2015 Global model runs discussion

#1381 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:26 pm

Nothing here... :spam:

#1382 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:06 pm

18Z GFS at 204 hours showing a broad low in the NW Caribbean Sea:

blp · #1383 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:07 pm

18z Ensembles continue stronger. I am one who is not ready to call this a bust. I think mjo will focus the energy in that region. I just think the GFS was too fast on the previous runs.

#1384 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 7:11 pm

You beat me too it. Here is the MSLP view. That is some serious support from the ensembles most of which send this NE from the NW Caribbean:

#1385 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 11:03 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: You beat me too it. Here is the MSLP view. That is some serious support from the ensembles most of which send this NE from the NW Caribbean:

using the ensembles only for the mean, especially in a genesis case, is an awful misuse of them. Use them for the probabilities

Hurricaneman · #1386 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:14 am

0zGFS has a south Florida landfall at 288hrs with a 1001 low while its too far out to get an accurate feel it starts development around 6 days so that is not so out of range and makes development in the Caribbean a distinct possiblity

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#1387 Postby **LarryWx** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 12:17 am

1) Related to the probabilities this 18Z GEFS run is implying at hour 240, I count a respectable 12 of the ~20 members having a 1005 or stronger low in that vicinity then.

2) However, the 18Z para-GEFS has only a couple of members with a 1005 low or stronger at hour 240.

3) As stated in the HM post above this, the 0Z GFS has a S FL TS hit (~1001-1000 mb) on 10/20-1. So, it is back to the older runs' timing on this run. That's rather significant imo. Keep in mind that long term climo for mid Oct. W. Caribbean geneses strongly favors this kind of track over a track westward toward Central America/MX , meaning this kind of track into FL is quite believable IF a TC were to actually form in the Caribbean west of 80W.

4) However, the 0Z GEFS has only moderate/less robust support than the 18Z GEFS had (fewer members) and the 0Z Euro has pretty much nada.

#1388 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:47 am

06Z GFS is much stronger with the NW Caribbean System

#1389 Postby **NDG** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:56 am

Oh boy, another event of the GFS vs the ECMWF.

#1390 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:11 am

More like the Gfs vs every other model because none of the others show any development at all lol poor Gfs if its wrong again

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#1391 Postby **crownweather** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:11 am

gatorcane wrote:06Z GFS is much stronger with the NW Caribbean System

I'm siding with the idea that the GFS is crying wolf with the west Carib potential development. The big reason why is that the GFS is notorious for spinning up spurious cyclones in the Caribbean late in the season and as others have mentioned we all were burned badly last year at this very same time with a very similar forecast setup by the GFS.

My only reservation with this is that the MJO is going into Phase 2 which tends to favor Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical development. So, could the GFS model be correct and be out forecasting the Euro with TC genesis. It's possible, but at this point I'm extremely skeptical of the GFS model forecast.

caneman · #1392 Postby **caneman** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:16 am

Arent the Cmc and ukmet showing development as well?

#1393 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:17 am

GFS has been bringing in the timeframe. Looks like development commences in about one week now.

#1394 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:18 am

caneman wrote:Arent the Cmc and ukmet showing development as well?

Cmc brings a weak low into the Epac form the Carribean and Ukmet has a weak low in the SW Caribbean that eventually dies off

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caneman · #1395 Postby **caneman** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:24 am

It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

#1396 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:50 am

crownweather wrote:
gatorcane wrote:06Z GFS is much stronger with the NW Caribbean System

I'm siding with the idea that the GFS is crying wolf with the west Carib potential development. The big reason why is that the GFS is notorious for spinning up spurious cyclones in the Caribbean late in the season and as others have mentioned we all were burned badly last year at this very same time with a very similar forecast setup by the GFS.

My only reservation with this is that the MJO is going into Phase 2 which tends to favor Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico tropical development. So, could the GFS model be correct and be out forecasting the Euro with TC genesis. It's possible, but at this point I'm extremely skeptical of the GFS model forecast.

There is no MJO. Rather, the El Nino standing wave pattern is moving from 160W to 90W.

#1397 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:51 am

caneman wrote:It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

#1398 Postby **Blown Away** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 7:52 am

gatorcane wrote:GFS has been bringing in the timeframe. Looks like development commences in about one week now.

Gator, can you post the link?

blp · #1399 Postby **blp** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:09 am

Right now the GFS, FIM, GOES 5 have been solidly behind development for several days. Only the GFS is considered reliable from that group so interpret that as you wish. I don't know if the FIM and GOES5 use the GFS data for certain things which could skew the outcome. So one could argue that the GFS is not completely alone this time.

What I see is that in about 5-7 days we will see activity pickup on both the EPAC side and the SW Carribbean due to the MJO moving in. All the models have some sort of vorticity developing. The GFS, FIM, GOES5 develop vorticity further north that stays over water into the SW Carribean while the Euro has vorticity but it stays over land in C. America and is too weak to develop. The CMC shows the vorticity into the EPAC and develops it.

We are also looking at forecasts past 7 days and we all know how reliable that has been this season.

blp · #1400 Postby **blp** » Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:14 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
caneman wrote:It's not exactly like the Euro is any good on developing systems, so the fact that other models are showing some development, I'll just wait and see. Just because euro isn't showing anything doesn't really mean anything either as they many times miss the boat.

ECMWF almost never misses the boat. It's spawned almost every TC that has formed worldwide this year.

I think Pro Met Alyono would disagree with that statement

I think the models have been below average this year. I don't think you can use "almost never misses" with any model this year.