2026 ENSO Updates

[wxman57]

Now a 61% of El Nino by the summer. Hopefully this means a quiet season. Last season was VERY quiet, unless you were in Jamaica. It only takes one...

https://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/figure1.png

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2018745144728867143

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2018769289851908168

[cycloneye]

Watching how strong the next MJO will be.

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/2019183031664226686

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I know the seasonal Euro typically has a warm bias but this is a stronger forecast than Feb 2023, and that event ended up on the upper end of the general plume...

[cycloneye]

@AndyHazelton
ECMWF seasonal guidance continues to show El Niño quickly developing by summer. The main uncertainty at this point seems to be in the magnitude of the event (ensemble ranges from a weak/moderate event to a Super Niño).

On the Atlantic side, the SST configuration reminds me of 2021, with an Atlantic Niño forecast but warmth otherwise concentrated in the subtropics. The big difference is 2021 was a La Niña year, so I expect shear and subsidence will be a much bigger issue this year.

Consistent with this, the precip anomalies show a much drier than usual setup across the Atlantic MDR and Caribbean. Surface pressures are forecast to be higher than normal as well.

Overall, I continue to think (at this range) that we'll probably have an Atlantic hurricane season that struggles to reach average, and may even end up well below average (depending on how strong the El Niño is). Still a little ways to go, though.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2019400508419489910

[cycloneye]

Will only say "yikes".

[Iceresistance]

Will only say "yikes".

https://i.imgur.com/ECaAVY0.gif

https://i.imgur.com/lenK0BC.gif

It's one of those things that makes you go

Hopefully, that does limit the NATL season, but remember, all it takes is one!

[cycloneye]

There are warm waters on the 7 day change from both OISST and Coral Reef in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific.

[mixedDanilo.E]

Decent trades popping up on the GFS latest hovmollers forecast. It's February so this is probably La Nina's last stand. I'll be interested to see if and how strong we get a WWB in the spring.

[cycloneye]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Decent trades popping up on the GFS latest hovmollers forecast. It's February so this is probably La Nina's last stand. I'll be interested to see if and how strong we get a WWB in the spring.

The new WWB that may get going in March will ber very important to see how strong El Niño will be down the road.

[mixedDanilo.E]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Decent trades popping up on the GFS latest hovmollers forecast. It's February so this is probably La Nina's last stand. I'll be interested to see if and how strong we get a WWB in the spring.

The new WWB that may get going in March will ber very important to see how strong El Niño will be down the road.

Is there actually a WWB that is being forecasted in the models right now?

[cycloneye]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Decent trades popping up on the GFS latest hovmollers forecast. It's February so this is probably La Nina's last stand. I'll be interested to see if and how strong we get a WWB in the spring.

The new WWB that may get going in March will ber very important to see how strong El Niño will be down the road.

Is there actually a WWB that is being forecasted in the models right now?

The MJO will be in the best position to begin the process according to CFS.

[cycloneye]

Now that CPC is using RONI for the data, see the past few years classifications.

[cycloneye]

Febuary NMME run for ASO.

August:



September:



October:

[cycloneye]

The PDO factor.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2020184495882932455

[869MB]

The PDO factor.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/2020184495882932455

Due to these latest anomalies, I’ll be a little surprised if January’s PDO index results don’t flip to positive, even if it's just slightly. We should find out on this forthcoming Monday morning around 10AM.

And even if it does trend positive over the next couple of months, I’m beginning to have some doubts about what the atmospheric response will be for my region later this year going into 2027 even if we can achieve a +PDO/+ENSO combo later on this year after some of the discussions between Ntwx and USTropics a few pages back.

[Kingarabian]

FYI the PDO tends to warm during winter and early spring periods. Regardless of phase. But it would be a big step if we can see an actual positive reading soon.

[WeatherBoy2000]

FYI the PDO tends to warm during winter and early spring periods. Regardless of phase. But it would be a big step if we can see an actual positive reading soon.

According to NOAA, the pdo has actually gone further negative since December. January recorded a monthly reading of -1.19 vs -0.98 back in December:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Whether this changes for Febuary remains to be seen, but the waters off Japan have been relentlessly warm for the past several years which has made any transition to a proper +pdo difficult.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

FYI the PDO tends to warm during winter and early spring periods. Regardless of phase. But it would be a big step if we can see an actual positive reading soon.

According to NOAA, the pdo has actually gone further negative since December. January recorded a monthly reading of -1.19 vs -0.98 back in December:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

Whether this changes for Febuary remains to be seen, but the waters off Japan have been relentlessly warm for the past several years which has made any transition to a proper +pdo difficult.

Yeah the stripe of warmth emanating from Japan is definitely muddling things a bit. We'll have to see if that fades eventually, then we'll likely start to see the PDO index approach positive levels.

Fwiw the CanSIPS, NMME and seasonal Euro actually show the "warm blob" persisting despite +PMM arising. It's a bit of a strange look, could continue to weigh the PDO index down if that's the case.