2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[euro6208]

I understand that the majority of this forum is from the USA and reading post is like the USA is the center of the Hurricane universe but how about the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, Canada and Mexico?

[cycloneye]

I understand that the majority of this forum is from the USA and reading post is like the USA is the center of the Hurricane universe but how about the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, Canada and Mexico?

About the Caribbean,you can't find a better place to look for weather details from there in this thread. On a lesser degree the other places you mention are discussed but when a threat to those places occur,the discussions about those areas goes up.

[wxman57]

I understand that the majority of this forum is from the USA and reading post is like the USA is the center of the Hurricane universe but how about the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, Canada and Mexico?

I'd say that conditions across the Caribbean this hurricane season look quite hostile, particularly the eastern to central Caribbean. With such cool water, high pressure and dry air extending all the way to Africa I'd be surprised if there is any significant hurricane threat this season.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at how things are going I wouldn't be surprised if there is a pre season or early season TS in the Gulf as there seems to be a lot of instability and warmer than normal water temps, but will the shear cooperate

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Latest March AMO reading came in at -0.106. That is the most negative reading since early 2009 (that year however flipped back warm by summer).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I understand that the majority of this forum is from the USA and reading post is like the USA is the center of the Hurricane universe but how about the Caribbean islands, Bermuda, Canada and Mexico?

Any tropical system that reaches, or threatens to reach, the Canadian Maritimes (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island) and/or the New England states (Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine) I cover extensively at my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/

My archives deal with these systems in great detail since 2005.

[ninel conde]

LC continues to be bullish in his newsletter saying his summer forecast coming out apr 23 will be considerably different from most media and academic forecasts for tropical activity and he says many forecasts of below normal activity will be found wanting if present trends continue.

[LarryWx]

LC continues to be bullish in his newsletter saying his summer forecast coming out apr 23 will be considerably different from most media and academic forecasts for tropical activity and he says many forecasts of below normal activity will be found wanting if present trends continue.

The main reason from what I can tell that he's going to go more active in the tropics than others is that he seems to be thinking it will end up either neutral or even possibly La Niña per his analogs for at least the bulk of the season. That is interesting considering model projections strongly favoring El Niño as well as how warm is the subsurface. I think it will be El Niño fwiw.

[ninel conde]

he also mentions how strong the tropical waves have been.

[wxman57]

he also mentions how strong the tropical waves have been.

Which tropical waves?

[psyclone]

LC continues to be bullish in his newsletter saying his summer forecast coming out apr 23 will be considerably different from most media and academic forecasts for tropical activity and he says many forecasts of below normal activity will be found wanting if present trends continue.

Sometimes it pays to swim upstream but I highly doubt that will be the case this time. I will be astonished if this season winds up anywhere north of well below normal.

[Ntxw]

It's always possible a 1953 type season or 1969 could occur with a Nino and colder AMO. That would support LC's stance however him calling for a Nina is extremely unlikely to near impossible this late in the game given the necessary requirements to bring one for 2015. Neutral is a possibility however not likely also given how far we are into the Nino.

[CrazyC83]

Anyway here is my thinking:

* Forget Cape Verde. Any waves off Africa would likely roast to death. I don't see a single named storm coming from such waves.

* The Caribbean may not be as hostile, but getting systems there will be a challenge as waves collapse and die in the deep tropics. Maybe one or two storms, especially late in the season? Or an EPAC-crossover wave?

* I think the majority of storms, including any hurricanes that form, should come from non-tropical sources. Off the east coast and in the subtropical Atlantic look like the best places for such, with the Gulf a possible source as well.

[Yellow Evan]

Good news:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3h3 hours ago
CFS showing -NAO during 10-25 day period. Shifts storm track south relative to last 4 months. Could change Atl. SSTs

[ninel conde]

he also mentions how strong the tropical waves have been.

Which tropical waves?

he mentions the large tropical wave over colombia, peru, and ecuador and the equatorial convection over south america.

[Hurricaneman]

he also mentions how strong the tropical waves have been.

Which tropical waves?

he mentions the large tropical wave over colombia, peru, and ecuador and the equatorial convection over south america.

based on that I think think his forecast could be wrong wrong but not because of the tropical waves but the fact that La Nina looks like its going to be nowhere to be found and maybe a strengthening El Nino instead but as we all know the El Nino could strengthen up until June and completely crap out we just wont know until hurricane season is happening

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

I think it's just best to see how ENSO plays out.

But then again... ENSO was neutral-warm these past 2 years and conditions were still hostile.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it's just best to see how ENSO plays out.

But then again... ENSO was neutral-warm these past 2 years and conditions were still hostile.

We were El Nino last year. And 2013 was cool neutral.

[Kingarabian]

I think it's just best to see how ENSO plays out.

But then again... ENSO was neutral-warm these past 2 years and conditions were still hostile.

We were El Nino last year. And 2013 was cool neutral.

El-Nino from September. Everything before that was just for show because the atmosphere and the Nino regions were not all on the same page.

2013 had plenty of Nino talk as well.

[Yellow Evan]

I think it's just best to see how ENSO plays out.

But then again... ENSO was neutral-warm these past 2 years and conditions were still hostile.

We were El Nino last year. And 2013 was cool neutral.

El-Nino from September. Everything before that was just for show because the atmosphere and the Nino regions were not all on the same page.

2013 had plenty of Nino talk as well.

2012 might be what you're thinking of. Even though some models had an El Nino in 2013, I don't think anyone seriously expected one.