Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[HURAKAN]

GFS keeps the low meandering for a few days

[Dean4Storms]

This is all we need, has me worried as well. Noticed throughout today on high resolution radar from weathertap.com a small MLC spinning away about 100 miles south of Appalachicola and dropping south just north of a big area of convection.

You can somewhat make it out on this long range loop, it is the area just north of the yellow/orange convection and almost looks to have any eye like feature on radar!!

Speed up the animation and you see it better!!


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... H&loop=yes

[Frank P]

recent pictures of oil on Horn Island, the barrier islands off the MS coast

http://www.gulfcoastnews.com/GCNnewsOil ... 063010.htm

[HURAKAN]

805 pm TWD:

EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
MOISTURE FROM ALEX REMAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE
CONUS APPROACHES THE AREA.

[Frank P]

This is all we need, has me worried as well. Noticed throughout today on high resolution radar from weathertap.com a small MLC spinning away about 100 miles south of Appalachicola and dropping south just north of a big area of convection.

You can somewhat make it out on this long range loop, it is the area just north of the yellow/orange convection and almost looks to have any eye like feature on radar!!

Speed up the animation and you see it better!!


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... H&loop=yes

Actually if you look at the overall picture the entire radar presentation has like a counter clockwise spin to it.. storms in Ga going west, storms in AL going south, storm out in the GOM going east and storms in Fl going north.. interesting spin.. I also see what appears to be several little vortices out there as well

[ronjon]

I think whatever develops will be slow and weak as upper level winds are only marginal for development and land interaction looks like a real possibility. It may turn out to be one of those lop-sided sheared tropical storms that hugs the coast for several days. I think the chances for development are better than 50 percent with model consensus, a surface trough coming down, the very warm SSTs, and tropical moisture already in place.

[lonelymike]

Betcha nothing develops

[Frank P]

Betcha nothing develops

Yeah, I'd be surprised if anything developed either.. just enough rain to screw up the holiday weekend.. but it might be the only thing to watch this weekend..

[lonelymike]

Betcha nothing develops

Yeah, I'd be surprised if anything developed either.. just enough rain to screw up the holiday weekend.. but it might be the only thing to watch this weekend..

Yeah the local NWS offices don't seem to buy into any of the model solutions so I really don't get too excited if they don't.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

that must be the NAM...IVAN....

[Ivanhater]

that must be the NAM...IVAN....

I couldn't resist

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity moving south

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be consensus on that coast-running low...Bonnie watch this weekend?

[lebron23]

00z CMC does a florida tour..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Cyclenall]

00z CMC does a florida tour..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Wow, a track like that would be unprecedented. It takes the storm and nearly outlines the coast of Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Add the ukmet to the models

[xcool22]

add ECMWF