibars in the past couple of hours
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[wx247]

Don't forget that pressures usually fall in the afternoon.

[clfenwi]

As promised, Dr Masters posted an update to his discussion this morning

A tropical wave over Barbados has fallen apart this afternoon after briefly organizing this morning. Strong upper-level winds from the west have disrupted the heavy thunderstorm activity that had built to the east of the system. This wind shear was analyzed at about 20 knots at 2pm EDT by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear page.

The system is moving west at 15-20 mph, and brought wind gusts of 28 mph Barbados this afternoon. St. Lucia will get some gusty winds tonight. Rainfall in these islands will be spotty, since there is very little thunderstorm activity remaining. Thunderstorm activity could re-build tonight or Thursday morning, but the presence of high wind shear to the north and west will likely keep this system from ever developing into a tropical depression.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607

[Jam151]

I am having trouble finding this little system now. All i see is a swirl of low clouds. I guess it could be something in the furure even that is unlikely. The models show absolutely nothing, shear is aweful in the caribbean,etc.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Chances IMO for development are now 1% if not 0%.