2016 EPAC Season

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like the Euro is weakening.
I'm going to bet on another no-show this time around.
Is it possible that "Agatha" might not make an appearance until July?

[Yellow Evan]

UKMET has not backed off from the 0z to 12z runs, unlike the ECMWF.

[Yellow Evan]

NOGAPS and FIM8 seem to be caving towards development on the 12z runs, albeit weak.

[cycloneye]

What a contrast of seasons on this date June 13 as 2015 already had two cat 4 hurricanes (Andres and Blanca) and one cat 1 Carlos.So far 2016 has 0.

Hurricane Andres.



Hurricane Blanca.



Hurricane Carlos.

[Yellow Evan]

Long-term, CFS seems to agree on a more moist EPAC next month with shear levels subsiding considerably by September.

[NDG]

Surface feature looks very broad while higher vorticity seems to be heading towards a track very close to the coast, which is why the Euro is now trending weaker. UL don't look the best, IMO.

Besides this area this basin as a whole has MSLPs higher than average, and instability has been running below average.

[Yellow Evan]

At least the GFS shows an actual low in okay environmental conditions. if the center gets going and the system consolidates under the anticyclone and closer to the coast, as suggested by the ECMWF, wind shear is more likely to be low, but if this develops further west, I'd favor the GFS/CMC solution.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[tolakram]

We need an invest to test the storm map. Come on EPAC!

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro shows nothing now. 00z GFS still shows nothing. Development seems highly unlikely now.

[TheStormExpert]

Still 20/50. Expect it to come down @ 5am TWO unless 06z GFS shows something.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the
coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak area of low pressure is expected to develop southwest of the
coast of southern Mexico during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF developing this first west and weaker. This is interesting.

[NDG]

Looks like a whole mess this morning, surface shows just a weak elongated broad area of low pressure, Euro is trending weaker and weaker on each run. IMO, chances of a named TS coming out of this is lowering.

Late starting seasons over the EPAC end up having a below average ACE for the season, per Dr Phil K.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 3894510592

[Yellow Evan]

If the center forms where the globals are showing it, forget anything beyond a very messy TD/weak TS. If the center forms further west, however, the system could be stronger.

[gatorcane]

JB talks about GFS.

@BigJoeBastardi · 1m1 minute ago 

Hard to believe how bad the GFS has been against the European on the hemispheric 5 day. Embarrassing

Maybe JB wants to take this tweet back!

Looks like a BIG bust for the Euro in progress with this EPAC system.

The CMC while largely not useful is actually helpful in this situation since if it is lackluster on development (as it has been with this system) and it develops nearly ANYTHING, then development may not happen.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the disturbance
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

The CMC while largely not useful is actually helpful in this situation since if it is lackluster on development (as it has been with this system) and it develops nearly ANYTHING, then development may not happen.

CMC isn't reliable for development period. It tends to develop storms that don't form, but I've seen it miss lots of systems or severely underude their intensity.

[RL3AO]

JB talks about GFS.

@BigJoeBastardi · 1m1 minute ago 

Hard to believe how bad the GFS has been against the European on the hemispheric 5 day. Embarrassing

Maybe JB wants to take this tweet back!

Looks like a BIG bust for the Euro in progress with this EPAC system.

The CMC while largely not useful is actually helpful in this situation since if it is lackluster on development (as it has been with this system) and it develops nearly ANYTHING, then development may not happen.

I'm sure he was referring to the big picture, in which the GFS has had a disasterous June.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF