INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[WmE]

So is it TD3?

No it isn't.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is SAL figured for in SHIPS? Because SHIPS has a strong T.S. in 72 hours.

SHIPS forecasts every Invest to become a strong TS.

Not true- one of the things I have noticed that a good sign that something won't develop is an invest initialized as a 25 knot depression that is a 35 knot T.S. in 72 hours. I don't know if SHIPS looks at SAL or not, but it does seem to me, as an uneducated but interested amateur, to have some utility.

[Cyclone1]

So is it TD3?

No it isn't.

Ok, just wondering because the thing on the prev. page said "tropical depression invest 99L".

[ronjon]

Boy, GFDL really blows it up..985 mb..I know that's not at the surface but looks stronger than SHIPS - further north than the BAMs by about 2 deg

[windstorm99]

Boy, GFDL really blows it up..985 mb..I know that's not at the surface but looks stronger than SHIPS - further north than the BAMs by about 2 deg

Yep...Brings it to a hurricane.

[gatorcane]

long range GFS models show a couple of days of ridging before the east coast trough redevelops early next week

that would mean watch out SE coast of US including Florida...

[wxman57]

Note to everyone: While I do think that there is some potential for this disturbance to develop over the coming week, unless convection persists another 24-48 hours that chance of development is not going to be high. I'd estimate maybe a 20% shot right now. That's an 80% chance nothing comes of it. We see many such disturbances in the tropical Atlantic each season, and most do not develop. So just keep an eye on it for now. The NHC will almost certainly do nothing with it until if and when recon investigates on Wednesday afternoon.

[windstorm99]

Not much on the 2:05.

[dwg71]

I think the next 24 hours will tell us if we have a player. Right now, I give 10-20% of development. Dry air and shear will be factors to deal with.

[Berwick Bay]

While I would love to dust off my Berwick Model (been two years) there's just not enough yet to go on with this system. We at least need some intialization and there is still some uncertainty about the ridge to the north going out seven days or so. So I wait. But I will throw this possibility out, how about upgrade to depression on Aug 1st. Some others predicted that date several weeks ago. This season looks to be coming into focus right on schedule. Our first legit trop storm was on June 1st (and please don't argue with the NHC designation of trop storm for Barry--okay argue if you must, but I believe it was legit), and now perhaps our "heart of the season" depression on Aug 1st.

[Weatherfreak14]

It is very early to tell where anything like this can go. Everyone on the Venezuela to New England should be watching this closely, though it hasent developed yet i give it a 40% of developing, maybe 10% of that is on hope. but this really seem to have the potiental and as Wxman57 has said, "persistance is key".

[Blown Away]

Boy, GFDL really blows it up..985 mb..I know that's not at the surface but looks stronger than SHIPS - further north than the BAMs by about 2 deg

Can you provide the link. TY

[skysummit]

Boy, GFDL really blows it up..985 mb..I know that's not at the surface but looks stronger than SHIPS - further north than the BAMs by about 2 deg

Can you provide the link. TY

Look back in the thread....an image was posted.

[PTrackerLA]

I think 40% is a good probability of development for this system as of right now. We'll see over the next 24 hours if it can fight off that dry air which is my biggest concern regarding development right now. If it's still around tomorrow and continuing to improve in appearance I'd think we'll have Chantal by Wednesday/Thursday. If this sytem sets up with a W-WNW track through the caribbean in a few days I will begin to become very concerned about possible gulf coast impacts. We shall see.

[RL3AO]

Everyone from Venezuela to New England should be watching this closely

Fixed your post

[Weatherfreak14]

Everyone from Venezuela to New England should be watching this closely

Fixed your post

Ok, thats alot better and i pretty much ment to say that.!!!

[HouTXmetro]

Does anyone remember Tropical Storm Earl a few years back.. He was in the same area and looked to be a GOM threat. BUT WENT........*POOF

[Derek Ortt]

This wave/developing weak low may have a similar evolution to Chantal... the 2001 version that is

[dixiebreeze]

Dvorak:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
30/1745 UTC 9.8N 48.7W TOO WEAK 99L

TAFB says 1011 low in 48 hrs E. of the islands.

[ronjon]

Boy, GFDL really blows it up..985 mb..I know that's not at the surface but looks stronger than SHIPS - further north than the BAMs by about 2 deg

Can you provide the link. TY

Upon your request.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007073012-invest99l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation