Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[GalvestonDuck]

Here is a link. Also notice the southern system is making a comeback. Dont download with dial up. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Ugh, look at all the freaking dry air blowing up from TX to the OH Valley and into the NE where you-know-who was.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ugh, look at all the freaking dry air blowing up from TX to the OH Valley and into the NE where you-know-who was.

It makes you realize that Katrina's impacts were NOT limited to the Gulf coast... even when inland, Katrina still produced many damaging tornadoes and heavy rainfall.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 030030
A. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
B. 02/2331Z (79)
C. 22.0N/4
D. 51.5W/1
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS -02/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING IT A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON PT, MET SUPPORTS.

AODT: T4.5 (UCCR)

PERSINGER



Air Force sat estimates for Tropical Storm Maria..

[Hyperstorm]

The center of Maria appears to be much farther north and west than where Knabb has it positioned. You could easily identify "at least" a Mid-level spin very near 23.5N 52.5W. If it's a MLC, it will likely become the dominant one during the next 24 hours as it appears quite strong. If it's the LLC, it is moving NNW with a tendency more northward.

Convection is developing to the east of the MLC and if this continues, the system will be a hurricane soon. The outflow is expanding and becoming symmetrical around the storm, so development in the short term will likely be influenced by inner-core re-organizations...

[JamesFromMaine2]

I am trying to find something out! Does any one think that it might have a chance of hitting Maine?

[Brent]

I am trying to find something out! Does any one think that it might have a chance of hitting Maine?

Less than 5%.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A deep Cdo has formed over the LLC. In with the outflow becoming much better defined out of all quads. I expect this to become a hurricane with in the next 12 hours. If things remind favable theres a shot she could become quite the storm.

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 031230
A. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
B. 03/1131Z (79)
C. 23.7N/2
D. 53.1W/9
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS -03/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T5.0 (UCCR)

KAMINSKI


Air Force T numbers.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The visible shows a classic Cdo has formed this morning located over the LLC. With banding/outflow forming out of all quads. It also has started to develop the look of a fastly developing system. I would not be suprized to look this afternoon to see a eye. This system has a favable upper level enviorment/warm sea surface temperatures.

I would give this a 60 to 65 mph at this time.

[Thunder44]

Does this look like a 40-50mph TS to any of you?

[Hyperstorm]

196
WHXX01 KWBC 031221
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050903 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050903 1200 050904 0000 050904 1200 050905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 53.2W 25.8N 54.6W 27.5N 55.8W 29.1N 56.6W
BAMM 24.2N 53.2W 25.9N 54.7W 27.7N 55.9W 29.6N 56.8W
A98E 24.2N 53.2W 26.1N 55.1W 28.2N 56.3W 30.8N 56.9W
LBAR 24.2N 53.2W 26.2N 54.4W 28.2N 55.5W 30.0N 56.2W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050905 1200 050906 1200 050907 1200 050908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.1N 57.3W 31.3N 58.1W 31.0N 59.1W 30.7N 60.8W
BAMM 31.2N 57.5W 34.0N 57.3W 34.9N 56.2W 36.4N 56.6W
A98E 33.5N 57.1W 39.1N 51.3W 44.2N 35.8W 49.2N 18.0W
LBAR 32.0N 57.0W 34.9N 56.6W 37.2N 53.0W 38.3N 47.5W
SHIP 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS 72KTS
DSHP 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 53.2W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM

Tropical models are keeping the intensity of Maria at 50 mph. Of course, this is all due to the numbers from TAFB and SAB still estimating 50 mph winds. I'm quite sure there are stronger winds than those estimated since the persistent convection has rotated over what was its MLC yesterday. Just as Matt said, 60-65 mph sounds just about right.

The outflow seems somewhat restricted on the SW quadrant, but that shouldn't keep it from becoming a hurricane during the next 24 hours...

[Hyperstorm]

Does this look like a 40-50mph TS to any of you?

That is due to the fact that they have the center positioned on the south-eastern edge of the deepest convection near 53W. I'm seeing that the earlier MLC near 54W is likely becoming a LLC. If this is confirmed as the true LLC, the current intensity is likely much higher...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

24.8/55.5 moving northwest. The outflow is becoming very well defined over the western quad. This thing is wraping up fast now. In moisture is feeding into it from banding over the south. A hurricane with in 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA (AL142005) ON 20050903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050903 1800 050904 0600 050904 1800 050905 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 54.4W 27.2N 55.6W 29.1N 56.7W 31.0N 57.7W
BAMM 25.5N 54.4W 27.2N 55.4W 29.2N 56.5W 31.2N 57.3W
A98E 25.5N 54.4W 27.7N 56.2W 29.8N 56.9W 31.6N 57.6W
LBAR 25.5N 54.4W 27.6N 55.5W 29.7N 56.6W 32.0N 57.3W
SHIP 60KTS 72KTS 83KTS 89KTS
DSHP 60KTS 72KTS 83KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050905 1800 050906 1800 050907 1800 050908 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 58.3W 36.1N 56.1W 38.9N 47.5W 40.0N 34.3W
BAMM 33.2N 57.8W 36.3N 56.5W 37.9N 51.9W 39.5N 46.4W
A98E 33.4N 57.7W 35.2N 54.9W 37.0N 48.3W 39.2N 39.7W
LBAR 34.1N 57.3W 38.2N 54.9W 40.6N 47.5W 41.2N 37.6W
SHIP 94KTS 98KTS 90KTS 81KTS
DSHP 94KTS 98KTS 90KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.5N LONCUR = 54.4W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 60NM


For some who may be thinking about Maria may get close to the US East Coast nothing of that as this storm soon to be a hurricane is at fishland territory and will continue that way.

[Andrew92]

I was just about to say that it looks just a bit stronger than 60 mph. I am now fully thinking this will be a hurricane either tonight or early tomorrow morning.

-Andrew92

[WeatherEmperor]

[quote="Andrew92"]I was just about to say that it looks just a bit stronger than 60 mph. I am now fully thinking this will be a hurricane either tonight or early tomorrow morning.

-Andrew92[/quote

yup. looks pretty close to a hurricane to me too.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Yep 70 mph at 5 PM.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maria sure has gotten big alot like her sister Katrina started doing before she bombed

[cycloneye]

Based on the excellent presentation on sat pics today and on how rapid this system has increased it's winds I would not be surprised if it becomes not a cat 2 as NHC does at 5 PM but in the 4th major of the season.However thankfully it is at fishland and will mantain as a big fish.