Invest 91L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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cycloneye
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#141 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:39 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060808 0000 060808 1200 060809 0000 060809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 43.6W 13.4N 46.4W 14.5N 49.2W 15.2N 51.9W
BAMM 12.2N 43.6W 13.0N 46.5W 13.9N 49.3W 14.4N 52.3W
A98E 12.2N 43.6W 12.7N 46.4W 13.4N 49.2W 14.1N 51.9W
LBAR 12.2N 43.6W 13.2N 46.6W 14.4N 49.3W 14.9N 52.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060810 0000 060811 0000 060812 0000 060813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 54.5W 17.6N 58.4W 19.3N 60.7W 20.3N 62.4W
BAMM 14.8N 55.3W 16.1N 60.6W 17.8N 64.6W 18.6N 67.8W
A98E 14.6N 54.5W 16.5N 59.0W 18.3N 63.2W 20.3N 66.7W
LBAR 15.1N 54.8W 15.7N 60.0W 16.9N 63.8W 16.7N 64.2W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 57KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 43.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 40.8W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 37.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Image
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Bailey1777
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#142 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:45 pm

Is there a weakness forecast in that area, or if you could go out further would there be a shift back to the West?(I know thats way out just wondering)
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#143 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:49 pm

The BAMM tracks over my head but I know that changes with every run.
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#144 Postby destro34 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:51 pm

what is going on with gfdl? jesus!! it is loco.....
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#145 Postby ThunderMate » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:53 pm

If those tracks hold out it could spell trouble for the East Coast with the GFDL being the outlier here.
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#146 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:54 pm

destro34 wrote:what is going on with gfdl? jesus!! it is loco.....


Esta loco esa trajectoria verdad?

It's a crazy track right?

No se porque este modelo GFDL hace eso.

I can't figure out why GFDL tracks that way.
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#147 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
destro34 wrote:what is going on with gfdl? jesus!! it is loco.....


Esta loco esa trajectoria verdad?

It's a crazy track right?

No se porque este modelo GFDL hace eso.

I can't figure out why GFDL tracks that way.


A veces yo pienso que mi amiga está loca.
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#148 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:56 pm

ThunderMate wrote:If those tracks hold out it could spell trouble for the East Coast with the GFDL being the outlier here.


Lets wait for it to get convection over its center before we start saying it could hit the EC.
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#149 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:57 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but the GFDL kills it off doesn't it?
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#150 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 07, 2006 7:59 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but the GFDL kills it off doesn't it?


In the 18z GFDL kills it at 78 hours,more hours than the 12z which was at 30 hours.
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#151 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Bailey1777 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but the GFDL kills it off doesn't it?


In the 18z GFDL kills it at 78 hours,more hours than the 12z which was at 30 hours.


Late Cycle model guidance if it wasn't posted.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

12Z
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#152 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:06 pm

Is the center under that new blow up of convection, or West of it?
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#153 Postby skysummit » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:12 pm

Image
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#154 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:21 pm

skysummit wrote:Image
My guess is that this will follow the gray (XTRP) line and move toward the Yucatan.
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#155 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:23 pm

Yeah I don't know why we didn't think of the SST'S.
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#156 Postby calculatedrisk » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:25 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Yeah I don't know why we didn't think of the SST'S.


Yeah, currently 91L is over 26 to 27 degree water.

Image

It will be moving over warmer water tonight and tomorrow.
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#157 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:30 pm

calculatedrisk wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Yeah I don't know why we didn't think of the SST'S.


Yeah, currently 91L is over 26 to 27 degree water.

Image

It will be moving over warmer water tonight and tomorrow.
91L isn't that far north though, but yes it looks like 26-27 degree water regardless.
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#158 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:31 pm

Buoy 41041

Wind-ENE
Wind Speed-17.5
Gust-23.3
Pressure-29.93
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#159 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
skysummit wrote:http://img128.imageshack.us/img128/8599/tropicalmodels1yd3.jpg
My guess is that this will follow the gray (XTRP) line and move toward the Yucatan.


I was just going to post such a model plot to demonstrate that you cannot trust the BAM models when the steering currents are changing ahead of a disturbance. All the dynamic models that account for such changes in the steering flow take the disturbance more westward as high pressure builds north of 99L.

I think the XTRAP (extrapolated track) may not be too bad here, maybe it's too far north, though. GFS, at least, indicates a very strong ridge north of the Caribbean later this week that may drive anything in there due west toward the southern Yucatan. And the high builds west with time.

Might as well post my image:
Image
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#160 Postby calculatedrisk » Mon Aug 07, 2006 8:34 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:91L isn't that far north though, but yes it looks like 26-27 degree water regardless.


Yes, I drew the circle a little too far north (its closer to 12N instead of 15N), but the temps are the same.
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