2015 Global model runs discussion

#1461 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:35 pm

00z gfs through 180hrs has 2 areas competing one in the NW Caribbean which is weaker and one in the Epac which appears stronger. Land interaction is really gonna have a big affect on the output of the models here. Looks complicated

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Hurricaneman · #1462 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:47 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:00z gfs through 180hrs has 2 areas competing one in the NW Caribbean which is weaker and one in the Epac which appears stronger. Land interaction is really gonna have a big affect on the output of the models here. Looks complicated

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

this run finally has the NW Caribbean low win out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1463 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:50 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:00z gfs through 180hrs has 2 areas competing one in the NW Caribbean which is weaker and one in the Epac which appears stronger. Land interaction is really gonna have a big affect on the output of the models here. Looks complicated

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

this run finally has the NW Caribbean low win out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yup. At 204hrs the NW Caribbean part becomes dominant and getting stronger while drifting north... very much like the Euro showed earlier today

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1464 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:50 pm

gawne wrote:Another look at the 12Z ECMWF at the end of the run with an intensifying storm lifting slowly north out of the NW Caribbean. When was the last time we saw this from the ECMWF?

Well, that run id within 10 days as well now gatorcane. Yeah, being the EURO has now jumped onboard and joined the GFS in this instance, and with it showing a healthy tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Channel within 240 hours, I think now my attention is beginning to get grabbed now. Also, GFS has been persistent going back to the early portions of this week sniffing out this potential, insisting on development. Should it pan out development happens, the GFS would get props for its performance from yours truly.

#1465 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 11:55 pm

240 hrs Gfs has a 999mb storm drifting NE in the yucatan channel almost exactly like the Euro on its 12z run wow

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1466 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:03 am

update: 00z Canadian has a 990 mb hurricane moving N or NNE near the west tip of Cuba going in the general direction of south florida. Model consensus is building. We have the Gfs, Euro and Canadian showing this setup

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1467 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:06 am

CMC brings the pressure down to 979mb before it strikes Cuba

#1468 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:08 am

Alyono wrote:CMC brings the pressure down to 979mb before it strikes Cuba

My apologies. My phone sucks when reading these maps

More model consensus for development. Are u staying up for the Euro tonight?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Hurricaneman · #1469 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:09 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:update: 00z Canadian has a 990 mb hurricane moving N or NNE near the west tip of Cuba going in the general direction of south florida. Model consensus is building. We have the Gfs, Euro and Canadian showing this setup

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

This is starting to get my attention, if this comes any farther north or at a different angle because we all know that big nasty storms have formed there this time of year and this needs to be watched for such a reason

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

HurricaneEric21 · #1470 Postby **HurricaneEric21** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:09 am

GFS has this landfalling in South Fla at 991mb on October 21.

Hurricaneman · #1471 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:11 am

HurricaneEric21 wrote:

GFS has this landfalling in South Fla at 991mb on October 21.

looks similar to the path of Wilma in 2005 lets just hope its nothing like Wilma was

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#1472 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:12 am

I am stuck using my iphone tonight. How can I properly upload images to Storm2k? I would like to help as much as I can

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1473 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:15 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC brings the pressure down to 979mb before it strikes Cuba

My apologies. My phone sucks when reading these maps
More model consensus for development. Are u staying up for the Euro tonight?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

not sure. I'll probably be up.

HurricaneEric21 · #1474 Postby **HurricaneEric21** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:18 am

^ Copy and paste the image link between "[img](insert here)[/img] @WeatherEmperor

I'm a bit concerned that the duration this system might stay over water may end up being long enough to get stronger. Hopefully this isn't another Wilma.

Side note: this would break our FL/cane streak right before the decade mark. Just my luck. :roll:

AutoPenalti · #1475 Postby **AutoPenalti** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:20 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
HurricaneEric21 wrote:

GFS has this landfalling in South Fla at 991mb on October 21.

looks similar to the path of Wilma in 2005 lets just hope its nothing like Wilma was

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

First CONUS hit within 10 days? Huh.

HurricaneEric21 · #1476 Postby **HurricaneEric21** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:24 am

CMC at 240hr. Bit stronger than GFS approaching SFla, also has it approaching from the south.

Edit: also forecasts it to make landfall some time on Oct. 20 as opposed to GFS on Oct. 21.

#1477 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:25 am

0Z CMC hits far S FL late on 10/19 with 987 mb H:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_41.png

Consensus building for FL threat 10/19-21.

Edit: beat again lol.

#1478 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:27 am

Ok guys who is staying up for the Euro tonight? I am very anxious to see what it shows

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

HurricaneEric21 · #1479 Postby **HurricaneEric21** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:29 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Ok guys who is staying up for the Euro tonight? I am very anxious to see what it shows

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I'm a bit of a noob, it's at 2 am ET right?

#1480 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 12:33 am

HurricaneEric21 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:Ok guys who is staying up for the Euro tonight? I am very anxious to see what it shows

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I'm a bit of a noob, it's at 2 am ET right?

Yes thats correct. Ill try to post images but my phone is not the easiest device to deal with lol

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk