2015 Global model runs discussion

HurricaneEric21 · #1481 Postby **HurricaneEric21** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:45 am

0z GFS also forecasts it to impact Bermuda. Way out obviously but definitely something for them to keep an eye out for as well.

#1482 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:53 am

00z Euro initialized ill only post images if it shows something significant. Here we go...

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1483 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:54 am

First CONUS hit within 10 days? Huh.

Well, the potential of a hurricane landfall in Florida for the first time in 10 years to clarify. We have had a hurricane landfall on CONUS the past 10 years, with Sandy in 2012.

#1484 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:11 am

Some FL climo since 1851: H hit dates 17, 18, 18, 19, 20, 20, 20, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25

All from W. Caribbean geneses. 12 H hits in just 9 day elapsed period is quite possibly if not likely the most concentrated 9 day period of season for FL H hits. 10/20, with four H hits, may have the most FL hits of any day of the season.

Fwiw, note that none of these 12 H hits were during a moderate or stronger El Nino though 3 were during a weak Nino.

#1485 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:36 am

00z Navy Navgem has what appears to be a TS drifting north right at the western tip of Cuba at 180hrs. Yet another model that joins the camp

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1486 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 1:40 am

0Z Euro: looks like genesis at hr 174 a little east of 12Z run. So, initial guess is that TC will be a little E of 12Z run as go further in this run

Edit: it ended up SE of 12Z run hr 228; 240: W tip of Cuba 1000 mb late 10/19 heading NNE to NE to possible S FL hit late 10/20 to 10/21.

#1487 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:08 am

EC has come in a bit more intense with a 999mb pressure

TheStormExpert · #1488 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 2:09 am

00z Euro run ends with a 999mb low over the western tip of Cuba heading NNE/NE.

Euro 192hrs. :darrow:

Euro 216hrs. :darrow:

Euro 240hrs. :darrow:

Weatherwatcher98 · #1489 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 5:33 am

Watching carefully but usually the first place the models show is the last place it will hit. If there is anything there at all.

#1490 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 6:12 am

Climatology and the euro on its side...will see...kids looking for some time off school

Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk

#1491 Postby **crownweather** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:03 am

spiral wrote:two of the four models previously on board with this have dropped off atm on the runs, most notable being the GFS has nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Ummm....no it hasn't!! Both the 00 and 06Z GFS model guidance still insists on western Caribbean tropical development starting next weekend. Euro and Canadian models are also on board with a similar time frame of development.

ronjon · #1492 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:05 am

spiral wrote:two of the four models previously on board with this have dropped off atm on the runs, most notable being the GFS has nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

What do you mean? GFS 0z and 06z both show NW caribbean tropical cyclone that impacts hi florida.

#1493 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:21 am

Model support appears to be growing. The GFS ensembles appear to be just south of Florida on a NE trajectory. It's possible if it develops it passes South Florida to the south. Way too early to say though. Classic October setup and bears close watching here in Southern Florida. October is the month South Florida gets hit by tropical cyclones more than any other month because of hits from the Caribbean like the models are suggesting with this one.

Weatherwatcher98 · #1494 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:27 am

gatorcane wrote:Model support appears to be growing. The GFS ensembles appear to be just south of Florida on a NE trajectory. It's possible if it develops it passes South Florida to the south. Way too early to say though. Classic October setup and bears close watching here in Southern Florida. October is the month South Florida gets hit by tropical cyclones more than any other month because of hits from the Caribbean like the models are suggesting with this one.

Yep same with the Tampa Area

#1495 Postby **crownweather** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:31 am

You're better off looking at the actual model guidance rather than just the phase charts. Levi's site is a good one to look at - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ . For example, 240 hr GFS - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_40.png looks pretty similar to the 240 hr Euro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_11.png .

Weatherwatcher98 · #1496 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 7:39 am

spiral wrote:everyone knows tropical tidbits nothing is wrong with FSU moe cyclone phase i will stick with that data thanks.

I think it's usually pretty good.

#1497 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 8:59 am

Convection is slowly on the increase over Panama and the extreme SW Caribbean.

boca · #1498 Postby **boca** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:00 am

I kmow the models are forecasting a system to develop down in the SW Caribbean,but what is supposed to start the ball rolling?A tropical wave from the East or a Pacific crossover?

#1499 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:08 am

If the 12z run of the models continue showing this I guess NHC will begin to mention it later today or on Sunday.

#1500 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 9:13 am

spiral wrote:http://i.imgsafe.org/577085c.png

Updated graphic shows high humid conditions in Western Caribbean.