Joe Bastardi: 16-18 named storms, top 10 year

[Texas Snowman]

That statement was based off of Wiki (which can certainly be erroneous).

But here's another published example (which references NOAA's Mark Powell's surge destructive scale):

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hur ... 38812.html

"The number for Ike on Powell's "surge destructive potential" scale was 4.2 at landfall, he said.

Ike, therefore, would have been a Category 2 storm for winds and a Category 4 storm for surge, a number that would have more accurately reflected its potential for damage."

And there are still charts on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale out there that suggest such levels (again, perhaps erroneously).

Like this one at: http://www.comet.ucar.edu/nsflab/web/hurricane/3145.htm

Category Wind Speed Storm Surge Damage
km/hr mi/hr m ft


1 119-154 74-95 1-2 4-5 Minimal

2 155-178 96-110 2-3 6-8 Moderate

3 179-210 111-130 3-4 9-12 Extensive

4 211-250 131-155 4-6 13-18 Extreme

5 >250 >155 >6 >18 Catastrophic

[wxman57]

The May ECMWF seasonal maps have been released. Compare the 2009 and 2010 pressure anomaly maps for August-October. I can't imagine more of a reversal from 2009. Same with the rain maps. With each month, the EC keeps forecasting lower and lower pressures in the tropics.

2009 Aug-Oct Pressure Anomaly:


2010 Aug-Oct Pressure Anomaly:


2009 Aug-Oct Rainfall:


2010 Aug-Oct Rainfall:


For comparison, the July 2008 Aug-Oct pressure anomaly. Note that we had very low pressures in the Atlantic for Ike and Gustav - BUT the pressures in the Pacific were not very high. That's a big difference which could significantly enhance 2010 over 2008:

[vbhoutex]

Wxman57 you are just chock full of good news!!!

[thetruesms]

That statement was based off of Wiki (which can certainly be erroneous).

But here's another published example (which references NOAA's Mark Powell's surge destructive scale):

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hur ... 38812.html

"The number for Ike on Powell's "surge destructive potential" scale was 4.2 at landfall, he said.

Ike, therefore, would have been a Category 2 storm for winds and a Category 4 storm for surge, a number that would have more accurately reflected its potential for damage."

And there are still charts on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale out there that suggest such levels (again, perhaps erroneously).

Like this one at: http://www.comet.ucar.edu/nsflab/web/hurricane/3145.htm

Category Wind Speed Storm Surge Damage
km/hr mi/hr m ft


1 119-154 74-95 1-2 4-5 Minimal

2 155-178 96-110 2-3 6-8 Moderate

3 179-210 111-130 3-4 9-12 Extensive

4 211-250 131-155 4-6 13-18 Extreme

5 >250 >155 >6 >18 Catastrophic

Any reference connecting surge to SS needs to be updated, as surge information has been officially stricken from the scale, as presented here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... icane.html

Does anyone more in the know have an idea how they will treat surge from here on out? Will there be another scale developed, or will they just refer to the forecast height? I can't imagine they'd just leave it out - that smacks too much of the old ban on tornado forecasts.

[Texas Snowman]

Thanks for that update...somehow I missed it. Guess I was busy thinking about snow in Texas this past winter when this tropical news came out.

The link also showed a stunning pic of Hurricane Ike. Hadn't seen this image before. Makes a killer storm look almost beautiful...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... ke2008.jpg

[Macrocane]

It seems that it will be a very wet rainy season for the Caribbean and Central America according to those maps that wxman57 posted, especially if tropical cyclones affect the region.

[Blown Away]

What affect, if any, will the lower pressures have on storm tracks in the Caribbean?

[KWT]

Better conditions for storms to develop and probably also a chance of them having lower pressure then you'd expect because the background pressures would aslso be lower as well.

[Category 5]

Ike didn't have a "Cat 5 storm surge", it had a Cat 2 storm surge. That's what a large Cat 2 can produce as far as a storm surge. Only a Cat 5 can produce a Cat 5 storm surge, though a small Cat 5 would produce less of a surge than a large Cat 2 (like Ike). Time to stop referring to storm surges as being related to the Saffir-Simpson scale, it's only a wind scale and not a surge scale.

By the way, Texas City never called for an evacuation with Ike. Ike's surge reached the top of the dike, depositing debris on top of the dike. Had Ike moved ashore just 10-20 miles farther down the coast (southern Galveston), then Ike's surge would have topped the dike and put 6-12 feet of water into Texas City and 6-9 feet of water into other communities along the west side of Galveston Bay (League City, Clear Lake, etc.)

Another deadly misconception about hurricanes is exactly this. Surge height is determined more by the size and location than by the intensity. Ike is the poster child for this

[wxman57]

Interesting comment on JB's blog this morning. Somehow he got the idea that S2K's official 2010 season forecast is 24-27 named storms:

From JB:
TUESDAY AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8 is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

[cycloneye]

Interesting comment on JB's blog this morning. Somehow he got the idea that S2K's official 2010 season forecast is 24-27 named storms:

From JB:
TUESDAY AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8 is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

Hmmm,he is getting here as a guest. But what in the world he is talkling about that Storm2k has a forecast. Maybe he saw the link that I posted of that private firm forecast in the countdown thread and assumed it was Storm2k.

[wxman57]

Interesting comment on JB's blog this morning. Somehow he got the idea that S2K's official 2010 season forecast is 24-27 named storms:

From JB:
TUESDAY AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8 is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

Hmmm,he is getting here as a guest. But what in the world he is talkling about that Storm2k has a forecast. Maybe he saw the link that I posted of that private firm forecast in the countdown thread and assumed it was Storm2k.

Obviously, he saw that post and took it to be S2K's official position on the season.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting comment on JB's blog this morning. Somehow he got the idea that S2K's official 2010 season forecast is 24-27 named storms:

From JB:
TUESDAY AND NOW, STORM 2K WEIGHS IN!

Another hurricane forecast, as super counterweight to Weather Research with their 8 is now in. Storm 2k has 24-27 storms!

Hmmm,he is getting here as a guest. But what in the world he is talkling about that Storm2k has a forecast. Maybe he saw the link that I posted of that private firm forecast in the countdown thread and assumed it was Storm2k.

Obviously, he saw that post and took it to be S2K's official position on the season.

I had to laugh a bit when I saw this. Perhaps JB and his staff should read a bit more before assuming such things.

[thetruesms]

Reading comprehension takes a 1-0 lead over JB. When is the next game in the series?

[robbielyn]

http://www.accuweather.com/video/731462 ... season.asp Very interesting what Joe says as to the lack of importance of la nina in the overall scheme of things He calls this broadbrushing. 2004 was an el nino year 2005 not la nina but what they have in common is the tripole in the atlantic have to offset the imbalance of the increased heat in the atlantic as global temps cool how? By forming hurricanes to distribute the heat.

[KWT]

I think Joe is very right, I do think the La Nina is over-egged, at least in the warm phase of the tropical Atlantic.

I've even gone as far as to suggest that a moderate La Nina slightly caps the bigger seasons to about 15-16 storms.

Also looks at seasons like 1969 which were also borderline El Ninos, as was 2004 and 2005 wasn't that far off either at 0.4C+

So IMO La Ninas do help but I don't think they are all that important in the grand scheme of things...not until they reach stronger levels anyway.

[brunota2003]

Neutral and La Nina seasons tend to produce similar numbers of storms...though La Nina does tend to have slightly more favorable conditions. 2004 started off as El Nino before switching to Neutral, too.

[robbielyn]

adminstrators i meant to put this under joe bastardi's thread under 16-18 storms topic and hit new topic instead if you want you can move it there. thnx

[Macrocane]

I don't think that the ENSO phase has nothing to do with tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, IMO it's the interaction between several factor that make an Atlantic Hurricane season activo or inactive, ENSO is one of them, NAO, Atlantic tripole, PDO, AMO, MJO all of them play an important role so this time I kind of disagree with him when he says that La Niña (or Neutrol or El Niño) has nothing to do with the hurrican seasons.

[Category 5]

La Nina doesn't seem to affect the number of storms we see, but the conditions are just more favorable. Example, look at 1998-1999. The numbers of storms weren't exceptional, but those seasons had a lot of long track and powerful Hurricanes compared to say 2000-2003.