EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[Macrocane]

OK that really catches my attention as Central America could be affected, let's see if the models are consistent on the next runs although we cannot deny that they're smelling something.

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

1)go to that link
2)click GFDL
3)advance it to past 60 hours.

The system shows up.

[HURAKAN]

A weak low pressure center appears over the Caribbean

[KWT]

Yeah that is pretty much as the models were expecting Hurakan from the looks of things.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

850 MB vorticity over the Gulf of Fonseca:



Upper Divergence:



Lower Convergence:

[somethingfunny]

Looking good. Did anybody take up tolakram on his bet?

[KWT]

Its certainly interesting, though Joe B expects the whole lot to lift NE into the SW Cairrbean over the week, so both sides of the basins need watching still...

Bet this is an invest soon enough...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking good. Did anybody take up tolakram on his bet?

Can you show me? i cant find it.

I say...Invest by Wednesday
TD by Saturday.

[BigA]

It seems to be slowly becoming a consensus that there is a good chance that a tropical cyclone could develop in the extreme east Pacific during the next four days. From there, if said system forms, it seems that Mexico or Central America could be affected.

Some of the models seem to be indicating that the system, or at least a chunk of energy from it, could be pulled northeastward into the Caribbean.

In terms of the Pacific system forming, most of the models seem to be on board to some extent (ECMWF, CMC, NAM, GFS, WRF, perhaps some others).

[somethingfunny]

This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.

[KWT]

Some of the models seem to be indicating that the system, or at least a chunk of energy from it, could be pulled northeastward into the Caribbean.

In terms of the Pacific system forming, most of the models seem to be on board to some extent (ECMWF, CMC, NAM, GFS, WRF, perhaps some others).

Yep, there is a decent enough disturbance already present to suggest this is a real system that could develop...

As for the first point, well something like that happened with the start of the 2008 season so its quite possible...

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is the first EPAC storm. I don't care where it's showing it develop, for the 3rd (that I've been paying attention too) year in a row the models are showing something developing in the SW Caribbean and I'd bet money this will be an EPAC system.

Tell them that i ain't bettin' mulah' but i will bet nothing.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Some of the models seem to be indicating that the system, or at least a chunk of energy from it, could be pulled northeastward into the Caribbean.

In terms of the Pacific system forming, most of the models seem to be on board to some extent (ECMWF, CMC, NAM, GFS, WRF, perhaps some others).

Yep, there is a decent enough disturbance already present to suggest this is a real system that could develop...

As for the first point, well something like that happened with the start of the 2008 season so its quite possible...

GFDL is on board, HWRF a tiny bit....

[Ivanhater]

Model rundown

18z Nam



GFS



Canadian



Euro

[BigA]

18Z GFS is more aggressive in moving the energy across central America and into the Caribbean...shows a 1005 mb tropical storm north of Nicaragua in 120 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps



18z GFS

[cycloneye]

From evening discussion of EPAC by TPC:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2208.shtml?

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N85W THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THE EXTREME
SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY
DISTURBED WEATHER. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WELL
DEFINED LOW AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS SUGGEST A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN COSTA RICA OR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING S TO SW
WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N102W.

[Hurricane Andrew]

ANy thoughts on when it will develop?


(i am like so glad i joined these forums. they are so cool!)

[meteorologyman]

Wierd this is reminding me of 2004 hurricane Season. Alex and Bonnie formed a few a days apart. Alex formed east of FL and moved N then east out to sea. Bonnie formed in the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean into FL. Only difference is That they formed in end of July and early August.

This year what might be Alex is forming again east of FL, and what may be Bonnie Is forming in Eastern Pacific but head up into the Caribbean if forecast models hold.