Long Range Models

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything out there that points to any increased
activity then would be normally expected during the month
of July. This season is looking as average as average can be.
Which means yes you will have some storms but nothing like
2004 & 2005. Anyway remember it only takes one major storm
to cause massive loss of life and destruction.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see anything out there that points to any increased
activity then would be normally expected during the month
of July. This season is looking as average as average can be.
Which means yes you will have some storms but nothing like
2004 & 2005. Anyway remember it only takes one major storm
to cause massive loss of life and destruction.

NOAA disagrees with you (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml), but based on some of their previous predictions, you could very well be right. It is definitely a little premature to be so sure in saying that we will not see storms like we did in 2004 or 2005 though. In terms of numbers, reaching a 2005-level is highly unlikely, but in terms of seeing multiple hurricane landfalls, there is just no way you could know that right now. It is only June 26th and we have many months of the season left to go. The number of landfalling hurricanes will be largely dependent on the steering patterns and the atmospheric conditions that develop over the next few months, and at this point how they will set up towards August and September is still a mystery. If we wind up with a 2004 or 2005 steering pattern or upper-level pattern, then even an "average" season (in terms of total storm numbers) could become a memorable and damaging one. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but at this point in time it is just way too early to know for sure.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Of course, law of averages doesn't mean anything explicitly, as active early seasons like 1997 (which turned out to be a very slow season overall) are balanced out by tropical cyclone free years for both June and July, but with an average of 1 June/July storm combined, and healthier than usual African wave train, I wouldn't be surprised by a July storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't care which way you look at it..Every year is different as is Every Storm.

[Jason_B]

I don't see anything out there that points to any increased
activity then would be normally expected during the month
of July. This season is looking as average as average can be.
Which means yes you will have some storms but nothing like
2004 & 2005. Anyway remember it only takes one major storm
to cause massive loss of life and destruction.

You can't really judge how "average" a season is in late June because there's usually nothing going on at this time. Even in 2004 it was dead up until August and then things ramped up. We'll know for sure in November how average or not this season is.

[Gustywind]

That idea sounds about right to me Ed. I think we will see a burst of stronger waves with perhaps one or two of them developing during the month of July as they try to push westward. Definitely seems like we are coming upon a much more interesting time than what we have seen recently in the tropics.

Absolutely Extremeweatherguy, agree with you, your're right and that's my feeling since mid- April , georgeous waves, frequent and decent train of waves, good appareance waves, very well builled in spite of the no less conducives conditions for the moment. We should have our second invest in less than 3 weeks for sure or maybe much more in my opinion. This year reminds me the year before but this one seems much more convective in terms of twave activity... after it's another story , time will tell , but very promising waves, they are on the verge of becoming more suspicious , keep watching it!

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything out there that points to any increased
activity then would be normally expected during the month
of July. This season is looking as average as average can be.
Which means yes you will have some storms but nothing like
2004 & 2005. Anyway remember it only takes one major storm
to cause massive loss of life and destruction.

NOAA disagrees with you (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml), but based on some of their previous predictions, you could very well be right. It is definitely a little premature to be so sure in saying that we will not see storms like we did in 2004 or 2005 though. In terms of numbers, reaching a 2005-level is highly unlikely, but in terms of seeing multiple hurricane landfalls, there is just no way you could know that right now. It is only June 26th and we have many months of the season left to go. The number of landfalling hurricanes will be largely dependent on the steering patterns and the atmospheric conditions that develop over the next few months, and at this point how they will set up towards August and September is still a mystery. If we wind up with a 2004 or 2005 steering pattern or upper-level pattern, then even an "average" season (in terms of total storm numbers) could become a memorable and damaging one. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but at this point in time it is just way too early to know for sure.

Thanks for the reply and you make some good points.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything out there that points to any increased
activity then would be normally expected during the month
of July. This season is looking as average as average can be.
Which means yes you will have some storms but nothing like
2004 & 2005. Anyway remember it only takes one major storm
to cause massive loss of life and destruction.

You can't really judge how "average" a season is in late June because there's usually nothing going on at this time. Even in 2004 it was dead up until August and then things ramped up. We'll know for sure in November how average or not this season is.

