Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Tireman4]

Majority if not all the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in the NW caribbean.

That is not good for south florida right? Isn't a cold front supposed to swing down in the middle to end of next week?

I know there is a cold front moving through north Texas Wednesday/Thursday but I don't know how far south it gets.

It is supposed to stall out just to the north of Houston, the last time I read.

[chaser1]

That is not good for south florida right? Isn't a cold front supposed to swing down in the middle to end of next week?

I know there is a cold front moving through north Texas Wednesday/Thursday but I don't know how far south it gets.

It is supposed to stall out just to the north of Houston, the last time I read.

Yep, it seems as if upper level support flattens out with overall ridging in the East for at least a little while longer. Longer range EURO doesn't seem to change much out to 240 hr but last night's GFS does begin to break down E CONUS ridging at that range. Hard to know this far out though.

[wzrgirl1]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

Wasn't it supposed to develop this week?

The GFS recently had gone on a pretty steady roll of consecutive forecasts depicting development of a TS on November 1st. I was subjectively basing that off the forecast time at the point when the model first depicted a 1000 mb low for this disturbance. The 0Z from last night went all the way out to Nov 5 however and then the 6Z this a.m. came back with development on Nov 2, so there is some variability here. Naturally, this is simply "one tool" and no individual model should ever be viewed literally. We'll see if the 12Z run rolling out now more or less reverts to forecasting a 1000 mb low in the Caribbean around the Nov 1/2 time frame, or whether the GFS and other Globals push back development a few days further out. The various ensembles are probably the best tool to determine whether the time frame seems to move closer or if the goal posts are indeed getting further pushed back. One thing I am beginning to see though is that both the GFS and EURO seem to be backing off on any near-term progression of any strong cold front/sharp trough down toward the N. GOM. Seems like the tropics are still trying to enforce its Easterlies pattern just a little bit longer. Whether this verifies will have a lot to do with near to mid-term storm track in the event something does form in the next 4-8 days. Beyond that, steering is just too hard to forecast during this seasonal transition.

November 1st is only 3 days away.

[SFLcane]

[chaser1]

For what it's worth, the most recent 3 ICON (12Z & 0Z) model runs are now holding fast to a Nov 4/5 time frame. The operational GFS no longer depicts a 1000 mb low on or prior to Nov 5 and seems to be having a harder time resolving development details in part as a result of the broader gyre/pattern it's forecasting to evolve. The EURO seems to be battling the same complexity of conditions.

Personally, i'd throw out anything random that the CMC forecasts. I'd give the ICON some credence in light of recent storm model forecast history, especially if picking up on what could be a smaller meso-scale development. Will be interesting to see whether GFS & EURO ensembles tend to increase or back off their signal for development prior to Nov 6. I would have thought that any added "juice" toward genesis given the forecast MJO signal would have begun or occurred by that date.

[chaser1]

Wasn't it supposed to develop this week?

The GFS recently had gone on a pretty steady roll of consecutive forecasts depicting development of a TS on November 1st. I was subjectively basing that off the forecast time at the point when the model first depicted a 1000 mb low for this disturbance. The 0Z from last night went all the way out to Nov 5 however and then the 6Z this a.m. came back with development on Nov 2, so there is some variability here. Naturally, this is simply "one tool" and no individual model should ever be viewed literally. We'll see if the 12Z run rolling out now more or less reverts to forecasting a 1000 mb low in the Caribbean around the Nov 1/2 time frame, or whether the GFS and other Globals push back development a few days further out. The various ensembles are probably the best tool to determine whether the time frame seems to move closer or if the goal posts are indeed getting further pushed back. One thing I am beginning to see though is that both the GFS and EURO seem to be backing off on any near-term progression of any strong cold front/sharp trough down toward the N. GOM. Seems like the tropics are still trying to enforce its Easterlies pattern just a little bit longer. Whether this verifies will have a lot to do with near to mid-term storm track in the event something does form in the next 4-8 days. Beyond that, steering is just too hard to forecast during this seasonal transition.

November 1st is only 3 days away.

Yep. I think its pretty apparent that we're not going to see any development any earlier than Nov 4. Whether shortly thereafter is a waiting game. That's why I hate model forecasts and much prefer to be eye-balling an existing disturbance

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/wvFGH7fS/vvv.jpg

Gets even wilder at 234 hr. Mid level high over deepening twins LOL

[SFLcane]

12z models ramping up this afternoon with diffirent solutions.

[kevin]

Dual hurricanes in the Atlantic, why not it's only November...

[WaveBreaking]

Dual hurricanes in the Atlantic, why not it's only November...

https://i.imgur.com/cSwi84Q.png

The Day After Tomorrow-type situation in November. Why not

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or
northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[kevin]

12z Euro with a TS near Yucatan at +240 hours, 1002 mb and further west than 00z.

[Michele B]

Dual hurricanes in the Atlantic, why not it's only November...

https://i.imgur.com/cSwi84Q.png

We’ll, if there’s one thing we know about 2024, it’s to expect *anything*

[blp]

Being by the Yucatan is a dangerous spot. Looks like there won't enough of a ridge to drive into Mexico. It will be far enough north waiting for the next shortwave to bring it up.

Euro


GFS

[SFLcane]

12z EPS has a strong signal in the NW caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

That is a shocking number of Euro ensembles that go deep into the Gulf of Mexico in November.

Not surprising though. Strong high pressure has made it well above normal along the northern gulf. 80s and close to 90 last few weeks

[xironman]

Dual hurricanes in the Atlantic, why not it's only November...

https://i.imgur.com/cSwi84Q.png

We’ll, if there’s one thing we know about 2024, it’s to expect *anything*

That and 57 will lose the office poll

[SFLcane]

Nhc eventually might want consider moving that development graphic westward.

[Hurricane2022]

Dual hurricanes in the Atlantic, why not it's only November...

https://i.imgur.com/cSwi84Q.png

We’ll, if there’s one thing we know about 2024, it’s to expect *anything*

That and 57 will lose the office poll

Let us agree that losing an office poll is a canonical event in the life of any man in his work environment. It's always bad to lose but it's nice for fun. but either way this is the kind of bet I would hardly expect to lose ...2024 is still being 2024 unfortunately.

[cycloneye]

No change with that 40%, but the development area changed a bit.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system drifts generally northward over the
west-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch