Why is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season underperforming expectations?

[mitchell]

Many people thought Beryl was confirmation that a truly hyperactive season was on the way due to 2005/1933 being the only comparable analogs in that set up. Now it is September 6th, no storm has formed since the 12th of August and it's unlikely a storm will form before the 10th. 2024 has shown that current activity is not necessarily a good predictor of future activity, this could prove itself true again due to agencies like CSU still predicting an active back end despite what's going on now.

I remember hearing those discussions and remember being skeptical that one strong storm forming as early as Beryl did was somehow confirmation that the entire season was going to be a blockbuster. Seemed a bit unfounded at the time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is now a high probability we make it to September 10th without even a tropical storm developing. Climatology will begin to turn against the basin after that.

[gatorcane]

It doesn't look like the 12Z GFS will have any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin through the two-week run, which is remarkable for this time of year.

[toad strangler]

There is now a high probability we make it to September 10th without even a tropical storm developing. Climatology will begin to turn against the basin after that.

Large swaths of it as we move into mid to late September for sure, but there are still many areas that climo likes right through to the end of October and even November such as the W Carribean NE through the FL peninsula and the W Greater Antilles. But this season is just different. It would truly be amazing to go the rest of the season without a major impact somewhere. I was skeptical pre 9/1 (past lessons) but I'm a buyer now.

[psyclone]

We're nearing 9-10 climo peak where there is a 9 in 10 chance of a storm. Will we thread that needle too? What a stretch. Al least 2013 is well positioned to no longer be the year of scorn if this keeps up.

[WeatherBoy2000]

It doesn't look like the 12Z GFS will have any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin through the two-week run, which is remarkable for this time of year.

At this point it seems like we're in the dark on what's going to happen in the second half of the season. Models have been incredibly inconsistent from run to run. Forecasters/models have been saying things are going to get active in the second half, but the predicted flip has been continually pushed back for weeks now. Imo if a switch flip ever happens there won't be much warning.

[chaser1]

It doesn't look like the 12Z GFS will have any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin through the two-week run, which is remarkable for this time of year.

At this point it seems like we're in the dark on what's going to happen in the second half of the season. Models have been incredibly inconsistent from run to run. Forecasters/models have been saying things are going to get active in the second half, but the predicted flip has been continually pushed back for weeks now. Imo if a switch flip ever happens there won't be much warning.

I think that's a reasonable assumption. Even if models begin to steadily suggest tropical development I'm not convinced that I would pay too much attention (unless or until they were to begin to verify).

[Ptarmigan]

It doesn't look like the 12Z GFS will have any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin through the two-week run, which is remarkable for this time of year.

At this point it seems like we're in the dark on what's going to happen in the second half of the season. Models have been incredibly inconsistent from run to run. Forecasters/models have been saying things are going to get active in the second half, but the predicted flip has been continually pushed back for weeks now. Imo if a switch flip ever happens there won't be much warning.

There is always uncertainty.

[Ptarmigan]

Many people thought Beryl was confirmation that a truly hyperactive season was on the way due to 2005/1933 being the only comparable analogs in that set up. Now it is September 6th, no storm has formed since the 12th of August and it's unlikely a storm will form before the 10th. 2024 has shown that current activity is not necessarily a good predictor of future activity, this could prove itself true again due to agencies like CSU still predicting an active back end despite what's going on now.

I remember hearing those discussions and remember being skeptical that one strong storm forming as early as Beryl did was somehow confirmation that the entire season was going to be a blockbuster. Seemed a bit unfounded at the time.

I am pretty sure there have been stronger hurricanes than Beryl in July in the past.

[REDHurricane]

It doesn't look like the 12Z GFS will have any tropical systems in the Atlantic basin through the two-week run, which is remarkable for this time of year.

At this point it seems like we're in the dark on what's going to happen in the second half of the season. Models have been incredibly inconsistent from run to run. Forecasters/models have been saying things are going to get active in the second half, but the predicted flip has been continually pushed back for weeks now. Imo if a switch flip ever happens there won't be much warning.

It almost feels like we're watching the switch flip in exaggerated slow motion right now as opposed to the usually rapid flip that occurs over the span of like 2-3 days, like if you took a normal switch flip and recorded it with a high speed camera at 10,000 FPS. This season clearly has no regard for the rules and guidelines that typical hurricane seasons follow, so I'm honestly not even factoring in climatology at all when trying to predict how the next few months will turn out. Watch there be no named storms in the Atlantic basin on September 10 but one or multiple active hurricanes on November 10 or something like that; basically nothing would surprise me at this point

[cycloneye]

The persistant +NAO says Webb.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1832465282570563616

@webberweather
There's a lot of reasons this Atlantic Hurricane Season has been underperforming thus far. One thing that's definitely not getting enough attention imho is the persistently & record strong +NAO we've seen this summer.

