2015 Global model runs discussion

#1501 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:16 am

GFS control run this morning...

AutoPenalti · #1502 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:04 am

SFLcane wrote::hmm: GFS control run this morning...

http://i61.tinypic.com/2jca9g0.png

What the hell is that? :lol:

#1503 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:05 am

spiral wrote::uarrow: That 312 hrs model run never grabbed Ryan Maue's attention all the twitter heavy weights are very quite atm.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue?ref_src=tw ... r%5Eauthor

I still have a non development bias at this point as well considering the numerous model false alarms and the fact that el nino makes for much tougher sledding in the Caribbean for TC development. Nevertheless there is some potential and it has probably grown a touch in the past couple of days (albeit from a low baseline, IMO). Since this is the only race to watch I'm tuned in... BTW IIRC 2009's Ida formed very late (I think November) in an el nino year (granted, not as strong as this one) after many (including me) had written off the season...sooo...we watch.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1504 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:10 am

psyclone wrote:
spiral wrote::uarrow: That 312 hrs model run never grabbed Ryan Maue's attention all the twitter heavy weights are very quite atm.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue?ref_src=tw ... r%5Eauthor

I still have a non development bias at this point as well considering the numerous model false alarms and the fact that el nino makes for much tougher sledding in the Caribbean for TC development. Nevertheless there is some potential and it has probably grown a touch in the past couple of days (albeit from a low baseline, IMO). Since this is the only race to watch I'm tuned in... BTW IIRC 2009's Ida formed very late (I think November) in an el nino year (granted, not as strong as this one) after many (including me) had written off the season...sooo...we watch.

I agree this time of year I always watch the Caribbean

AutoPenalti · #1505 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 10:49 am

12z is running BTW.

#1506 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:31 am

not showing much through 174 hours

HurrMark · #1507 Postby **HurrMark** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:37 am

Alyono wrote:not showing much through 174 hours

There wasn't much thru 186 at 00 Z...let's see the rest of the run...

#1508 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:40 am

looks like there is something over land at 192 hours

TheStormExpert · #1509 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:43 am

Alyono wrote:looks like there is something over land at 192 hours

Yup, with all that high pressure to it's north I'd like to say it buries itself into Central America this run.

HurrMark · #1510 Postby **HurrMark** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:45 am

Some kind of low in the BOC at 216. ..

#1511 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:54 am

no development it appears this run. stuck over Central America.

#1512 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:55 am

CMC also MUCH weaker.

HurrMark · #1513 Postby **HurrMark** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:58 am

Yeah broad low ejected out into the Gulf 11-12 days out but nothing really interesting

#1514 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:16 pm

Canadian still has a moderate TS hitting south florida on the 19th or 20th oct

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#1515 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:16 pm

Canadian is weaker bit still shows a 998MB cyclone into South Florida in the long-range. GFS over more land this run so weaker but still ejects NE at the end with some intensification

#1516 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:19 pm

The predicted formation was expected to take place so close to land it is not surprising what the 12z Gfs just did. 50 miles east or west can make the difference between a weak low pressure stuck over land or a stronger cyclone over the NW Caribbean. The land proximity is just so critical here

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#1517 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:22 pm

GFS ensembles are running...

#1518 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:40 pm

12Z GFS ensembles are bullish and still show this passing south of Florida in the long-range on a NE trajectory:

Weatherwatcher98 · #1519 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:40 pm

Good news... hopefully the reliable models all drop development

TheStormExpert · #1520 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:43 pm

Well the 12z Euro runs shortly, let's see if it changes it's tune as well.