Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[jrod]

It looks a little better but still ugly. Depression no, if its trend of slowly looking better continues then we will have something by tommorow. Besides the winds at the Carribean aren't impressive but the pressure is falling.

[gatorcane]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Yea, This thing is a TD now Airforce..Ive seen Much worse classified...

if anything it is on its way to becoming a tropical storm within 24 to 48 hours...that is what I think and it still we be sitting about where it is now.

[jaxfladude]

Whatever happens will happen.................

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Whatever happens will happen.................

Thanks for the Tip..LOL

[CHRISTY]

my opinion is the GFS has been forcasting a trough to drop down in a few days into the gulf of mexico and how far north 90L is at the time will determine were it begins to make the NE turn.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

[Tampa_God]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Yea, This thing is a TD now Airforce..Ive seen Much worse classified...

Didn't they call a system in the South Carribean last year a TD and the whole thing was a mess when they did call it a TD. It didn't have a good center and there was no rainbands around it.

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

The NHC took the Low off their GOES fonts. I think they plan to move it.

[boca]

true Christy

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at the satellite loops, it appears to me that the center of the low is beween the Cayman Islands and Belize. I don't think the area of convection towars the Cayman Islands is the center of the low. My thinking is that if a TD forms it will track to the north then NE. The west coast of Florida should pay particular attention to this system.....MGC

You are correct MGC, the low is still visible well WSW of the Caymans and appears to be still drifting very slowly northward. It is pretty much near 18N 86w or slightly more north of that position. Everyone bit on the mid and upper level circ. that got sheared off toward the NE from earlier convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

[Stormcenter]

After the last two hurricane seasons,especially 2005 I wouldnt rule out anything happening with this system. It looks like a good bet already that it will become Alberto and make land on the US coast,although I still have a hard time imagining Alberto as a cane

My sentiments exactly. I still never forget all of those who were so sure Katrina was headed toward Florida again after entering the GOM. Anyway, I also have a hard time believing it will make it to hurricane strength.

[CHRISTY]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

The NHC took the Low off their GOES fonts. I think they plan to move it.

boca check out this visible loop to me the center is trying to form under those thunderstorms.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Ivanhater]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

nope. your right

[gatorcane]

so where is the center??? I'm confused

[george_r_1961]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Yea, This thing is a TD now Airforce..Ive seen Much worse classified...[/quote]

It hasnt been classified as a TD yet and until it is we shouldnt be calling it one. Im not trying to be rude but even though the sattelite presentation is good, its whats going on at the surface that counts. When we see winds at the TD threshold and a defined LLC with convection around it then we will have a TD. That could very well happen tonite but as of now its merely a low pressure area.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg
^^Satellite image^^

I still see the center well west of the caymans.

I agree there is a circulation there but, is it mid level? Is there a low level circulation under there?

when you look closely you can make out a low-level cloud swirl. (unless I am seeing things)

nope. your right

that Cir won't survive...

[gatorcane]

I don't know about you all but just looking at the satellite presentation this evening it certainly looks like it should be a depression already. I have seen some depressions look worse than this thing. Its looking very tropical on the sat pics with outflow starting to happen.

It would be nice to know what the pressures are out there. Certainly in the 1005 mb range.

For the record...I think this thing will get going somewhere around 82W and around 20N...give or take 60 miles....once it finally gets going. Probably tomorrow when recon gets there.

Yea, This thing is a TD now Airforce..Ive seen Much worse classified...[/quote]

It hasnt been classified as a TD yet and until it is we shouldnt be calling it one. Im not trying to be rude but even though the sattelite presentation is good, its whats going on at the surface that counts. When we see winds at the TD threshold and a defined LLC with convection around it then we will have a TD. That could very well happen tonite but as of now its merely a low pressure area.

[Noles2006]

That's what I've been watching all day (18N, 85-86 W) and it looks like thunderstorms are starting to pop around that circulation.