2014 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we see development in this basin within this month, it would not be greater than tropical depression then. We would see the parade start by June or July.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

May 2014 Unofficial Typhoon Season Forecast*

EXPLANATION
The 2014 WPAC typhoon season is most likely to be above-average in activity. However, activity is expected to be less over the far western part of the basin, and is to be concentrated on the eastern parts east of 130ºE. Storm formation is expected to be closer to the equator, and farther East than normal. This is due to the different placement of the West Pac High and increased cloudiness near the IDL. Conditions over the East parts will be more favorable, having lower wind shear and warmer SSTs as a result of an El Niño.

ACTIVITY NUMBERS
27 tropical storms
16 STRONG typhoons
7 VERY STRONG or higher

390 ACE (very active)

Official Classification of Typhoon Intensity
In Knots
<33 kts : TD
34-47 : Tropical storm
48-63 : Severe tropical storm
64-84 : Strong typhoon
85-104 : Very strong typhoon
105> : Violent typhoon

Unofficial Classification of ACE
In Units
<200 : Inactive
200-230 : Very Weak
230-265 : Weak
265-280 : Below average
280-320 : Average
320-335 : Above average
335-370 : Active
370-400 : Very Active
400 > : Hyperactive

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[euro6208]

From a record high in 1964 to a record low in 2010, we have seen an increase since with 25 TS in 2012 but overall thread is declining since the 90's...



2 years with highest number of STY's, 1965 and 1997 with ZERO in 1974 again overall thread is declining since the 90's...





Interesting that August is the busiest month according to this graphic but any month is just as dangerous!

*1959 to 2012

*2013 Not included yet

*When 2014 is all said and done, we may see a spike in the numbers above with el nino looming!

[euro6208]

It's really dead out there with models showing a storm free month...

[stormkite]

When the monsoon is active no doubt it will pickup.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

When the monsoon is active no doubt it will pickup.

Monsoon-influenced typhoons are more likely during El Niño events. Other than that, we could also see higher SSTs, lower pressures and lower vertical wind shear over the eastern part, meaning extremely favorable conditions for development this season!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

From a record high in 1964 to a record low in 2010, we have seen an increase since with 25 TS in 2012 but overall thread is declining since the 90's...



2 years with highest number of STY's, 1965 and 1997 with ZERO in 1974 again overall thread is declining since the 90's...





Interesting that August is the busiest month according to this graphic but any month is just as dangerous!

*1959 to 2012

*2013 Not included yet

*When 2014 is all said and done, we may see a spike in the numbers above with el nino looming!

1965 and 1997 were both strong El Niño years. If this year would be one, we could have a tie with the most number of super typhoons but it is early to tell.

What was the activity of 1972 and 1982? Those too were strong El Niños.


1974 was in a series of 3 years of La Niña. Those three years were inactive.

1998, a year after the powerful, record-breaking 1997 El Niño event, had the 2nd most inactive season, only behind the strong La Niña of 2010 which followed one of the strongest El Niño events since 1982 and 1997.

[euro6208]

Does anyone has the stat of how the ACE was in 1997 thru April? 2014 so far is at 0.8575.

Monthly Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index

First 3 months of the year is ZERO which i find hard to believe because in January, we had Tropical Storm Hannah.

April had 46.5625 so i'm guessing ACE through April was near 47.5...


2014 stuck at wimpy 11.5425 with no gains this month...


Not sure if i'm reading this right though...


http://policlimate.com/tropical/ace.dat

[stormkite]

Euro6208 and Xtyphooncyclonex already know how the Wespac works like the back of there hand. Anybody else from other basins who are interested in the region that has the highest frequency of tropical cyclones on earth This link is for you.





http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropi ... eather.htm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Does anyone has the stat of how the ACE was in 1997 thru April? 2014 so far is at 0.8575.

Monthly Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index

First 3 months of the year is ZERO which i find hard to believe because in January, we had Tropical Storm Hannah.

April had 46.5625 so i'm guessing ACE through April was near 47.5...


2014 stuck at wimpy 11.5425 with no gains this month...


Not sure if i'm reading this right though...


http://policlimate.com/tropical/ace.dat

Compare it to an even wimpier 2009 and the second strongest El Niño of 1982, but 1982 was unimpressive from the start but the El Niño exploded later on.

Just wait, euro6208 as this basin will explode, so will the El Niño. Never mind 1997, that was extraordinary and too impressive even from the start. That's also why I put a way higher ACE than normal but lower than 1997. The 2004 season has a high ACE but was having the weakest El Niño on record, and was Modoki!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just hope for at least a category 3 fishie to develop within the next 3 weeks, which may bring westerlies just the right time the MJO arrives and be with the Kelvin Wave which would cause significant, rapid and massive warming over the ENSO regions. The closer to the equator and IDL, the better. At least less damage expected this time.

[dexterlabio]

I just hope for at least a category 3 fishie to develop within the next 3 weeks, which may bring westerlies just the right time the MJO arrives and be with the Kelvin Wave which would cause significant, rapid and massive warming over the ENSO regions. The closer to the equator and IDL, the better. At least less damage expected this time.

I don't know if the ensuing El Nino means less damage for us in SE Asia when we talk about drought alone. A lot of industries in Visayas and Mindanao will be paralyzed if 2014 El Nino will turn into a 1982 or 1997 kind.

[cycloneye]

No scientific thing here but only my take and that is I have a feeling the sleeping giant will wake up soon. (Late May or first 2 weeks of June)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just hope for at least a category 3 fishie to develop within the next 3 weeks, which may bring westerlies just the right time the MJO arrives and be with the Kelvin Wave which would cause significant, rapid and massive warming over the ENSO regions. The closer to the equator and IDL, the better. At least less damage expected this time.

I don't know if the ensuing El Nino means less damage for us in SE Asia when we talk about drought alone. A lot of industries in Visayas and Mindanao will be paralyzed if 2014 El Nino will turn into a 1982 or 1997 kind.

Yes about more damage from the El Niño. But if typhoons strike, they would not be as damaging as 2009, 2004 and 2006. Visayas and Mindanao typically get spared from direct typhoon strikes. That's the only better thing. Things are going to be different now as this year is expected to be a traditional El Niño unlike the past years (2006 was quite confusing) ....

[stormkite]

No scientific thing here but only my take and that is I have a feeling the sleeping giant will wake up soon. (Late May or first 2 weeks of June)

Last sighting 0.42N 145W heading West

[dexterlabio]

Yes about more damage from the El Niño. But if typhoons strike, they would not be as damaging as 2009, 2004 and 2006. Visayas and Mindanao typically get spared from direct typhoon strnorthat'sPhiliy better thing. Things are going to be different now as this year is expected to be a traditional El Niño unlike the past years (2006 was quite confusing) ....

We can't be so sure about that..there were moderate to strong east-based El Nino that turned out to be more damaging in SE Asia in terms of typhoon hits, specifically the Philippines. In 1957 and 1965, there were Cat5's that brushed northern Philippines and Taiwan. And afaik, El Nino has same effects in Asia whether modoki or traditional...

[euro6208]

Yes about more damage from the El Niño. But if typhoons strike, they would not be as damaging as 2009, 2004 and 2006. Visayas and Mindanao typically get spared from direct typhoon strnorthat'sPhiliy better thing. Things are going to be different now as this year is expected to be a traditional El Niño unlike the past years (2006 was quite confusing) ....

We can't be so sure about that..there were moderate to strong east-based El Nino that turned out to be more damaging in SE Asia in terms of typhoon hits, specifically the Philippines. In 1957 and 1965, there were Cat5's that brushed northern Philippines and Taiwan. And afaik, El Nino has same effects in Asia whether modoki or traditional...

La Nina, El Nino, Neutral is equally devastating no matter what...No season is safe in this area.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yes about more damage from the El Niño. But if typhoons strike, they would not be as damaging as 2009, 2004 and 2006. Visayas and Mindanao typically get spared from direct typhoon strnorthat'sPhiliy better thing. Things are going to be different now as this year is expected to be a traditional El Niño unlike the past years (2006 was quite confusing) ....

We can't be so sure about that..there were moderate to strong east-based El Nino that turned out to be more damaging in SE Asia in terms of typhoon hits, specifically the Philippines. In 1957 and 1965, there were Cat5's that brushed northern Philippines and Taiwan. And afaik, El Nino has same effects in Asia whether modoki or traditional...

La Nina, El Nino, Neutral is equally devastating no matter what...No season is safe in this area.

The area I am talking about is central and southern Philippines, and not the rest of the country and Asia. And yes no matter what devastating. The last time we in Visayas and Mindanao had an el Niño typhoon (120km or more) was Utor. Though storms during el Niño aren't really deadly in Vismin, one was the deadliest among the group and is TS Thelma, which killed 8000 or more people. Overall we are quite spared during these years (el Niño) but does not absolutely spare us from deadly storms.

[euro6208]

There has not been any tropical cyclone activity during the past week, which is not too unusual for May. There are three areas worth monitoring over the next week or so: the Bay of Bengal, the eastern Pacific, and the western North Pacific. The first two areas are associated in part with atmospheric Kelvin waves and contain active tropical disturbances at this time. Both of these areas have a low to moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. The area well east of the Philippines has been highlighted in some guidance, though the chances of development there are currently low. The climatology in this region suggests more activity, however, over the next few weeks.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last week models were so excited (only GFS, NAVGEM & JMA) for development when the conditions were just too unfavorable, same thing in the other side (EPac), and instead just a load of unsuccessful invests in the EPac and not a single invest in the WPac.