2015 Global model runs discussion

[WeatherEmperor]

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

This may be true in other basins around the world, but in the Atlantic it has been below average with spawning genesis. In some cases it has been terrible so I cannot agree with this.


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[gatorcane]

GFS has been bringing in the timeframe. Looks like development commences in about one week now.

Gator, can you post the link?

144 hours below:

[LarryWx]

06Z GFS is much stronger with the NW Caribbean System

Also, note the NE track after genesis. Per history, a N/NNE/NE track has occurred in that area in mid-Oct much more often than a mainly W/WNW/NW track into MX/C. America. So, if genesis were to occur (still highly questionable, especially with very little Euro support at most), the 0Z/6Z tracks would be quite believable.

[gatorcane]

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

Will disagree on this. Three that come to mind immediately are

Micro major hurricane Danny - ECMWF had nothing but a wave or weak area of low pressure even in the medium-range (like 5 days out). Then within one run, suddenly it showed a cyclone out of nowhere

Major hurricane Joaquin - Euro had zip even in the medium-range guidance then suddenly within one run it showed a hurricane heading WSW into the Bahamas. Granted, all of the models missed this one.

Invest 99L that formed near the Yucatan - GFS was showing this low in the long-range. The Euro showed nothing until it got into the medium range guidance and then starting showing a low

That said, I can see it showing something out of nowhere in one run as we have seen it do this season with several Atlantic cyclones.

Of course it is possible the GFS continues to bring in timeframe and then suddenly drops the system out of nowhere too as we have seen it do in the past when there is no model support.

[LarryWx]

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

Will disagree on this. Three that come to mind immediately are

Micro major hurricane Danny - ECMWF had nothing but a wave or weak area of low pressure even in the medium-range (like 5 days out). Then within one run, suddenly it showed a cyclone out of nowhere

Major hurricane Joaquin - Euro had zip even in the medium-range guidance then suddenly within one run it showed a hurricane heading WSW into the Bahamas. Granted, all of the models missed this one.

Invest 99L that formed near the Yucatan - GFS was showing this low in the long-range. The Euro showed nothing until it got into the medium range guidance and then starting showing a low

Gator,
Good post. I agree that the Euro sometimes misses genesis. However, as we know, the GFS has the opposite problem of false geneses, including the debacle of one year ago when the Euro instead concentrated on E Pacific genesis and ended up right about no W Caribbean genesis then. So, I assume you'd agree that the best indicator by far of likely genesis there would be having W Caribbean genesis on both models at about the same time as opposed to only one of them or neither of them.

[Alyono]

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

I think Pro Met Alyono would disagree with that statement

I think the models have been below average this year. I don't think you can use "almost never misses" with any model this year.

EC has actually overdeveloped things this year even in genesis cases. The changes made it go from a model that missed everything to one that now has CMC tendencies

[LarryWx]

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

I think Pro Met Alyono would disagree with that statement

I think the models have been below average this year. I don't think you can use "almost never misses" with any model this year.

EC has actually overdeveloped things this year even in genesis cases. The changes made it go from a model that missed everything to one that now has CMC tendencies

The worst case for the EC this year imo was that far W Gulf Invest that it several times on its own suddenly blew up into a strong H even though it never even made it to named storm status. I still have 2010 records that show that the EC started sometimes overdeveloping (once it has genesis) into very strong hurricanes in 2010. The worst case still to this date IMO was the strengthening of 2010's Fiona to mid 920's mb or stronger on about half a dozen runs. One run was down to 909 mb!! It ended up only as a 998ish TS!

Fiona: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[CourierPR]

As model validity debates continue, what will be the catalyst for development of a possible system? I heard on local Miami weather that a weak front will move into our area this weekend. Will this help moisten things in the Caribbean?

[PTrackerLA]

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

Will disagree on this. Three that come to mind immediately are

Micro major hurricane Danny - ECMWF had nothing but a wave or weak area of low pressure even in the medium-range (like 5 days out). Then within one run, suddenly it showed a cyclone out of nowhere

Major hurricane Joaquin - Euro had zip even in the medium-range guidance then suddenly within one run it showed a hurricane heading WSW into the Bahamas. Granted, all of the models missed this one.

Invest 99L that formed near the Yucatan - GFS was showing this low in the long-range. The Euro showed nothing until it got into the medium range guidance and then starting showing a low

That said, I can see it showing something out of nowhere in one run as we have seen it do this season with several Atlantic cyclones.

Of course it is possible the GFS continues to bring in timeframe and then suddenly drops the system out of nowhere too as we have seen it do in the past when there is no model support.

Or just go back to page 43 on this thread. Just one month ago, the Euro was coming out with several runs that were forming a hurricane and even an intense hurricane landfalling in Louisiana. GFS showed nothing. I wouldn't say the Euro has been great with genesis this year, AT ALL.

Edit: LarryWx beat me to it

[NDG]

Yes, the ECMWF has not been perfect at times, it has been very inconsistent this year, many times over strengthening systems. The reason why I keep saying that the NHC and other Pro-Mets ignored the Euro with Joaquin when it was forecasting it to become a MH and track towards the central Bahamas.
We just have to wait and see as time gets closer which model between the GFS and Euro is correct, look for the signals to determine which solution could come to fruition.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS now has a 1004 low that crosses the Yucatan and into the GOM at 240 hrs. Looks like it gets sheared out and spread across south Florida by hour 288.

[LarryWx]

Subsequently, the 12Z GFS takes that low ENEward across far S FL at 1003 mb early on 10/21.

I think the important thing is to see that the GFS has been harping on 10/21 as the potential crucial day for FL/Bahamas IF there actually is to be a genesis and IF it moves in the general direction of FL/Bahamas (which is common in mid-Oct. in that area). So, it isn't slipping.

I still like to emphasize "IF" especially because of the GFS debacle of one year ago in the same area. This debacle involved much closer forecast periods to boot. And the GFS wasn't slipping making it more believable. So, there's still a very long way to go!

Edit: Ptracker beat me to mentioning the FL hit on 10/21.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Development becoming more unlikely though not impossible. Could this be the beginning of the end of the Season?


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yes it could. seasons often shut down early during a strong el nino. Florida folks are likely to see plenty of weather excitement but it will likely be from the amped subtropical jet later this winter rather than late season tropical action. Nevertheless we watch..but the odds are against development.

I agree 97-98 winter was very Bad

[rickybobby]

What is the shear forecast suppose to look like for next week? Thanks.

[LarryWx]

Note that IF this were to become a TS in the W. Caribbean and IF FL were to later get hit by it as a TC, it would likely be a H based on history:

FL hits from Caribbean geneses 80W or further west in mid Oct.:
- 1 cat 4
- 2 cat 3
- 2 cat 2
- 4 cat 1
- 1 TS

Edit: However, with this being a very strong El Nino, the odds of that are very likely not as high as these stats suggest. None of these 10 FL hits were during a moderate or stronger Nino and only one (cat 1 Gladys of 1968) was during a weak one.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Canadian does show a little development...on the Epac side. It basically rides it along the coast on the Epac side where it crosses into the BOC before getting pushed south again near 200-240 hours or so.

I think development is possible here however the exact location of genesis will be critical here. One little miscalculation in the models where the potential center forms could have implications on their output and also on the systems ability to survive. If models keep it further into the Caribbean we could see stronger growth but one little change in the atmosphere could make its life difficult from the land. Difficult to say at this point.


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[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro is running right now. Lets see what it says


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[wxman57]

What is the shear forecast suppose to look like for next week? Thanks.

About 50kts (high) across the central Gulf to South Florida on the 20th. Less across the far southern Gulf & NW Caribbean. Not unfavorable at all down there. For now, this may be just a GFS phantom storm. I'll start believing when it's within 7 days AND the Euro is developing something, too. Could be the development will switch to the East Pacific in future runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro is sending a weak low into central america and appears to die off at 120 hours. Lets see what the rest of the run shows.


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[Alyono]

CMC shows development in the BOC. Gets forced southward on a Stan track