ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

No changes to the numbers on this week's update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

No changes to the numbers on this week's update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

3.4 remained at 1.1C, all other regions warmed by 0.1C,

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wouldn't this cancel out a lot of the effects of the nino for the Atlantic? You know, the record warmth over the Atlantic would cause rising motion and higher instability over the basin. This could make this year active for the Atlantic.

Global warming could cause some interesting stuff.

It's more than just that. The Atlantic isn't the only region experiencing abnormally warm waters. Many of the oceans are, the WPAC warm pool has been at record levels for years, does that yank from Atlantic warmth and rising motion? Does forcing then separate to many places, if so how does that change the circulations? So is the Indian Ocean and so on...with many mixed signals, we just have a hard time predicting what's going to happen because they don't happen like they do in the past.

My only logical conclusion on why the entire earth is above normal in temperatures compared to the past few years is something to do with the Tonga Volcano that spewed out so much water vapor.

Increased water vapor increases the moisture capacity, which allows for higher temperatures, higher humidity, and more (and stronger) storms

I would think adding humidity/moisture would lower the temperature, but I believe much of the affect if one at all, will come from adding moisture into upper layers of the atmosphere.


In response to Ntx, I kind of agree with you. This is a very large transition for the pacific. Going from la nina to a strong el nino is a big transition and it is taking its time to "couple." I believe much of the issue remains with how warm the WPAC remains, but that takes time. It is going from record heat, as you stated, to which will soon be below normal temps. For the atmosphere to couple, the WPAC needs to cool down and lets see how these predicted typhoons affect the WPAC region.
Im no expert on this, and there are many dynamics and variables at play but while the EPAC is much warmer than normal, have to remember that the WPAC is still the warmest water overall and in theory should provide the most vertical motion. Until it is below normal, typical with El nino, I dont think we will see the coupling we are expecting with El nino.



Again, no expert and open for correction and being educated even more on this subject.

[Iceresistance]

30-Day SOI back in the negatives, daily SOI now in the -30s.

[LarryWx]

30-Day SOI back in the negatives, daily SOI now in the -30s.

These are the two most -SOI days in two months. I'm expecting a pretty sharp rise from here to possible modest +SOIs 7/30-31. July should end up in the -3 to -4 range for the month as a whole.

[Kingarabian]

+SOI had a big effect on the subsurface. Moderate upwelling KW in the CPAC pushing east.

[LarryWx]

+SOI had a big effect on the subsurface. Moderate upwelling KW in the CPAC pushing east.

Indeed. The OHC plunged from a weekly peak so far of ~+1.30 to +1.35 in mid June down to only ~+0.90 in mid July! But there's still several months of time left for it to recover and go to new highs for this El Niño. If it doesn't, getting to a strong ONI peak may be tough and it may peak only as moderate.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1684138561145131008

[Ntxw]

Should see a rise in 3.4 this coming update. Maybe slight decrease in Nino 1.2 and 3.



Reanalysis shows signs that rising motion is shifting out of the MC/WPAC (Equatorial) and emerging out into the Pacific. More El Nino-like responses should become more evident, alongside the coming NHEM Fall where natural/seasonal variations tends to favor the growing ENSO state.

The North Pacific near the Aleutians has been a strong holdout for months with La-Nina-y ridging around the Aleutians, thus not allowing the PDO shift to be drastic, but that is forecast to change with an Aleutian trough to replace and couple.

[LarryWx]

Should see a rise in 3.4 this coming update. Maybe slight decrease in Nino 1.2 and 3.

Based on OISST dailies so far this week, the 3.4 region should warm to +1.2 on this Monday's release.

[LarryWx]

 In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today's report would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3+4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

[Ntxw]

 In today's release, Nino 1+2 fell rather sharply from +3.5 in the prior one to +3.0. The daily OISST graph suggested today's report would show +3.0. That same graph is suggesting the sharp fall has ceased at least for now as the lowest day was six days ago at +2.9 and yesterday's was back up some to +3.0. Nino 3+4 rose as expected per the OISST graph from +1.1 to +1.2. Regions 3 (+1.7) and 4 (+0.8) were not surprisingly unchanged.

If we consider current slowing of trades, the next week or two should see a rise in 3.4. That means by the second half of August we would be sitting anywhere from 1.3C-1.6C. I'll go conservative and guess 1.4C by Aug 21st update.

The subsurface is showing less sloping between west and east. Depths ~50m and up 1C has progressed pretty far west now to the dateline. CFSv2 has ~2C reaching as far west as 160W which would cover a large portion of the 3.4 box.


MJJ ONI could be 0.8C.

[cycloneye]

This is big news as the Aussies have not declared El Niño officially as they are still on alert status. Read their outlook.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to continue at least through to the end of the year. In the atmosphere, however, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns mostly continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses winter–spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model forecasts suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring. A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia, and can exacerbate the drying influence from El Niño.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, with most climate models surveyed indicating no significant strengthening of the MJO in the next two weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[ChrisH-UK]

This is big news as the Aussies have not declared El Niño officially as they are still on alert status. Read their outlook.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to continue at least through to the end of the year. In the atmosphere, however, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns mostly continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses winter–spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model forecasts suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring. A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia, and can exacerbate the drying influence from El Niño.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, with most climate models surveyed indicating no significant strengthening of the MJO in the next two weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

https://i.imgur.com/oxxXRCB.png

I would agree with them the state of things is more like a neutral year mainly due to the lack of a large temperature difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic both of which are hot and not the usual hot/cold.

[LarryWx]

This is big news as the Aussies have not declared El Niño officially as they are still on alert status. Read their outlook.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds, with climate models indicating this is likely to continue at least through to the end of the year. In the atmosphere, however, wind, cloud and broad-scale pressure patterns mostly continue to reflect neutral ENSO conditions. This means the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have yet to become fully coupled, as occurs during El Niño events. El Niño typically suppresses winter–spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Climate model forecasts suggest a positive IOD is likely to develop in late winter or early spring. A positive IOD typically decreases winter–spring rainfall for much of Australia, and can exacerbate the drying influence from El Niño.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak, with most climate models surveyed indicating no significant strengthening of the MJO in the next two weeks.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

https://i.imgur.com/oxxXRCB.png

I would agree with them the state of things is more like a neutral year mainly due to the lack of a large temperature difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic both of which are hot and not the usual hot/cold.

The SOI has averaged neutral (-3) for the last two months following the strongly -SOI of May.

[Ntxw]

It's been a mixed bag with the atmosphere and June/July didn't live up to May. It's going to take some time to couple but eventually it will. Moderate event already ongoing and still shaking the PDO off but it's taken some hits lately. It's lag from prolonged -ENSO, but it will happen. As the weeks and months go on more and more of the responses will reflect El Nino.

It would be a different story if we were looking at a weak event.

[LarryWx]

It's been a mixed bag with the atmosphere and June/July didn't live up to May. It's going to take some time to couple but eventually it will. Moderate event already ongoing and still shaking the PDO off but it's taken some hits lately. It's lag from prolonged -ENSO, but it will happen. As the weeks and months go on more and more of the responses will reflect El Nino.

It would be a different story if we were looking at a weak event.

Meanwhile, the OHC was still dropping in the new update and was below +0.75 in late July per the latest graph after having peaked above +1.3 in mid June though it still has plenty of time to potentially come back up to new highs later this year

[Ntxw]

It's been a mixed bag with the atmosphere and June/July didn't live up to May. It's going to take some time to couple but eventually it will. Moderate event already ongoing and still shaking the PDO off but it's taken some hits lately. It's lag from prolonged -ENSO, but it will happen. As the weeks and months go on more and more of the responses will reflect El Nino.

It would be a different story if we were looking at a weak event.

Meanwhile, the OHC was still dropping in the new update and was below +0.75 in late July per the latest graph after having peaked above +1.3 in mid June though it still has plenty of time to potentially come back up to new highs later this year

It should weaken some more through August especially below 100m and west of 160W until climo changes in Sept.

[LarryWx]

Whereas a week ago Nino 1+2 fell to +2.9 from a +3.5 peak six days earlier, it has risen back to +3.3 today (OISST).

[wxman57]

I believe that El Nino conditions must persist for a full 3 months before an El Nino is declared.