Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TheStormExpert]

As for season activity, we need to change the long wave pattern of suppressing the Atlantic by the end of the month, or else this season is going to be even quiet than I was expecting.

Right now, the models are even showing some BOB activity in a few days, which means that it is the eastern Hemisphere that favors upward motion at this time

What exactly needs to change?

[centuryv58]

As for season activity, we need to change the long wave pattern of suppressing the Atlantic by the end of the month, or else this season is going to be even quiet than I was expecting.

Isn't that is what NOAA and other ProMets are predicting--a more ACTIVE season?

[Ntxw]

As for season activity, we need to change the long wave pattern of suppressing the Atlantic by the end of the month, or else this season is going to be even quiet than I was expecting.

Right now, the models are even showing some BOB activity in a few days, which means that it is the eastern Hemisphere that favors upward motion at this time

What exactly needs to change?

Global wave pattern is what he is meaning. Areas of upward motion needs to shift away from the WPac into the WHEM. Right now the globe resembles more of an El Nino like atmosphere with high angular momentum. Either the La Nina needs to get going and change the standing wave pattern. Or something locally in the Atlantic needs to change (better waves and less stability at the same time).

An example that the standing wave pattern getting stuck in the supression phases is 1983. La Nina was unable to take over and upward motion continued in the WPAC as the MJO kept looping there through Nov.

[NDG]

IMO, I'm sure the MJO plays a bigger role but it does not mean that the Atlantic could be very quiet while it is in the western Pacific. Good example is that Hurricane Earl formed while the MJO was on phase 4/5.
Another example is the current system over the northern gulf coast, I am sure it would had developed into a named system had it been over water, though we have "sinking" motion over the western Atlantic basin it has dumped record breaking rainfall.
I am sure the tropical waves over the next few weeks will struggle over the central and eastern Atlantic but they will have to be watched as they approach the western basin where shear has been below average and instability near average to above average, unlike an El Nino year.

[SFLcane]

Think gonna have to unfollow Phil k on Twitter...it's one negative tweet after another about the season. kidding..

[TheStormExpert]

Think gonna have to unfollow Phil k on Twitter...it's one negative tweet after another about the season. kidding..

Same can be said about Michael Ventrice today, posting one negative tweet after another concerning the Atlantic. It's no wonder why many are wanting to write this season off so soon.

[centuryv58]

Think gonna have to unfollow Phil k on Twitter...it's one negative tweet after another about the season. kidding..

Same can be said about Michael Ventrice today, posting one negative tweet after another concerning the Atlantic. It's no wonder why many are wanting to write this season off so soon.

All except NOAA and many other ProMets. Remember, these are two guys on twitter.

[Alyono]

given the overall pattern, it may be until the second week of September before we see another storm. Could be like 1992 in that regard where aside from Andrew, nothing happened until the unnamed Newfoundland storm formed. Looks like we got very lucky with this Gulf disturbance in that it stayed over land. That was the type of system I was expecting before the start of the season to cause big trouble

Wasn't it said 1992 was the best analog for this year?

[Alyono]

For US threats, we may need to look at Hawaii again in a couple of weeks. May get increasing activity in the CPAC toward the end of the month.

I know I bombed horribly with my Ivette call, but I still believe the pattern favors additional Hawaiian landfalls this year (1 already occurred, I need one more for my forecast of multiple to verify)

[Kazmit]

given the overall pattern, it may be until the second week of September before we see another storm. Could be like 1992 in that regard where aside from Andrew, nothing happened until the unnamed Newfoundland storm formed. Looks like we got very lucky with this Gulf disturbance in that it stayed over land. That was the type of system I was expecting before the start of the season to cause big trouble

Wasn't it said 1992 was the best analog for this year?

Second week of September? That's past the peak of the season! If that happens, there will need to be a lot of storms in October and November to keep up with NOAA's predictions...

[gatorcane]

given the overall pattern, it may be until the second week of September before we see another storm. Could be like 1992 in that regard where aside from Andrew, nothing happened until the unnamed Newfoundland storm formed. Looks like we got very lucky with this Gulf disturbance in that it stayed over land. That was the type of system I was expecting before the start of the season to cause big trouble

Wasn't it said 1992 was the best analog for this year?

