Disturbance over the eastern Atantic

[KWT]

I think the two will probably interact from the looks of the how long it takes, if the one at 30-40W does get going you'll probably see shear give anything else just behind it somewhat of a hard time.

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing over the vorticity

[wxman57]

Could be the next named storm, if it beats the possible storm in the northern Gulf early next week.

[blazess556]

Could be the next named storm, if it beats the possible storm in the northern Gulf early next week.

would the storm in the gulf be from 92L?

[Brent]

Could be the next named storm, if it beats the possible storm in the northern Gulf early next week.

What Gulf storm?

[srainhoutx]

Models have been showing this feature for several days. Tail end of a boundry in August.

[RL3AO]

Could be the next named storm, if it beats the possible storm in the northern Gulf early next week.

What Gulf storm?

Think there is supposed to be a stalled front in the Northern GOM of off the SE coast.

[lonelymike]

From Tally AFD:
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A MEAN RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH MEAN TROUGHS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE BRIEFLY...AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. AFTER THE
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK TO THE EAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY MID WEEK...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WITH GENERALLY CLIMO POPS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT. A
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A TROPICAL WAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO ARE FORECASTING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.

[blazess556]

Could be the next named storm, if it beats the possible storm in the northern Gulf early next week.

What Gulf storm?

Think there is supposed to be a stalled front in the Northern GOM of off the SE coast.

you can see the stalled front on the satellite imagery. it is still over land.

[lonelymike]

Mobile AFD:

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE
TO PROG A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO RETROGRADE ACROSS THE
GULF BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS THE LATEST GFS PROGS IT TO ENTER THE TEXAS COAST
THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF PROGS IT TO ENTER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY
MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AND MAINTAINED THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. 95/TM

[HURAKAN]

I suggest we should create a different thread for the Gulf feature, this is for the EATL disturbance.

[Gustywind]

Back to topic please

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

347
ABNT20 KNHC 060006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Looks to become 93L soon, if it isn't already (NRL is down too or still up?)

[KWT]

Ahhh finally mentioned...

I suspect this will be our next named system before anything else comes along and probably will be invested pretty soon, esp given a new convective burst is going up near the higher Vort region.

Still got a while to go but I think with this one we haven't got much to worry about in terms of land impact, should go fish.

[HURAKAN]

Unofficial INVEST 24L

[ConvergenceZone]

I would think that in a week or 2 the CV systems will stop going fish. But it will probably take another week or two until that happens.

[KWT]

Yeah CZ, FWIW the GFS ensembles have been trying to build ridging in recently in about 12-14 days time which concurs with the CMC...I'd be curious to know what the eCM does...

Anyway given they've made a test invest on this, it'll probably be invested in the next 24hrs, thats usually been the way thats worked out on other times.

[HURAKAN]

It has been an unofficial invest for a few days.