2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[NDG]

The GEFS and EPS are showing an active sub-tropical jet originating from the EPAC which positions itself right over the GOM and Florida in the wake of Lee and sits there there through rest of the model runs through 384 hours. That looks more like an El Niño look to me and probably why the ensembles are not showing much there. It is certainly possible the GOM and possibly Caribbean shut down early this year because of the El Niño and some of the long-range modeling is hinting at that:

https://i.postimg.cc/zvVzV3fn/eps-shear-epac-fh168-282.gif

The Caribbean still looks favorable through the next 15 days.

[NDG]

Crazy that this season has produced more Major Hurricane days than in 2022, a La Nina year. Definitely the ENSO is not the biggest factor in the equation over the Atlantic Basin.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1701341913989923192

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1701339074395869448

[Steve]

This is probably as close as Andy Hazelton will come in saying "I stand corrected"
I even remember him saying that he would quit Meteorology if the strong El Nino didn't shut down the Atlantic during the peak of the season.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1701284520656318471

He wasn’t one of them.

[Hurricane2022]

Yo soy LOL Niño!!!

[Category5Kaiju]

Yo soy LOL Niño!!!
https://imageshack.com/i/pm5xYv7pg

Some individuals on wx social media were insisting that Franklin and Idalia were just flukes and that things would dramatically become quiet by this month.

Um...

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1701327850031214662

[CyclonicFury]

Moderate-strong El Ninos in the satellite era:

1968: 8-5-0, 45 ACE
1972: 7-3-0, 36 ACE
1982: 6-2-1, 32 ACE
1986: 6-4-0, 36 ACE
1987: 7-3-1, 34 ACE
1991: 8-4-2, 36 ACE
1994: 7-3-0, 32 ACE
1997: 7-3-1, 41 ACE
2002: 12-4-2, 68 ACE
2009: 9-3-2, 55 ACE
2015: 11-4-2, 62 ACE
2023: 14-5-3, 84 ACE (through September 11th)

What we're seeing so far this season is truly unprecedented, as 2023 has already produced more named storms, major hurricanes and ACE than any moderate/strong El Nino FULL SEASON in the satellite era, and is tied with 1968 for the most hurricanes. And there's still 80 days of hurricane season to go. The closest precedent we have is the pre-satellite era season of 1951, which produced 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes with an ACE of ~126.

[Ianswfl]

Looking way way ahead, if the long range climate models are right like the CFS regarding the SST next spring and summer, well if the El Nino fades expect things to really be rocking next season, especially in the Gulf and Carribean. Very similar set up to this summer's sst and if we are in neutral or La Nina

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91106&fh=1

[ChrisH-UK]

Ok with this year I have been a big proponent of this year been a 'Hot Neutral' year in regards of El Nino/La Nina.

I have been looking for research and papers on whether the heat differences between the 2 oceans rather than the winds and pressure play a part in the effects that happen with the El-Nino/La Nina cycle. I haven't been able to find any information in regards to this and I want to look at this further myself. I can easily get historical temperature data for the El Nino regions but finding historical temperature data the Atlantic MDR is proving much harder to get. Getting anomalies is easy but actual temps seems to much harder to get after looking for them the last couple of months.

So any ideas where I can get say monthly averages sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic MDR.

[NDG]

Looking way way ahead, if the long range climate models are right like the CFS regarding the SST next spring and summer, well if the El Nino fades expect things to really be rocking next season, especially in the Gulf and Carribean. Very similar set up to this summer's sst and if we are in neutral or La Nina

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91106&fh=1

I hate to speculate this far out that next year could be a block buster. There are so many factors that play a role like the constant wave breakings we saw last year, strength of the Azores High, SAL outbreaks, African monsoon, heat waves in the mid latitudes, etc.

[jconsor]

You can create your own time series by defining the lat/lon of the MDR.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/oceanwrit/timeseries/ (I recommend selecting ERSST under "Dataset) as it has the longest dataset (1856 to present)

You can also use this site (https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_ ... y_tseries/) for a similar purpose.

Ok with this year I have been a big proponent of this year been a 'Hot Neutral' year in regards of El Nino/La Nina.

I have been looking for research and papers on whether the heat differences between the 2 oceans rather than the winds and pressure play a part in the effects that happen with the El-Nino/La Nina cycle. I haven't been able to find any information in regards to this and I want to look at this further myself. I can easily get historical temperature data for the El Nino regions but finding historical temperature data the Atlantic MDR is proving much harder to get. Getting anomalies is easy but actual temps seems to much harder to get after looking for them the last couple of months.

So any ideas where I can get say monthly averages sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic MDR.

[SFLcane]

Looking way way ahead, if the long range climate models are right like the CFS regarding the SST next spring and summer, well if the El Nino fades expect things to really be rocking next season, especially in the Gulf and Carribean. Very similar set up to this summer's sst and if we are in neutral or La Nina

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91106&fh=1

I hate to speculate this far out that next year could be a block buster. There are so many factors that play a role like the constant wave breakings we saw last year, strength of the Azores High, SAL outbreaks, African monsoon, heat waves in the mid latitudes, etc.

That's the question is a blockbuster year for the fish or the Conus? We shall see

[jconsor]

I think we need to watch the eastern Caribbean in late Sep. Also expecting more NW Caribbean activity than usual in Oct-Nov for an El Nino.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701549729803297243




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701577706637242411




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701583064885874875

[SFLcane]

I think we need to watch the eastern Caribbean in late Sep. Also expecting more NW Caribbean activity than usual in Oct-Nov for an El Nino.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701549729803297243

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701577706637242411

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1701583064885874875

I'm not seeing a disturbance to take advantage yet but its almost CAG time.

[CyclonicFury]

The velocity potential anomaly pattern has continued to look a bit different from your standard Nino look, with the Pacific rising cell displaced west and anomalous sinking over the EPAC.

[WalterWhite]

The velocity potential anomaly pattern has continued to look a bit different from your standard Nino look, with the Pacific rising cell displaced west and anomalous sinking over the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/Fo8ZDqw.gif

That is not exactly the most favorable VP pattern for the North Atlantic, though. That clearly shows sinking air over Africa and the Indian Ocean.

[Chris90]

The velocity potential anomaly pattern has continued to look a bit different from your standard Nino look, with the Pacific rising cell displaced west and anomalous sinking over the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/Fo8ZDqw.gif

That is not exactly the most favorable VP pattern for the North Atlantic, though. That clearly shows sinking air over Africa and the Indian Ocean.

That's a composite from the last 3 months, not a forecast.
Come November, if you do a composite from August-Nov, it'll look different. This composite is a good explanation for one of the major reasons why the EPAC wasn't quite as active back in June and July despite a strengthening Niño.

[SFLcane]

This pattern currently in place concerns me in October in the caribbean in particualr for the the florida peninsula even though there's a subtropical jet across the Gulf.

[USTropics]

The velocity potential anomaly pattern has continued to look a bit different from your standard Nino look, with the Pacific rising cell displaced west and anomalous sinking over the EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/Fo8ZDqw.gif

That is not exactly the most favorable VP pattern for the North Atlantic, though. That clearly shows sinking air over Africa and the Indian Ocean.

Definitely not an El Nino look, nor a hyperactive (160+ ACE season) look either. A seasonal (or trimonthly in this case) observation doesn't exactly show the finer details though, as it gets averaged out over such a long period of time. For instance, take a snapshot of the last 2 weeks, and we have a VP+ configuration that would suggest a hyperactive period (which we've had over the past 2 weeks):