Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[TheEuropean]

Floater 1 is on it, nice convection flaring up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[wxman57]

Convection beginning to flare up again around the disturbed area

Looks like just another ripple in the ITCZ passing to the south. Way too much shear for anything to get going for at least 3-4 more days, probably longer.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm more worried about how people can call pre flop raises with 10 7 and still make the money, than I am with this "system"

[Ed Mahmoud]

The players can't see the "card cam" showing them the other's players cards. It is called "bluffing".


Back on topic, looking intently on this visible loop between the debris cirrus and the thunderstorms, there isn't a hint of a circulation in the low clouds.

[cycloneye]

931
ABNT20 KNHC 072329
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see any circulation anywhere near the surface, if it sits there a few more days and the shear does indeed lessen it could get interesting, but nothing any time soon but some unorganized convection firing.

[jinftl]

Point taken...but that shouldn't preclude tropical weather enthusiasts from discussing it...or constantly be reminded that this is a pointless endeavor to even embark on...if nothing else, it helps amatuers like me learn about some of the different models and there strengths and flaws or get some analysis on the current atmospheric conditions that could favor or preclude development. In truth, no one has yet to sound the doomsday bell on this system...the tone has been very rational and level-headed.

And until you tell us otherwise, we know....you don't give this a snowball's chance...got it.

I'm more worried about how people can call pre flop raises with 10 7 and still make the money, than I am with this "system"

[boca]

Really high clouds tops off of Nicaragua. Looks like the vorticity will move NE .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

[brunota2003]

If I didnt know any better.........................

[HURAKAN]

If I didnt know any better.........................

I know, it will very likely poof by the morning.

[brunota2003]

Indeed, I am sure it will poof sometime before noon tomorrow...but still looks can be deceiving, aye?

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS is starting to run now. Don't know how good it is, but the 6Z (1 am) rainfall bomb is inland over Nicaragua, not offshore as satellite seems to imply, and through 42 hours it moves 850 mb vorticity around Central America and is only just moving it offshore Nicaragua at 42 hours.


I have no idea what any of this really means, although it appears the GFS is too far West on this run with the convective bomb.

At 54 hours (model is running as I type, 850 mb vort max off Nicaragua is too far North, away from the ridge and in 20 + knot SW flow.






ETA:

I did see a brief -80ºC pixel. Possibly the first of the year in the tropical North Atlantic.

[cpdaman]

yo yo yo dog so check it out.....that's the BOMB of convection (randy jackson AI impression)

been a while since we saw a ball of convection like that........if nothing else shows it's that time of the year now IMO

will be looking for a NEW quikscat monday just in case

[Sanibel]

I have to disagree. This is tropical energy. I'm surprised the experts didn't notice the tropical band like an early season monsoon trough deliniating the wave this burst is within. Yes, this flare will probably poof tomorrow but not for lack of tropical energy but because the center went overland. I would once again stay with this until it dissipates. The key with this one is its containment within the tropical 'wave' that migrated from the June birthing waters north of Panama.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[brunota2003]

Neither, moved inland and probably dissipated by monday p.m. (See Caribbean Thread for reference to that convective blowup)

[dixiebreeze]

Not so sure about that....

[dixiebreeze]

IR Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[brunota2003]

Alright, I'll bite and after finally looking at the loop, it certainly does look nice and has been growing. Considering the wind shear over the area, I still say it becomes nothing other than some arched eyebrows at the height of the cloud tops. But Iono, the clouds are so big and colorful and I just wanna huggle them!

(Yeah, I had an Animaniacs moment)