Yep, 1992 was mentioned by several within this thread back in the Spring as an analog year. I actually used that year as an analog to help come up with my 10/5/2 numbers for this season. I also looked at 1973 as well.

Like the past several years going back to 2013, mid-level dry air continues to be a killer for Atlantic MDR activity and so far this year is no different despite no El Nino.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking more and more like another 2013 season is in the cards. Man forecasters are really going to bust hard if that happens!

[Nimbus]

I didn't want to start a new thread since we have members monitoring severe flood activity.
Do any of the models do anything with the wave currently near -55 W?
I've been watching that area move WNW, its now north of 10 N and visibly sharpening up..
Not sure if it is Pacific bound as has been the norm this season given its recent escape from the ITCZ.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Looking more and more like another 2013 season is in the cards. Man forecasters are really going to bust hard if that happens!

myself and Klotzbach would have been proven to have been accurate

Also, this is NOT a 2013. We're not having a year with 33 ACE. Lets not be ridiculous.

More like a 2014 from here on out. That is a reasonable estimate. There were 6 more storms from this point in the season 2 years ago. That seems like a good estimate

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: Looking more and more like another 2013 season is in the cards. Man forecasters are really going to bust hard if that happens!

myself and Klotzbach would have been proven to have been accurate

Also, this is NOT a 2013. We're not having a year with 33 ACE. Lets not be ridiculous.

More like a 2014 from here on out. That is a reasonable estimate. There were 6 more storms from this point in the season 2 years ago. That seems like a good estimate

So, you disagree with NOAA's prediction then?

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Looking more and more like another 2013 season is in the cards. Man forecasters are really going to bust hard if that happens!

myself and Klotzbach would have been proven to have been accurate

Also, this is NOT a 2013. We're not having a year with 33 ACE. Lets not be ridiculous.

More like a 2014 from here on out. That is a reasonable estimate. There were 6 more storms from this point in the season 2 years ago. That seems like a good estimate

So, you disagree with NOAA's prediction then?

That question was answered in my previous post

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Looking more and more like another 2013 season is in the cards. Man forecasters are really going to bust hard if that happens!

2013's upper level pattern never left spring and we had mid-latitude type shear all the way down into the deep tropics, including the deep-layer system at ~15N that steered Humberto over cooler water, so that's not really comparable with this year.

[tarheelprogrammer]

myself and Klotzbach would have been proven to have been accurate

Also, this is NOT a 2013. We're not having a year with 33 ACE. Lets not be ridiculous.

More like a 2014 from here on out. That is a reasonable estimate. There were 6 more storms from this point in the season 2 years ago. That seems like a good estimate

So, you disagree with NOAA's prediction then?

That question was answered in my previous post

See it now sorry just seen this last one and was wondering.

[Steve]

I think people, world renowned mets on Twitter included, need to keep their proverbial zippers up. This is 2016 which is its own year. There are similarities with other seasons but it's August 13. Usually just a few people push their agendas, but there is no way to know at this point with under 75 years of reliable records. In a western biased season, which at least has panned out so far, you don't look out 2/3 weeks on models because they won't ordinarily show maturing tropical systems since they usually don't see them. Admittedly, now and then many models will key on an area where nothing seems to be headed, and you have a good idea to watch a given area. However this is the exception.

I'm calling the current extreme tropical pattern (just without a named entity) as the Apalachee Bay Low because that's what it was.

Here's a prediction: a bunch of people will be impatient and will continue to hype or bemoan lack of activity. And that's fine except September is 2 1/2 weeks away. Patterns such as they are, have bad implications for North American impacts. Patience = virtue and also gives one the opportunity to look back after it's over and self-critique.

[tolakram]

Keep in mind people are tweeting what they see. Most of the pros don't have a horse in the race, so to speak, and just analyze the data.

My gut wants to trend to a dead season but we'll just have to wait and see.