Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[blp]

Well looking at this loop I think I spot a small ULL working East of Florida diving SW. I cannot see it in 200mb chart but if it is an an ULL that will put a monkey wrench into the shear forecast in the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well looking at this loop I think I spot a small ULL working East of Florida diving SW. I cannot see it in 200mb chart but if it is an an ULL that will put a monkey wrench into the shear forecast in the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

That means even more shear correct?

[Javlin]

Well looking at this loop I think I spot a small ULL working East of Florida diving SW. I cannot see it in 200mb chart but if it is an an ULL that will put a monkey wrench into the shear forecast in the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

That means even more shear correct?

Pretty much.ULL's in the correct quadrant and distance can help for evacuation on a depression/storm which we have neither ATTM.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well looking at this loop I think I spot a small ULL working East of Florida diving SW. I cannot see it in 200mb chart but if it is an an ULL that will put a monkey wrench into the shear forecast in the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

That means even more shear correct?

Pretty much.ULL's in the correct quadrant and distance can help for evacuation on a depression/storm which we have neither ATTM.

What do you mean by evacuation?

Also, the convection is almost completely gone and it does not look to be firing up any new convection. It is officially a dud in my book but I am but a mere mortal and untrained in this field.

[Nimbus]

High tower blowing up off ft Myers / Port Charlotte area. This is a good sign as we are at the diurnal minimum.

That looks like it might focus the center of circulation further south, NHC must be deciding where to initialize.
If that latest convection burst keeps up overnight this thread could be closed by 11 AM tomorrow.

Nimbus, you see the potential of the Low forming a bit farther south in the deepest convection off the SW Florida coast? That area has been pulsating convection all day consistently. NHC at the current time has the 1010 mb Low initialized about 50 miles west of Tampa Bay on the surface analysis.

The surface low is still west of Tampa, convection is sheared south but a little more persistent overnight than it has been.
Sometimes the surface low will reform under the deepest convection if the shear isn't too strong.

This morning if the shear begins to ease the convection will likely creep back north, and try to wrap during the daytime heating.

[tailgater]

Shortwave sat loop showing a weak sheared low NW of Tampa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ ... p-ir2.html

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, you can see the Low rather good this morning. We await to see if shear levels will decrease just a bit today through tomorrow. If shear can slacken just a bit, we may see this try to spin up. Also, convection to the south and southeast of where the Low is currently positioned sustained itself through the overnight. This system I feel still has a chance to develop this week.

[NDG]

Models do not show any drop in the northeasterly shear any time soon. This low will remain weak. IMO.

[ronjon]

Certainly becoming more organized this morning based on RAD. There is a clear COC about 40 miles west of Pasco county. Some banding is present and convection has blossomed this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see anything evolving from this, lowest surface pressures are well to the north of the more persistent convection, add shear and no real model support and you have to give in.

Might need to watch back further west in the Gulf south of LA later in the week, ECM with lots of unsettled weather there.


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[NDG]

Evidence that the upper level winds are just too strong for much development in the eastern GOM, in the 20-30 knot range.

[NDG]

COC clearly seen NW of Tampa on long radar loop but you can also see how the shear is affecting the cloud tops and precip in the higher levels.

Speed up the loop:

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displ ... duration=4

[tropicwatch]

If the shear lets up, we might see some quicker development. That is if the low holds together.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well the shear is the thing killing it or at least hindering it. I seen several people saying that the shear is not letting up. If that is the case the thing can not form right?

[tropicwatch]

Shear might be lightening up. Convection is building pretty good.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28.5&lon=-84.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[gatorcane]

I am not sure if this is a mistake in the model but the United Kingdom model (UKMET), which has historically been a pretty good model for forecasting tropical systems (usually conservative and doesn't overdo systems like the CMC), is really blowing this thing up between 96 and 144 hours along the SE coast of the U.S.. It moves the system from the Eastern Gulf slowly north then NE along the SE Coast of the United States where it becomes a hurricane:

[NCSTORMMAN]

Anyone else notice the vorticity chart is showing the spin is now closer to the low position near Tampa?

[gatorcane]

Here is another loop of the low pressure area. It does appear to be looking a bit better the past few hours as it lost a good amount of convection overnight. The spin is pretty evident (look just NW of Tampa area offshore). Still think NHC should be shading the area with the shading stretching N out of the NE/E GOM then NE over North-Central Florida to an area a little off the SE United States coast. Seems like conditions could be a lot better if this area can cross over (or develop) on the Atlantic side. I would give it a 10/30% chance at development (off SE U.S. coast) over the next 5 days.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[tolakram]

Live visible loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tropicwatch]

Kind of getting that look or it could just be my eyes.