2015 Global model runs discussion

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LarryWx
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#1421 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:52 pm

The 12Z Euro has a TC in the NW Caribbean on 10/18 moving N. It doesn't go out enough to see the eventual outcome but the 240 hour map suggests to me that IF it were to later cross FL that it would be around the GFS' 10/21.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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2015 Global model runs discussion

#1422 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 09, 2015 1:52 pm

12z Euro at 216hrs has a strenghtening 1006mb low just east of the Yucatan. Its low resolution so I can exact strenght but this is different from before


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2015 Global model runs discussion

#1423 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:04 pm

UPDATE: 12z Euro has a strenghtening TS moving NE right near the tip of Cuba and the Yucatan. The low resolution map shows 1004mb. Very different from before. Now we have the Euro onboard so lets see what future runs show


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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1424 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:04 pm

Dang.12z Euro at 240 hours.

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#1425 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:12 pm

Euro Hr. 192 :darrow:

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Euro Hr. 216 :darrow:

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Euro Hr. 240 :darrow:

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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1426 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:24 pm

:uarrow:

Well now, I guess the plot thickens some :lol: . Take a look at that High pressure too, could be an eastern GOM threat not just FL. Still many days to monitor model trends.
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1427 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:35 pm

yeah pretty strong high pressure, something to watch.....might keep us busy for the next week or so
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1428 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:50 pm

their not thing down their yet
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1429 Postby CourierPR » Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:53 pm

floridasun78 wrote:their not thing down their yet


Check the thread title.
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#1430 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:27 pm

I see the ECMWF has jumped on board. Another case of showing nothing then something in one run. Doesn't really surprise me as it has done this before several times this season.
Development chances appear to be increasing.
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1431 Postby blp » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:33 pm

FIM will win some points if this develops since it has been on it as well for some time.

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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1432 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:38 pm

Euro has been as bad with phantom storms this year as the GFS was last year as far as the 7-10 day mark, I'll wait and see if it's still there within 72 hours before believing it.
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1433 Postby blp » Fri Oct 09, 2015 4:42 pm

Hammy wrote:Euro has been as bad with phantom storms this year as the GFS was last year as far as the 7-10 day mark, I'll wait and see if it's still there within 72 hours before believing it.


I don't blame you. That is a good approach.
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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1434 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:15 pm

Per Miami NWS this evening 10/9. Sounds like a classic october set up.

through eastern US on Wednesday with reinforcing surface front
with deep and somewhat moist easterly flow setting up for the
latter half of the week as high pressure sprawls to our north and
pressures lower over the northwest Caribbean.
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2015 Global model runs discussion

#1435 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:26 pm

18z Gfs is almost identical to its 12z version through 156hrs. Low pressure consolidating in the NW Caribbean


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Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

#1436 Postby WPBWeather » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:28 pm

blp wrote:FIM will win some points if this develops since it has been on it as well for some time.

Image


The FIM was supposed to be the great new model several years ago, but it always seems to want to develop nothing or Cat 5 looking storms...
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#1437 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:39 pm

18Z GFS looks to be sending this into the BOC with development.
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2015 Global model runs discussion

#1438 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS looks to be sending this into the BOC with development.


Very similar to what the Canadian showed on its 12z run earlier today with the BOC


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#1439 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 09, 2015 5:59 pm

:uarrow: It turns NE at the end though and intensifies it.

The GFS is bringing in the timeframe here. With the ECMWF on board, development chances continue to increase. Track details and strength cannot be predicted this early out. Climatology favors a NE or N track out of the NW Caribbean.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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2015 Global model runs discussion

#1440 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:00 pm

@gator yeah you beat me too it looks like it does ENE towards Florida


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