Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[Travorum]

Also, if for whatever godforsaken reason this system becomes a Category 5, 2024 will join 2005 in being the only two recorded seasons with more than 2 Category 5 systems.

If that does happen 2024 will also break the records for both earliest and latest category 5 formation, beating Emily and Cuba 1932 respectively. Fittingly, both would be only the 2nd Category 5 formations on record in July and November respectively.

[tolakram]

Disturbance on the right, this nice swirl in the middle.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

View of the disturbance being tracked
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Greater_Antilles-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[chaser1]

FWIW, I'm still not seeing any visible satellite evidence of increased organization or additional concentrated convection that would appear to be co-located with the partial ASCAT that xironman posted earlier this a.m. Perhaps that may occur this evening as a net result of tropopause cooling and diurnal max.

[cycloneye]

Invest is imminent.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three
days while the system moves slowly westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the
disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the
weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward
by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[chaser1]

Disturbance on the right, this nice swirl in the middle.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

View of the disturbance being tracked
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Greater_Antilles-02-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Great view! Resolution aside, looking at both your link and visible satellite from Tidbits, I'm starting to think that T.T. may be not updating as quickly?

[zzzh]

12z Euro has it moving very close to the Nicaragua coast. Models are trending that way except the GFS.

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro has it moving very close to the Nicaragua coast. Models are trending that way except the GFS.

makes landfall in south Florida at 988mb

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

12z Euro has it moving very close to the Nicaragua coast. Models are trending that way except the GFS.

Nice, I'd take that solution! Please share link? All I can see on the EC Fast is the 24 hr forecast on Tropical Tidbits. It's 12Z doesn't go out nearly far enough to depict the disturbance nearing C. America, and the AIFS is rather pointless given its very low resolution

[SFLcane]

[GCANE]

Development in the W Carib is just about as ideal as you can get.
Massive anti-cyclone overhead with tons of EPAC high TPW air streaming in.
Not to mention over the highest OHC water in the Atlantic and a relatively cold upper troposphere.
Wouldn't be surprised this may break Wilma's record or at least get very close.
I think a lot of people will be freaking out in the days ahead when they see this possibly heading to FL.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looking at the models this doesn't exist and it's not in the area that it's supposed to start in, probably a case of it been too small and not getting seen.. Going to be interesting to see how the models pan out

[SFLcane]

Euro hits sfl as pontentially a cat 2...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro hits sfl as pontentially a cat 2...

https://i.postimg.cc/kX9hLyM9/BBBB.png

At least this is 8 days out, still room for error (we hope).

[Travorum]

https://i.postimg.cc/VLB2NVZd/nnnnn.png

Looking at these ensembles it seems like the only big question left wrt future intensity is land interaction. Almost every ensemble member that avoids Central America develops into at least a hurricane, and almost every ensemble member that interacts with land is put on a trajectory that struggles to produce even a tropical storm (EDIT: looking at a gif of the ensemble tracks this may be the inverse relationship, where a faster developing system doesn't go as far west. I can't quite tell). That makes sense when the OHC in the WCar looks like this:

[cycloneye]

Recon starting tommorow.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 13/1900Z A. 14/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 13/1500Z C. 14/0800Z
D. 16.5N 77.5W D. 16.8N 80.8W
E. 13/1830Z TO 13/2200Z E. 14/1100Z TO 14/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0800Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0530Z.

[ineedsnow]

12z EPS is ugly for Florida

[xironman]

Looking at the models this doesn't exist and it's not in the area that it's supposed to start in, probably a case of it been too small and not getting seen.. Going to be interesting to see how the models pan out

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6939/6j1QzE.gif [/url]

Its a swirl in the middle of a desert.

[aspen]

12z Euro has it moving very close to the Nicaragua coast. Models are trending that way except the GFS.

Now I’m convinced how far west future 99L/Sara gets on the models is tied to its intensity. GFS is stronger in the short term and doesn’t get as far west as the weaker Euro/CMC/ICON. Probably model bias on display here. If we see something develop in 24-48 hours then the GFS is probably right.

[jlauderdal]

Development in the W Carib is just about as ideal as you can get.
Massive anti-cyclone overhead with tons of EPAC high TPW air streaming in.
Not to mention over the highest OHC water in the Atlantic and a relatively cold upper troposphere.
Wouldn't be surprised this may break Wilma's record or at least get very close.
I think a lot of people will be freaking out in the days ahead when they see this possibly heading to FL.

Amazing to see how favorable it is for the next week until the trough comes in, its mid-november.