2015 EPAC Season

[CaliforniaResident]

If we don't see a named storm in the EPAC by the end of this month, I'm going to recant my 33/22/11 season forecast and also my forecast for a Southern California landfall in early to mid October.

So you're saying the presence of a named storm this month will affect a California landfall by October?

If we are going to have a superhyperactive season (which would be required for any sort of landfall in California), we have to start early and considering that the average first EPAC named storm is in May, if we don't get one by the end of the month, we'll have a late start.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we don't see a named storm in the EPAC by the end of this month, I'm going to recant my 33/22/11 season forecast and also my forecast for a Southern California landfall in early to mid October.

So you're saying the presence of a named storm this month will affect a California landfall by October?

If we are going to have a superhyperactive season (which would be required for any sort of landfall in California), we have to start early and considering that the average first EPAC named storm is in May, if we don't get one by the end of the month, we'll have a late start.

Not all of the most active seasons had an early start, like 1997. Some also of the inactive seasons start early.

I was also talking about your Cali landfall, not the overall seasonal forecasts.

[Yellow Evan]

If we are going to have a superhyperactive season (which would be required for any sort of landfall in California), we have to start early and considering that the average first EPAC named storm is in May, if we don't get one by the end of the month, we'll have a late start.

Not all of the most active seasons had an early start, like 1997. Some also of the inactive seasons start early.

I was also talking about your Cali landfall, not the overall seasonal forecasts.

1997 isn't a record hurricane season that people make it out to be.

In my set, I have the average 1st storm listed as May 29. A start of +-5 days isn't that significant.

Now, I sitll have my doubts on a 33/22/11 season.

[Yellow Evan]

Ensemble support for this is through the roof.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we are going to have a superhyperactive season (which would be required for any sort of landfall in California), we have to start early and considering that the average first EPAC named storm is in May, if we don't get one by the end of the month, we'll have a late start.

Not all of the most active seasons had an early start, like 1997. Some also of the inactive seasons start early.

I was also talking about your Cali landfall, not the overall seasonal forecasts.

1997 isn't a record hurricane season that people make it out to be.

In my set, I have the average 1st storm listed as May 29. A start of +-5 days isn't that significant.

Now, I sitll have my doubts on a 33/22/11 season.

I never said 1997 was the record highest, all I said was that it was among the most active on record. Well, the point there is that a season does not have to start early nor late to become an active season, or even if the first storm forms a slight deviation from the average. Speaking of a 33/22/11 season, I think that's not very likely. El Niño years tend to be quality-over-quantity years in the Pacific, like 1991 and 1997. Crazy active years are usually during weak events or warm neutral, like 1982 (although it later exploded to a super Niño near the end of the season), 1985, 1990, 1992, 1994 and 2014.

[Yellow Evan]

I never said 1997 was the record highest, all I said was that it was among the most active on record. Well, the point there is that a season does not have to start early nor late to become an active season, or even if the first storm forms a slight deviation from the average. Speaking of a 33/22/11 season, I think that's not very likely. El Niño years tend to be quality-over-quantity years in the Pacific, like 1991 and 1997. Crazy active years are usually during weak events or warm neutral, like 1982 (although it later exploded to a super Niño near the end of the season), 1992, 1994 and 2014.

This I agree with and I've pointed the same thing out a couple times on here.

I will say though the most active a seaosn has been that has had a start after the 1st week of June is 20 storms.

So, if we get nothing by June 5 or so, I'd only get concerned then. And all signs are pointing to something next week.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC also has Andres.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF shows it for a second run in a row.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS



6z GFS

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is once again with it starting on May 28.

[cycloneye]

Not for area that models develop.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure could form over the weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
subsequent development while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

^ That area they were talking about on Twitter. Really early for a CPAC storm though.

[Yellow Evan]

I have some doubts about the 0/20 system given that shear is high at this time of year.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF has it now for a third-run in a row:

[cycloneye]

18z GFS has a landfall as a hurricane near Acapulco.I don't pay attention to those early model scenarios in terms of tracks because it will change a lot.Imagine the large swing between Cabo San Lucas and Acapulco in only 3 runs.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form during the next few days well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Environmental conditions are expected to conducive for some gradual
development of the system while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

FTR, here is the 18z GFS for entertainment purposes only.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has a landfall as a hurricane near Acapulco.I don't pay attention to those early model scenarios in terms of tracks because it will change a lot.Imagine the large swing between Cabo San Lucas and Acapulco in only 3 runs.

I'd put more weight into this since the GFS is in good agreement with its ensembles.





Still, it's 10 days out, so nothing is set in stone. Something to keep an eye on though.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
currently not conducive for development of this system. However,
they are expected to become conducive for some slow development
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
couple of days well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of the system over the weekend
while the low moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFs like the 18z run.



6z GFS a little weaker and more W