Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[Aric Dunn]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

yeah, trending towards it western members.

[drezee]

quite the westward jump on the 12z Euro through hour 120.

Bottom half of the circulation plays with the loop current

[drezee]

The 144 will get this board going....wait for it...

[Aric Dunn]

slowly turning but there is nothing to pick it up. except for maybe a short wave in there somewhere.

[TheProfessor]

Well the 12z Euro just made me a bit uncomfortable here in Covington, La

[ColdMiser123]

12z Euro is further west than 0z and a tick stronger.

[drezee]

The 144 will get this board going....wait for it...

Lets clear the oil rigs...60 - 70 mph...gas prices go up...and Barry would be in no hurry

[stormlover2013]

Still plenty of time, still don’t have a trend but if ridge keeps building would be more west

[psyclone]

Texas is "due" for a July hurricane...it's been awhile...maybe Dolly in '08?

[stormlover2013]

Man models are so spread out lol lll

[shah83]

It goes north here at 168, but the lack of a real take-out trough or something means bad things.

[stormlover2013]

Looking forward to seeing the euro ensembles

[gatorcane]

Huge spread between the Euro and GFS but as is usually the case the models will likely start trending closer to each other. That is the GFS would trend more west while the Euro more east. Given the high degree of uncertainty, the respective ensembles may be the ones to follow.

[TheProfessor]

12z Euro actually strengthens the storm a bit over land on weathermodels.com This track would be quite catastrophic for an already high Mississippi River.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan site has a floater for this.

[PTrackerLA]

Well the 12z Euro goes right over me, time to start paying attention. I've had a bad feeling about the gulf this year we set several all time record warm low temps for the month of June. If this system gets to tap that fuel under a ridge, look out!

[stormlover2013]

I just don’t see this coming this far west.

[Hurricaneman]

I just don’t see this coming this far west.

I wouldn’t rule that out yet so be vigilant and keep an eye on the NHC forecast

[stormlover2013]

I just don’t see this coming this far west.

I wouldn’t rule that out yet so be vigilant and keep an eye on the NHC forecast

Heck I live in the upper Texas coach and right now I’m st gulf shores for vacation.

[wxman57]

I'm not buying the EC's solution. It's certainly the outlier, unless you count the ICON, which I've never trusted. I see that the 12Z UKMET has a TS moving inland near Panama City, FL Saturday afternoon. I've trusted the EC before in this kind of a situation and it was wrong. More of a gut feeling, for now. Maybe a >50% chance of a TD in the NE Gulf Thu/Fri. Could be a weak TS moving into the FL Panhandle Sat.