TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #5

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conestogo_flood
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#141 Postby conestogo_flood » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:50 pm

The Weather Network said anywhere from Maine to Newfoundland are at risk of a possible landfall. Now, I don't know if that sounds correct, but I saw a model that shows a large hurricane over St. Johns, Newfoundland... is that correct?
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Hurricaneman
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#142 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:50 pm

How might 92l effect Florence
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#143 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:51 pm

fci wrote:Wow, 5 PM has TS winds out to 260 miles!
BIG storm, glas it will miss the coast by more than 260 miles.
It will get larger than that.
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#144 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:
bzukajo wrote:So it is a FISH then


Not a fish as Bermuda,Maine,Nova Scotia,New Foundland may be close or direct to the path.Being the system so large even if it passes well east of New England,that area may get pretty strong winds.


On Bermuda... didn't they get hit in '03 by a storm named Fabian?
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#145 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:51 pm

Fish or not I love watching them grow. Looks to get organize pretty well

Image
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#146 Postby superfly » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:52 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:The Weather Network said anywhere from Maine to Newfoundland are at risk of a possible landfall. Now, I don't know if that sounds correct, but I saw a model that shows a large hurricane over St. Johns, Newfoundland... is that correct?


Image
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#147 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:53 pm

WRF has it going more west now:

Image
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#148 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:54 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
bzukajo wrote:So it is a FISH then


Not a fish as Bermuda,Maine,Nova Scotia,New Foundland may be close or direct to the path.Being the system so large even if it passes well east of New England,that area may get pretty strong winds.


On Bermuda... didn't they get hit in '03 by a storm named Fabian?


Image

LAwxrgal,here is Fabian in 2003 that passed almost on top of Bermuda.
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#149 Postby conestogo_flood » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:54 pm

So, the model has shifted the cane west to Halifax County near the centre of the storm. Cause for concern for Atlantic Canada...
Last edited by conestogo_flood on Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#150 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:54 pm

ummm that is alot more west...I hope that is WAY wrong :eek:
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#151 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:56 pm

Trugunzn wrote:WRF has it going more west now:

Image


Is Florence the one with the 982mb? If so, how reliable is this model?
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#152 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:59 pm

Damar91 wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:WRF has it going more west now:



Is Florence the one with the 982mb? If so, how reliable is this model?


That model run is almost 48 hours old.... I wish it would update already! :(
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#153 Postby LAwxrgal » Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Image

LAwxrgal,here is Fabian in 2003 that passed almost on top of Bermuda.


Thought it was close. Looks like a similar path is forecast for Florence. Interesting analog.
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#154 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:00 pm

comments on the WRF? It doesn't recurve it.
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#155 Postby Damar91 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:01 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
Damar91 wrote:
Trugunzn wrote:WRF has it going more west now:



Is Florence the one with the 982mb? If so, how reliable is this model?


That model run is almost 48 hours old.... I wish it would update already! :(


Didn't notice that Windsurfer, good eye!
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#156 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:07 pm

THE MAJOR CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY IS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER
THE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
WESTWARD...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON DEVELOPING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORENCE IN THREE DAYS OR SO
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE IN MAKING FLORENCE A MAJOR HURRICANE. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
FLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.
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#157 Postby Trugunzn » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:19 pm

NGM made a westward jump:

0z:
Image

12z:
Image[/img]
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Hurricaneman
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#158 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:22 pm

My thinking right now is that 92l might delay the trough just enough to make Florence go more west than originally thought, which is making me uneasy
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#159 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:26 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:My thinking right now is that 92l might delay the trough just enough to make Florence go more west than originally thought, which is making me uneasy


92L is so tiny compared to the trof that it will have no effect at all. The trof will shoot 92L off to the northeast along the front as a frontal low. There are still no indications that Florence will threaten the east U.S. Coast. I'd be concerned if I was in Bermuda, however.
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#160 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:28 pm

I doubt Flo will get any closer to the US coast than to create big waves.Just my opinion
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