90L Invest

#161 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 5:14 pm

Looks like I was right, the post I made a couple days ago concerning the 99L energy that was dropping SW grew as it got caught up in the Tropical Wave that was moving wnw and enhanced it. Looks like it still needs another day to get organized though and developing a closed low is at least another day away IMO.

#162 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:09 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like I was right, the post I made a couple days ago concerning the 99L energy that was dropping SW grew as it got caught up in the Tropical Wave that was moving wnw and enhanced it. Looks like it still needs another day to get organized though and developing a closed low is at least another day away IMO.

You are right about that and I agree fully.

johngaltfla · #163 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:I can tell all that it was a big rain producer and some gusty winds (I clocked 32 mph) as it passed thru here last night.

Great! We need the rain as all of our last four weeks worth of rain has finally receded off of our sidewalks.

:eek:

#164 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:47 pm

I hope that needed rain goes to that area.

#165 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:55 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like I was right, the post I made a couple days ago concerning the 99L energy that was dropping SW grew as it got caught up in the Tropical Wave that was moving wnw and enhanced it. Looks like it still needs another day to get organized though and developing a closed low is at least another day away IMO.

Looks promising this evening, actually two areas look promising in the tropics.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:35 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 210229
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 180
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA.... THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT... BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

Nothing new in this outlook.Let's see how it appears by morning and by then we will have a better idea about development or not.

Three Blind Mice · #167 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:41 pm

Direction.....Northwest, 15 mph..

#168 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:19 pm

Three Blind Mice wrote:Direction.....Northwest, 15 mph..

Yes that is they keyword here Northwest. We will see how long that lasts.

<RICKY>

Swimdude · #169 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:21 pm

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

I believe the "if necessary" is important as well. In fact, i'm pretty sure they won't be going in... I know you can't tell everything by looks, but this system is horribly disorganized. The TWO even says so itself.

#170 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:26 pm

Swimdude wrote:
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

I believe the "if necessary" is important as well. In fact, i'm pretty sure they won't be going in... I know you can't tell everything by looks, but this system is horribly disorganized. The TWO even says so itself.

Things can change rapidly in the tropics so I wouldn't be too sure of that.

Swimdude · #171 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:30 pm

You're too right, stormcenter. But just judging from tonight, that's my opinion.

#172 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:32 pm

If a low forms at the surface, then the system has potential. But without any low, the potential is low. It rhymes!

Swimdude · #173 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:36 pm

HURAKAN wrote:If a low forms at the surface, then the system has potential. But without any low, the potential is low. It rhymes!

You can't rhyme 'low' with 'low!'

:lol:

DoctorHurricane2003 · #174 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:44 am

I know I said this on another thread but I wasn't paying attention to thread topics. :roll:

But 90L reminds me a LOT of Erin 1995.

#175 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:15 am

What I do notice though is that the model guidance for 90L now brings up Emily rather than 90L.

#176 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:21 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EMILY... LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 80
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTERREY MEXICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HISPANIOLA....THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Thunder44 · #177 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:52 am

From looking at sat pics this morning, it looks like it could be one of those hybrid systems again.

stormie · #178 Postby **stormie** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:49 am

P.K. wrote:

What I do notice though is that the model guidance for 90L now brings up Emily rather than 90L.

I *think* I see 90L here, but I know sometimes these images don't refresh as expected, especially when one links to them. In any event, if I'm really looking at 90L models, I see them going through Central FL.

I bring this up b/c a local met just said the models take 90L to the E Coast of FL then up N and not through FL.

Huh...?

wxwatcher91 · #179 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:52 am

Swimdude wrote:
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY.

I believe the "if necessary" is important as well. In fact, i'm pretty sure they won't be going in... I know you can't tell everything by looks, but this system is horribly disorganized. The TWO even says so itself.

I think it's actually looking pretty good right now and considering it is moving into shear of 5 to 15kt already it has a good chance... when making comments about the potential of storms, dont just look at the satellite... it may look disorganized now to you but satellite isnt the only thing that tells the story

#180 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:08 am

stormie wrote:I *think* I see 90L here, but I know sometimes these images don't refresh as expected, especially when one links to them. In any event, if I'm really looking at 90L models, I see them going through Central FL.

What I meant was the model guidance on the link Luis gave is now brining up guidance for Emily. The image is correct. Does anyone have the full code for 90L? Emily is:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 210622
CHGHUR

and that is what is now showing.

90L Invest

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