Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[ROCK]

Thanks EWG. Always interesting to see what JB has to say. I do appreciate your updates although some here feel the need to question it......

[Starburst]

Basically, this is what JB said tonight (very summarized due to lack of time):

-The system near the Bahamas should have all elements come together for development as it crosses FL and ends up in the Gulf.

-models have showed a westward trend in where this will go once in the Gulf. Latest models have showed a trend from a Jacksonville hit to a MS hit (this implies to me that it looks like an eventual central or west Gulf issue).

-There is no telling whether or not this will actually develop into something tropical, but all the players will be there for it to do so.

He also mentioned the wave in the Atlantic and said the only way it will develop is if it can maintain itself as it moves west.

**He will have more details tomorrow.**

Bolded area = My opinion based on his post.

He was in a hurry let me try to summarize a bit further. You have got to understand summarizing with JB is not easy with his on point off point style.

Now the problem JB has with the bahamas system is the overall pattern in general. The gulf will have a trof splitting from the west southwest, and then we have the front that was off the east coast is now pulling up north. This will leave a hole for the system to go through if there is a bonafide system there. There is a strong southeast wind from 3 to 5000 feet that is piling air up above the system but not in an organized way at the present time. We also have a tutt over the central atlantic moving west to southwest which is aiding in further help with the sinking air that is needed for the building of the Bermuda high to it's west. JB says he is frustrated because the set up is developing but unless there is a storm it is a moot point so to speak but with convection firing and a building high pressure and a light gradient in the GOM and a low level jet from the southeast it could maybe possibly fire up a connected low level system if a low level system would try and develop. He goes on to state that the warm water is present and also the loop current. He also states that the
the NAM/WRF models are continuing the trend further west with the system that is in the Bahamas. Yesterday the models were just east of JAX and today they are taking them just south of MS. JB goes on to state that these are only feedback models and going only by these models is like taking a long walk off a short pier and that is a direct quote.

The atlantic wave he does not go much into except for the fact that it is going to have to sustain itself at the present time and going up and down (pulsing) is not going to do it.


There are no opinions of mine in this summary this is only a summary of the discussion.

[ROCK]

thus the science of a westernly trend......thanks SB

[Starburst]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

[Stormcenter]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

Thanks for the posts.

[teal61]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

That's not exactly what was said about the system in the Bahamas. To summarize.... The upper level conditions are becoming more favorable but as of now the system has not taken advantage of them.

[Stormcenter]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

That's not exactly what was said about the system in the Bahamas. To summarize.... The upper level conditions are becoming more favorable but as of now the system has not taken advantage of them.

Well that is interesting. Thanks.

[Starburst]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

That's not exactly what was said about the system in the Bahamas. To summarize.... The upper level conditions are becoming more favorable but as of now the system has not taken advantage of them.

direct quote from a portion of JB's summary:

Atlantic more active. Bursting pattern with wave southeast of Florida system should be in gulf tomorrow but still no established hook between increasingly favorable upper level and what we are seeing now.

ummm that is not how I read it did you read todays summary? Maybe I am reading it wrong as he does use so many catch phrases, but I do not think so as we all know even the gulf is very unfavorable for any development right now. Maybe someone else can chime in on this

[teal61]

JB's Wednesday morning outlook.....

System near Florida should be in the GOM by tomorrow but still not favorable for development. Atlantic system trying to obtain thunderstorms over the center now near 12.5 and 55.0. ICTZ is becoming more active.

That is it folks that is all he wrote this early A.M. he will post more at noon and in the P.M. myself of Extreme will update as updates are available.

That's not exactly what was said about the system in the Bahamas. To summarize.... The upper level conditions are becoming more favorable but as of now the system has not taken advantage of them.

direct quote from a portion of JB's summary:

Atlantic more active. Bursting pattern with wave southeast of Florida system should be in gulf tomorrow but still no established hook between increasingly favorable upper level and what we are seeing now.

ummm that is not how I read it did you read todays summary? Maybe I am reading it wrong as he does use so many catch phrases, but I do not think so as we all know even the gulf is very unfavorable for any development right now. Maybe someone else can chime in on this

Well I didn't want to post exactly what he said but since you did, what exactly is your definition of " increasingly favorable upper level" ? If I read that to me it says that upper level conditions are becoming more favorable for development. I've been a subscriber for a long time and thats what it says to me, I have been known to be wrong though.

By the way, with the upper low in the SC Gulf backing away to the west in JB's eyes this would be favorable for development as it would ventilate the system over the Bahamas not shear it. Part of the trough split he gets so excited about all the time. Its all about the position of the disturbance in relation to the upper low.

[Starburst]

See to me when he says no established hook between increasingly favorable upper level and what we are seeing now. I took it to mean when he says still no established hook between increasingly favorable upper level that he was saying it is not coming together, not working well together, not hooked to be able to work together, still unfavorable as we are seeing now with the system near Florida.

Anyway between the both of us I think they got the info they needed out of it, as we both know JB's summaries are not easy to summarize somedays.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I havn't finished reading his whole post yet, but in his first few paragraphs JB said that he thinks we'll see 2 systems by the end of the month! He said the Gulf is the area to watch the next 10 days followed by the Caribbean and Atlantic beyond the 24th.

[rainstorm]

yikes

[bigmike]

yikes

why? Nothing has happened.

[ROCK]

I havn't finished reading his whole post yet, but in his first few paragraphs JB said that he thinks we'll see 2 systems by the end of the month! He said the Gulf is the area to watch the next 10 days followed by the Caribbean and Atlantic beyond the 24th.

Not sure what he is seeing that far out to warrant the GOM an issue. 96L or whats left of it doesnt look that hot right now. SST's are good to go but all theses TUTT and shear seems to be capping the activity for now. We shall see. We have only two weeks before the end of the month. Things better get hopping soon.

[Pearl River]

We have only two weeks before the end of the season.

UH....Month maybe?

[SouthFloridawx]

We have only two weeks before the end of the season.

UH....Month maybe?

Try 2 months till peak season.

[Pearl River]

Pearl River wrote:
Quote:
We have only two weeks before the end of the season.


UH....Month maybe?


Try 2 months till peak season.

Let me re-phrase that. 2 weeks till the end of the month.

[Johnny]

Any comments from JB this morning? I'd like to see what he has to say, especially since I am going on vacation all of next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

No post yet today.

[gatorcane]

No post yet today.

There is honestly nothing to post - the tropics are more quite than even in the winter -

it's a dead out there right now and nothing looks to be forming anytime soon