We've had a nice northwesterly flow and a blocking high most of this June. A very good early indicator even though we are not in the meat and potatoes of the season yet. IMO

Average= few if any landfalls (2006 & 2007)

Above average = too many landfalls to mention (2004 & 2005)

[Meso]

And let's remember that people were saying the same "This season is slow" , "No named storms yet?" etc throughout most of 2004... It was a late starting season but when it started boy did it start

12 CMC shows a hint of something



EURO 12z still showing a wave with a weak low

[canegrl04]

We really won't be able to judge what kind of season it will be until about mid August. More than 2 seasons without major hurricane landfalls in the US can also have a down side.People get complacent.If this year is slow,then we could very well see 2009 as very active with US landfalling hurricanes

[gatorcane]

It would be highly unlikely that anything of significance forms that far east in the Atlantic this time of year. It's possible we could get a weak low or an invest, but chances are it will wind up getting sheared to bits or fizzle over cool waters. In actuality there are 4 prime weeks that far out there and they start in mid Aug and last through mid September (although we can still see development through the last two weeks of September also some years).

[Stormcenter]

It would be highly unlikely that anything of significance forms that far east in the Atlantic this time of year. It's possible we could get a weak low or an invest, but chances are it will wind up getting sheared to bits or fizzle over cool waters. In actuality there are 4 prime weeks that far out there and they start in mid Aug and last through mid September (although we can still see development through the last two weeks of September also some years).

You hit it on the nail gatorcane. The "meat and potatoes" of the season is August 15th through September 15th. You've had most of your big ones during that time span.

[DESTRUCTION5]

It would be highly unlikely that anything of significance forms that far east in the Atlantic this time of year. It's possible we could get a weak low or an invest, but chances are it will wind up getting sheared to bits or fizzle over cool waters. In actuality there are 4 prime weeks that far out there and they start in mid Aug and last through mid September (although we can still see development through the last two weeks of September also some years).

You hit it on the nail gatorcane. The "meat and potatoes" of the season is August 15th through September 15th. You've had most of your big ones during that time span.

Humm I give 3 famous names that will contradict this..
Dennis-July,Michelle-Nov,Wilma-Oct

[Derek Ortt]

the meatand potators are from Aug 15 through the end of October. Not sure where you got September 15 from, stormcenter.

In fact, the peak of Miami's season is October

[Ed Mahmoud]

1996's Bertha was an early July Cape Verde Storm. Rare, but not completely unprecedented.


Despite outliers like Audrey and Kate, early August to late October does seem like the 'meat and potatoes'.



Texas' season, again, despite outliers like minimal Cat 1 Jerry in 1989 and, IIRC, a borderline 2/3 storm North of CRP in 1949, ends late September. Even with Rita that generally held, as Rita's center made landfall on the Louisiana side of the Sabine.


I personally find it tiresome that every time someone points out the climatological peak of the hurricane, someone feels compelled to weigh in and name a June and November exception to the rule. I think almost everyone here knows a big storm is possible near the beginning and end of the season, but there is a three month peak to the season, and the rest is hors d'oueveres or dessert.

[gatorcane]

the meatand potators are from Aug 15 through the end of October. Not sure where you got September 15 from, stormcenter.

In fact, the peak of Miami's season is October

Derek yes I wanted to let members know that Aug 15th - Sept 15th are the prime weeks of the Cape Verde season while the Caribbean season extends much longer through October typically.

[Cyclenall]

*Sigh*, I was hoping the new page filled with posts was going to be on-topic, not on the same thing that has been posted over 300 times alone within the last 2 months now.

[Meso]

18z has the wave emerging off Africa in 96 hours quite low in an area with high SSTs compared to the more Northern areas...

Develops a low after being off Africa for 12 hours..Time to sleep now though

[cycloneye]

In 144 hours.



In 168 hours:



in 192 hours:



In 288 hours.

[ColdFusion]

*Sigh*, I was hoping the new page filled with posts was going to be on-topic, not on the same thing that has been posted over 300 times alone within the last 2 months now.

It's almost as exciting as the thread where 90% of its posts are "Cut & Paste's" of the NWS Tropical Weather Discussion. Like we need that.