The fingerprints of the record strong +NAO are all over the dry/stable air issues in the MDR and the "cold AMO like" SSTa trends we've seen since early summer

[Teban54]

The persistant +NAO says Webb.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1832465282570563616

@webberweather
There's a lot of reasons this Atlantic Hurricane Season has been underperforming thus far. One thing that's definitely not getting enough attention imho is the persistently & record strong +NAO we've seen this summer.

The fingerprints of the record strong +NAO are all over the dry/stable air issues in the MDR and the "cold AMO like" SSTa trends we've seen since early summer

As Danny pointed out in comments, +NAO was also common in previous hyperactive years. While their magnitude may not be as extreme as 2024's according to the one particular metric that showed 2024 setting a monthly record, Larry also said that another NAO metric shows a much less anomalous +NAO for Aug 2024.

In addition, last year had a persistent -NAO during peak season, and it was blamed for not allowing the year to live up to its true ACE potential by turning too many storms (Margot, Nigel) out to sea too quickly. Lee happened during a very brief +NAO period.

(This is not to dispute any of the interesting and valid points that Eric made.)

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1832466163311505605

[Hammy]

The persistant +NAO says Webb.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1832465282570563616

@webberweather
There's a lot of reasons this Atlantic Hurricane Season has been underperforming thus far. One thing that's definitely not getting enough attention imho is the persistently & record strong +NAO we've seen this summer.

The fingerprints of the record strong +NAO are all over the dry/stable air issues in the MDR and the "cold AMO like" SSTa trends we've seen since early summer

As Danny pointed out in comments, +NAO was also common in previous hyperactive years. While their magnitude may not be as extreme as 2024's according to the one particular metric that showed 2024 setting a monthly record, Larry also said that another NAO metric shows a much less anomalous +NAO for Aug 2024.

In addition, last year had a persistent -NAO during peak season, and it was blamed for not allowing the year to live up to its true ACE potential by turning too many storms (Margot, Nigel) out to sea too quickly. Lee happened during a very brief +NAO period.

(This is not to dispute any of the interesting and valid points that Eric made.)

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1832466163311505605

What was it in late August to mid-September 2000 I wonder, this season seems like it's going to be 2000 redux but with a longer (and more total) near-peak lull

[Kingarabian]

What about the abnormally late EPAC season start? Maybe tied to this shutdown.

[aspen]

What about the abnormally late EPAC season start? Maybe tied to this shutdown.

The EPac taking until July 25th to produce a single full unit of ACE is definitely abnormal. However, a slow EPac was pretty much expected this year with the decaying El Niño and incoming La Niña. But perhaps this exceptionally slow start a sign that what’s impacting the Atlantic is something larger-scale, like global upper tropospheric warming from either the Tonga water vapor plume and/or this year’s enhanced solar activity.

[mitchell]

I am pretty sure there have been stronger hurricanes than Beryl in July in the past.

Possibly Hurricane Emily did get stronger later in the month in the month of July, but Beryl was the earliest Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin. So no Atl. storm on record has been that strong that early.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am pretty sure there have been stronger hurricanes than Beryl in July in the past.

Possibly Hurricane Emily did get stronger later in the month in the month of July, but Beryl was the earliest Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin. So no Atl. storm on record has been that strong that early.

The fact that we've never had a Category 4 hurricane in the MDR in June and a Category 5 hurricane in early July (especially one packing 1-min sustained winds of 165 mph) in the satellite era and the recordable past is inherently an alarming feat. Beryl blasted so many records out of the water, and, at least for me, really changed the way I look at the Atlantic basin's capabilities. I mean, sure, there theoretically could've been a Beryl-like storm in the far past, but assuming this were even remotely true, the idea that you have to look that far back in time for a storm like this is really something else.

[chaser1]

I think a new 2024 Remainder of 2024 Atlantic season Forecast poll with a short fuse 3 day deadline, for Sept. 10 - Nov 30 would be fascinating given the extreme unknown and disparity of opinion regarding what the remainder of the season will bring

[EasyTiger]

This season has almost an almost 1989 feel to it. Predictions for this year were for an extremely active season. However if you look at 1989, the bulk of the storms were mid-September on with Hurricane Hugo in mid to late September being quite the beast. Early fall fronts, followed by tranquil weather for a few weeks until activity fired back up. The MJO also kicks up mid-September which will positively influence convection the remainder of the Fall.

[jconsor]

My expectation for Sep 10-Nov 30 is: ACE 75-100
5-6 hurricanes
3 MH

We'll see!

I think a new 2024 Remainder of 2024 Atlantic season Forecast poll with a short fuse 3 day deadline, for Sept. 10 - Nov 30 would be fascinating given the extreme unknown and disparity of opinion regarding what the remainder of the season will bring