ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

SOI dailys are going to be neutral or just slightly negative for the next 7 days. The bigger negatives from the end of June are running out so we could see the 30 day SOI climb further.

[Kingarabian]

Latest CFSv2 shows the monthlies now going past 2C+ following a pretty substantial warming in Aug-Sep. A bit skeptical, but momentum is there oceanic-wise. What explains the poor SOI showing?

I think Dean_175 explained it pretty well a few pages back. Poor SOI showing is due to the poor atmosphere coupling. But to summarize a few things, the lack of WWBs and above average trades over the CPAC signals less than normal rising motion near the DL which is needed for a -SOI. Very warm Atlantic is also stealing some of that rising motion as well.

[LarryWx]

 Today's OISST anomaly increase in Nino 3.4 of 0.76 (to +1.160) is the largest daily increase since way back on June 6th. Also, today's anomaly is the highest so far this year in regions 3.4, 3, and 1+2.

[LarryWx]

Latest CFSv2 shows the monthlies now going past 2C+ following a pretty substantial warming in Aug-Sep. A bit skeptical, but momentum is there oceanic-wise. What explains the poor SOI showing?

Just 11 days ago, the CFS 40 run mean was only ~+1.75. The latest is way up at ~+2.07!

[Ntxw]

 Today's OISST anomaly increase in Nino 3.4 of 0.76 (to +1.160) is the largest daily increase since way back on June 6th. Also, today's anomaly is the highest so far this year in regions 3.4, 3, and 1+2.

Per the TAO buoys it looks to remain the same, thus I'm going to guess another 1C reading tomorrow. The eastern regions continue to warm. This is about as east-based an El Nino as you can get, at its current state.

So far continues the theme not happening the same way we are accustomed to the past few decades with eq-cpac wind action. Different breed of El Nino going on.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think Dean_175 explained it pretty well a few pages back. Poor SOI showing is due to the poor atmosphere coupling. But to summarize a few things, the lack of WWBs and above average trades over the CPAC signals less than normal rising motion near the DL which is needed for a -SOI. Very warm Atlantic is also stealing some of that rising motion as well.

Seeing rather unimpressive atmospheric indices and responses firsthand. While it may be early, we've had at least three different flooding events in my area when El Niño is supposed to bring strongly below-average rainfall. Weather patterns in many other places may also defy traditional patterns. It doesn't "feel" like an El Niño, but it "looks" like one because of the strong oceanic signature. It's worth noting that even as this strengthens --- the models show that precip patterns stay the same: wet all over the Philippines.

It's kinda puzzling that despite expectations of no/weak WWBs and an overall underwhelming response, the ocean seems to have weathered it well and momentum is now perhaps clearly favoring a moderate event at least. This could probably be a new breed of El Niño, no?

[cycloneye]

The weekly update by CPC has niño 3.4 up to +1.1C, Niño 3 up to +1.6C and Niño 1+2 up to 3.4C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

The weekly update by CPC has niño 3.4 up to +1.1C, Niño 3 up to +1.6C and Niño 1+2 up to 3.4C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Being that we are well within moderate now with enough weeks, a strong peak seems probable. Unless no warming occurs the rest of the way, which is very unlikely.

I've been using proxy of Nino 3 as precursor to 3.4 roughly a month later +/- 0.1C seems to get in the ballpark. Sometime mid August we should be approaching ~1.5C on the weeklies.

[gatorcane]

Doesn’t surprise me the Nino numbers are increasing. Just taking a look at this map says it all with deep reds expanding west over the equator south of Mexico:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/1681302825765343233

[Sciencerocks]

Wouldn't this cancel out a lot of the effects of the nino for the Atlantic? You know, the record warmth over the Atlantic would cause rising motion and higher instability over the basin. This could make this year active for the Atlantic.

Global warming could cause some interesting stuff.

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't this cancel out a lot of the effects of the nino for the Atlantic? You know, the record warmth over the Atlantic would cause rising motion and higher instability over the basin. This could make this year active for the Atlantic.

Global warming could cause some interesting stuff.

It's more than just that. The Atlantic isn't the only region experiencing abnormally warm waters. Many of the oceans are, the WPAC warm pool has been at record levels for years, does that yank from Atlantic warmth and rising motion? Does forcing then separate to many places, if so how does that change the circulations? So is the Indian Ocean and so on...with many mixed signals, we just have a hard time predicting what's going to happen because they don't happen like they do in the past.

[Iceresistance]

Wouldn't this cancel out a lot of the effects of the nino for the Atlantic? You know, the record warmth over the Atlantic would cause rising motion and higher instability over the basin. This could make this year active for the Atlantic.

Global warming could cause some interesting stuff.

It's more than just that. The Atlantic isn't the only region experiencing abnormally warm waters. Many of the oceans are, the WPAC warm pool has been at record levels for years, does that yank from Atlantic warmth and rising motion? Does forcing then separate to many places, if so how does that change the circulations? So is the Indian Ocean and so on...with many mixed signals, we just have a hard time predicting what's going to happen because they don't happen like they do in the past.

My only logical conclusion on why the entire earth is above normal in temperatures compared to the past few years is something to do with the Tonga Volcano that spewed out so much water vapor.

Increased water vapor increases the moisture capacity, which allows for higher temperatures, higher humidity, and more (and stronger) storms

[Ntxw]

Barring some weird reversal, the next update should see another bump upward. The east continues to warm with the latest buoys.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1681813905675284480

@WxPatel
As the MJO slowly moves eastward through the Pacific, it will induce a significant WWB across all ENSO regions starting late month. Weak trades will promote warming that will likely push this El Niño event into the strong tier (> 1.5C for ENSO 3.4).

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1681813905675284480

@WxPatel
As the MJO slowly moves eastward through the Pacific, it will induce a significant WWB across all ENSO regions starting late month. Weak trades will promote warming that will likely push this El Niño event into the strong tier (> 1.5C for ENSO 3.4).

Not sure why the 850mb wind anomalies from 15N to 15S keep being used for ENSO.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a strong IO WWB.

[Iceresistance]

9-Day streak of -SOI is finally starting to bring down the 30-Day SOI values.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AgroClim/status/1682370005994819584



 https://twitter.com/AgroClim/status/1682370008431697920

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/AgroClim/status/1682370005994819584?t=WSorHZZiXE1n-4n_ICYMzQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/AgroClim/status/1682370008431697920?t=fco_quIBTg4Dm1Kw4gGd3w&s=19

Stabilizing or equalizing? No way could that kind of rising air over the Epac result in a "stabilizing affect" (at least not for that region). Naturally I would think that this kind of lifting air would go hand in hand with lower SSP's, but I havn't been really paying attention whether EPac surface pressures have been anomalously high thus far or not.