Potential development over the Western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 99L)

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS Nuclear again in the WC.

[SFLcane]

Incoming Cat 4 heading for the NW carib on the 12z GFS..

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the west coast of FL is going to get blasted again on this GFS run.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the west coast of FL is going to get blasted again on this GFS run.

Wilma 2.0

[chris_fit]

946 MB

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like the west coast of FL is going to get blasted again on this GFS run.

Wilma 2.0

Minus the stop in Cancun

[chris_fit]

12z CMC weak and further W

[SouthFLTropics]

Amazing but scary run to run consistency on the GFS at 8 days.

[chris_fit]

FL Peninsula about to get slammed again according to 12z GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

And at 200 hours the GFS rolls right over my house... I'm liking the ICON and the CMC solutions much better. GFS...you are not my friend!!!

[chaser1]

Key difference between the GFS & ICON this a.m. being the speed by which each model deepens the disturbance. The 6Z GFS had reached sub <1000 mb at 66 hours, and the 12Z now continues to bring that time line closer now at 54 hrs. The biggest distinction however is the speed which GFS deepens this storm to sub 960 mb by around 96 hr's. My guess is that a more vertically stacked storm is less apt to be steered by the westward low level flow that ICON depicts the more shallow system to ultimately track. My thinking here leans more toward the near to mid term GFS solution simply given its better skill at forecasting intensity. All the more interesting it will be to see what the regional Hurricane models depict (once this becomes an invest this afternoon/evening).

[SFLcane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Man that GFS simulated satellite looks just like Wilma... All the way down to the large eye.

[Travorum]

happy mid-october mid-november everybody!

[aspen]

Key difference between the GFS & ICON this a.m. being the speed by which each model deepens the disturbance. The 6Z GFS had reached sub <1000 mb at 66 hours, and the 12Z now continues to bring that time line closer now at 54 hrs. The biggest distinction however is the speed which GFS deepens this storm to sub 960 mb by around 96 hr's. My guess is that a more vertically stacked storm is less apt to be steered by the westward low level flow that ICON depicts the more shallow system to ultimately track. My thinking here leans more toward the near to mid term GFS solution simply given its better skill at forecasting intensity. All the more interesting it will be to see what the regional Hurricane models depict (once this becomes an invest this afternoon/evening).

I think you’re right. The 12z CMC also gets tangled up over Central America, and like the ICON, it shows a weak system that’s probably more influenced by the westward low level flow. The real test will be if we get rapid genesis like the GFS and how the models respond.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Another problem with this if it hits SW FL is that a lot of snow birds that don't live in FL during the summer are now there, and they probably have no clue what to do if a hurricane approaches. I know my parents got there a couple of weeks ago, and I don't know if it's hit any of the news channels there yet, but in a couple of days I am going to start making calls to let them know whats going on.

[SFLcane]

fyi, gefs has been showing the possible threat to fl for many days. Your just seeing it on the op's now GFS,ECMWF

[chaser1]

CMC pretty much suggesting the same idea as ICON with a weaker more shallow system tracking further west. It'll be interesting to see whether the GFS backs off its 72 hr. + intensity forecast over its next two model runs. Fortunately, I'm sure we'll have this as an invest by tonight

[chaser1]

Another problem with this if it hits SW FL is that a lot of snow birds that don't live in FL during the summer are now there, and they probably have no clue what to do if a hurricane approaches. I know my parents got there a couple of weeks ago, and I don't know if it's hit any of the news channels there yet, but in a couple of days I am going to start making calls to let them know whats going on.

That's a great point that I hadn't thought at all about. Talk about a potentially compounded problem?! One simply being the increased population at risk. The other being the added component of additional traffic and confusion prior too and during any required evacuation.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, GFS basically has an Ian/Wilma like storm, except this is all happening during NOVEMBER.

Also, if for whatever godforsaken reason this system becomes a Category 5, 2024 will join 2005 in being the only two recorded seasons with more than 2 Category 5 systems.