Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

[Sanibel]

Some tiny pops in there.

[ROCK]

I don't see any evidence of an LLC (Low-Level Circulation Center). I do see that the wave is about to reach an area of quite high wind shear associated with an upper-level low to its east (eastern Bahamas).

huh? you can see a LLC partially exposed on sat view....surely you must be joking.....


shear is dropping some....that ULL is supposed to retrograde..anticyclone to the south and west...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

I don't see any evidence of an LLC (Low-Level Circulation Center). I do see that the wave is about to reach an area of quite high wind shear associated with an upper-level low to its east (eastern Bahamas).

huh? you can see a LLC partially exposed on sat view....surely you must be joking.....


shear is dropping some....that ULL is supposed to retrograde..anticyclone to the south and west...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I see some curved outflow boundaries giving the appearance of an LLC, but no evidence of clouds streaming in toward a center from the south through west. If recon flew in I don't think they'd find any westerly wind component. Could be some mid-level rotation. Shear is still quite high immediately to its west. Yes, that low will retrograde, but its speed may match the wave's so the wave may remain in the higher shear area.

[floridasun78]

when wx post bad news for tropical wave he look like want have few storm system season wx what your forecast for 2013 season???

[Dean4Storms]

I see an increase in an overall circulation since dawn, if the convection continues over the Low this will pop IMO. Don't know quite yet khow much shear will impact it as they are both moving westward in near tandem.

[Dean4Storms]

Ugh, anyone else seeing the convection popping near the LLC and also the banding in the NE Quad???


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

I see it Dean...fighting some shear though...


here is a 4KM sat view..Ramm has a floater on it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

I noticed they have moved the 1km floater down at the bottom to it, but so far only 1 frame there.

[Dean4Storms]

I also see the early stages of LL clouds to the west of the system moving eastward into the circulation.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the models have it weaken pretty quickly over the next 36 hours. Looks like the easterlies really get a hold of it.

[Dean4Storms]

This would be just the kind of small system the models have had a tendency to miss this year.

[MGC]

System is so small I can't tell if there is something going. Maybe when it gets more towards the WCarb.....MGC

[Sanibel]

Looks like show time from here...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Glad all the experts are on this one here. Those guys at NHC clearly are losing it...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

My eyes must be as well. Cause I sure don't see a thing resembling anything close to something that is about to pop or go into go time. NYC has this at 0% for five days and I see nothing to differ. As wxman said all there is no signs of an llc. Just an outflow boundary moving w and nw giving the appearance of a small circulation.

[Hammy]

I doubt anything is closed at the surface but there does seem to be some weak storm-relative rotation, and the flow seems to be somewhat sharp if you look at the entire Caribbean satellite. And whether it will last there seems to be some inflow streams setting up on the south end. Not a high chance but seems greater than zero to me.

[djones65]

I personally do not think this nor the other perturbation at 54W will develop. However, I must comment that surface observations from the Lesser Antilles this morning clearly showed this has a low level circulation. It may not have a well defined center of circulation, but a broad closed low is definitely present. Winds at Barbados, St. Luicia, and St. Vincent turned from NE and north to southwest as the system moved through.

With that being said I agree that the low level easterly flow is accelerating it and I suspect it will struggle or fall apart as it moves through the eastern and central Caribbean in the next couple days.

[tailgater]

Did anyone else see the obs I posted as it passed Barbados.
There was a LLC or Very close to it as it passed the Islands at the surface.





24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 1 AM (5) Aug 07 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) S 9 showers in the vicinity
Midnight (4) Aug 07 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) SSW 8
11 PM (3) Aug 06 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) SW 12
10 PM (2) Aug 06 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) S 14 light rain
9 PM (1) Aug 06 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) ESE 8 light rain
8 PM (0) Aug 06 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ESE 10 light rain; showers in the vicinity
7 PM (23) Aug 06 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NNE 7
6 PM (22) Aug 06 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) ENE 3
5 PM (21) Aug 06 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) E 6 light rain
4 PM (20) No Data
3 PM (19) Aug 06 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) ESE 13
2 PM (18) Aug 06 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) E 14

[northjaxpro]

I personally do not think this nor the other perturbation at 54W will develop. However, I must comment that surface observations from the Lesser Antilles this morning clearly showed this has a low level circulation. It may not have a well defined center of circulation, but a broad closed low is definitely present. Winds at Barbados, St. Luicia, and St. Vincent turned from NE and north to southwest as the system moved through.

With that being said I agree that the low level easterly flow is accelerating it and I suspect it will struggle or fall apart as it moves through the eastern and central Caribbean in the next couple days.

I generally agree with you. Conditions just are not conducive for this feature to developm especially over the next 72 hours. Still watch it though as Dorian just showed us, you never know. If this system somehow finds a way to get through the shear in the next few days and can keep some vorticity intact, it may have a shot in the western Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[ROCK]

up to 10% after being 0% earlier

yeah it might die soon but it does have a weak LLC...not as exposed as before. Proof? see Bardados as it passed right over it...if it sustains maybe it could get going....I agree.... another small system the models would think it was a sprinkle in the carib...


just like the other weak exposed / dry LLC approaching the islands right now....

[BigB0882]

Someone said this may form after moving into the E. Pacific. Is the steering really straightforward and a given that this will go due West until it crosses Central America? Any chance this could begin lifting?