ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[hurricane2025]

It’s here but it’s still transitioning to it it’s not going to switch on a dime

[Ntxw]

Per buoys, should be back to 1C next update, outside chance of 1.1C.

[cycloneye]

Wow, big jump at Niño 1+2 now at +3.3C while Niño 3.4 is up to +1.0C.



Whole update at link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Wow, big jump at Niño 1+2 now at +3.3C while Niño 3.4 is up to +1.0C.

https://i.imgur.com/pSMtBwK.png

Whole update at link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

That's the first 3+ reading at Nino 1+2 since 1997. This thing is so heavily leaned eastward.

[cycloneye]

There is 1 in 5 chance to have Strong El Niño.

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

In June, a weak El Niño was associated with above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Nearly all of the weekly Niño indices were at or in excess of +1.0°C: Niño-3.4 was +1.0°C, Niño-3 was +1.5°C, and Niño1+2 was +3.3°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased compared to May [Fig. 3], with positive anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. In contrast, the tropical atmospheric anomalies were weaker compared to the oceanic anomalies. For the June monthly average, low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western Pacific and westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection and rainfall were enhanced around the International Date Line and were weakly suppressed in the vicinity of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained negative (0.5 standard deviations below average), while the traditional, station-based SOI was near zero. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weak El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

[NotSparta]

There is 1 in 5 chance to have Strong El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Looking at what they said, it looks like ~50% chance of a strong El Niño and 1 in 5 chance of a super Niño

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Update shows they're expecting an 82% chance of a moderate El Niño, 52% of a strong event, and a 1-in-5 chance for a "historically strong" one. Not quite a bust perhaps.

Personally, I feel like we're getting a 2009-like event intensity wise, but clearly more eastern-based. It may be a tad stronger.

Expecting a relatively active northern hemisphere as well with it being centered on the West Pacific and maybe a late-bloomer EPac.

[cycloneye]

There is 1 in 5 chance to have Strong El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). An event that becomes "historically strong" (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0°C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Looking at what they said, it looks like ~50% chance of a strong El Niño and 1 in 5 chance of a super Niño

Fixed the title headline.

[cycloneye]

The Enso Blog has more detalis about this new forecast.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the CPC agrees with most of us on here. Chances for a moderate El Nino are much higher than a strong one.

[LarryWx]

Looks like the CPC agrees with most of us on here. Chances for a moderate El Nino are much higher than a strong one.

That's not the way I'm interpreting what they're saying. I'm seeing an 82% chance for moderate OR STRONGER and a 52% chance for strong or stronger. So, that implies a 30% chance of a moderate peak, a 32% chance for a strong peak and a 20% chance for a super peak. There's an 18% chance of a peak of +1.0 or lower.

[cycloneye]

From the Enso Blog:

How about potential strength? El Niño’s maximum Niño-3.4 Index values, aka its peak, almost always occur in November­–January. We estimate about an 80% chance that this El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C. These thresholds are, respectively, how we categorize moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño events, but this is just an informal classification. Generally, the stronger the sea surface temperature anomaly, the stronger the atmospheric response, and the more consistent the pattern of El Niño’s remote impacts on rain and temperature patterns. However, as I mentioned above, the warm global ocean may complicate this relationship.

[LarryWx]

From the Enso Blog:

How about potential strength? El Niño’s maximum Niño-3.4 Index values, aka its peak, almost always occur in November­–January. We estimate about an 80% chance that this El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C. These thresholds are, respectively, how we categorize moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño events, but this is just an informal classification. Generally, the stronger the sea surface temperature anomaly, the stronger the atmospheric response, and the more consistent the pattern of El Niño’s remote impacts on rain and temperature patterns. However, as I mentioned above, the warm global ocean may complicate this relationship.

Based on this, they're implying a 30% chance for a moderate peak, a 30% chance for a strong peak, and a 20% chance for a super peak. Also, they're implying a 20% chance for a weak El Niño peak.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the CPC agrees with most of us on here. Chances for a moderate El Nino are much higher than a strong one.

That's not the way I'm interpreting what they're saying. I'm seeing an 82% chance for moderate OR STRONGER and a 52% chance for strong or stronger. So, that implies a 30% chance of a moderate peak, a 32% chance for a strong peak and a 20% chance for a super peak. There's an 18% chance of a peak of +1.0 or lower.

Ah I missed the "or stronger" part.

[Kingarabian]

From the Enso Blog:

How about potential strength? El Niño’s maximum Niño-3.4 Index values, aka its peak, almost always occur in November­–January. We estimate about an 80% chance that this El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C. These thresholds are, respectively, how we categorize moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño events, but this is just an informal classification. Generally, the stronger the sea surface temperature anomaly, the stronger the atmospheric response, and the more consistent the pattern of El Niño’s remote impacts on rain and temperature patterns. However, as I mentioned above, the warm global ocean may complicate this relationship.

Based on this, they're implying a 30% chance for a moderate peak, a 30% chance for a strong peak, and a 20% chance for a super peak. Also, they're implying a 20% chance for a weak El Niño peak.

So basically a 50% total chance of this not ending up stronger or super.

[LarryWx]

From the Enso Blog:

How about potential strength? El Niño’s maximum Niño-3.4 Index values, aka its peak, almost always occur in November­–January. We estimate about an 80% chance that this El Niño will peak with a maximum Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.0 °C, a 50% chance of at least 1.5 °C, and a 20% chance of above 2.0 °C. These thresholds are, respectively, how we categorize moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño events, but this is just an informal classification. Generally, the stronger the sea surface temperature anomaly, the stronger the atmospheric response, and the more consistent the pattern of El Niño’s remote impacts on rain and temperature patterns. However, as I mentioned above, the warm global ocean may complicate this relationship.

Based on this, they're implying a 30% chance for a moderate peak, a 30% chance for a strong peak, and a 20% chance for a super peak. Also, they're implying a 20% chance for a weak El Niño peak.

So basically a 50% total chance of this not ending up stronger or super.

I think that the 18-20% chance for a weak peak is much too high as we're already near +1.0. A weak ONI peak would require essentially no warming from this point on. I see that as having hardly any chance. That would require even the weakest of the 17 dynamic models to end up slightly too warm and over 80% of the dynamic to bust too warm by 0.4+ and over half of them to bust too warm by 0.9+. The only models calling for not reaching a moderate peak are 4 of the 8 statistical models:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

[JetFuel_SE]

Based on this, they're implying a 30% chance for a moderate peak, a 30% chance for a strong peak, and a 20% chance for a super peak. Also, they're implying a 20% chance for a weak El Niño peak.

So basically a 50% total chance of this not ending up stronger or super.

I think that the 18-20% chance for a weak peak is much too high as we're already near +1.0. A weak ONI peak would require essentially no warming from this point on. I see that as having hardly any chance. That would require even the weakest of the 17 dynamic models to end up slightly too warm and over 80% of the dynamic to bust too warm by 0.4+ and over half of them to bust too warm by 0.9+. The only models calling for not reaching a moderate peak are 4 of the 8 statistical models:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

And the BoM model is still smoking the good stuff.
>2.5 ain't happening lmao.

[Iceresistance]

So basically a 50% total chance of this not ending up stronger or super.

I think that the 18-20% chance for a weak peak is much too high as we're already near +1.0. A weak ONI peak would require essentially no warming from this point on. I see that as having hardly any chance. That would require even the weakest of the 17 dynamic models to end up slightly too warm and over 80% of the dynamic to bust too warm by 0.4+ and over half of them to bust too warm by 0.9+. The only models calling for not reaching a moderate peak are 4 of the 8 statistical models:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

And the BoM model is still smoking the good stuff.
>2.5 ain't happening lmao.

Yeah with the current SOI Index, unless it decides to run for a -50 or lower, I don't see a Super El Nino this year.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think that the 18-20% chance for a weak peak is much too high as we're already near +1.0. A weak ONI peak would require essentially no warming from this point on. I see that as having hardly any chance. That would require even the weakest of the 17 dynamic models to end up slightly too warm and over 80% of the dynamic to bust too warm by 0.4+ and over half of them to bust too warm by 0.9+. The only models calling for not reaching a moderate peak are 4 of the 8 statistical models:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -sst_table

And the BoM model is still smoking the good stuff.
>2.5 ain't happening lmao.

Yeah with the current SOI Index, unless it decides to run for a -50 or lower, I don't see a Super El Nino this year.

The SOI has been positive...sometimes strongly so every day this month. That's not going to get you a strong El Nino (it was barely negative today like -1.6 first time since June 30th)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest CFSv2 shows the monthlies now going past 2C+ following a pretty substantial warming in Aug-Sep. A bit skeptical, but momentum is there oceanic-wise. What explains the poor SOI showing?