2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cachondo23]

Very weird tracks from the GFS. Latest has it going west of Guadeloupe then completely north through Virgin Islands.

[LarryWx]

Still a good ensemble signal in the west Carib from the GFS and Canadian at the end of their runs. However the GFS and to a lesser extent the Canadian has consistently shown a signal there often all season long so I dont think its anything to worry about for now.

The wave the models show possibly developing and heading towards PR is something we may need to keep an eye on...interesting enough the ICON has been the southern outlier...it will be interesting to see what it does when its forecast range takes it it PR's longitude.

Along with Happy Hour Icon, the Happy Hour GFS, like the 12Z, 0Z, and 5 runs before, has this. It hits Virgin Islands with a cat 1 H 10/22-3.

Edit: I just looked at 12Z UKMET maps. Although the text already told me there was no TC from this, the H5 vorticity and precip maps are closer to a TCG than prior runs. If this trend continues, the often genesis shy UKMET may have an actual TCG from this within the next run or two.

[zhukm29]

Interesting...

[Zonacane]

Favorable background state means we are probably going to get a storm, without anything popping up in the EPAC anything in the Caribbean won’t have competition.

[LarryWx]

Still a good ensemble signal in the west Carib from the GFS and Canadian at the end of their runs. However the GFS and to a lesser extent the Canadian has consistently shown a signal there often all season long so I dont think its anything to worry about for now.

The wave the models show possibly developing and heading towards PR is something we may need to keep an eye on...interesting enough the ICON has been the southern outlier...it will be interesting to see what it does when its forecast range takes it it PR's longitude.

Along with Happy Hour Icon, the Happy Hour GFS, like the 12Z, 0Z, and 5 runs before, has this. It hits Virgin Islands with a cat 1 H 10/22-3.

Edit: I just looked at 12Z UKMET maps. Although the text already told me there was no TC from this, the H5 vorticity and precip maps are closer to a TCG than prior runs. If this trend continues, the often genesis shy UKMET may have an actual TCG from this within the next run or two.

Sure enough, the 0Z UKMET has this as a TD going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34
——————

Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.

[Fancy1002]

Still a good ensemble signal in the west Carib from the GFS and Canadian at the end of their runs. However the GFS and to a lesser extent the Canadian has consistently shown a signal there often all season long so I dont think its anything to worry about for now.

The wave the models show possibly developing and heading towards PR is something we may need to keep an eye on...interesting enough the ICON has been the southern outlier...it will be interesting to see what it does when its forecast range takes it it PR's longitude.

Along with Happy Hour Icon, the Happy Hour GFS, like the 12Z, 0Z, and 5 runs before, has this. It hits Virgin Islands with a cat 1 H 10/22-3.

Edit: I just looked at 12Z UKMET maps. Although the text already told me there was no TC from this, the H5 vorticity and precip maps are closer to a TCG than prior runs. If this trend continues, the often genesis shy UKMET may have an actual TCG from this within the next run or two.

Sure enough, the 0Z UKMET has this as a TD going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32
0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34
——————

Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.

So the UK is following the route where it gets stronger in the western Caribbean and heads north northeast into either Cuba or Florida.

[Fancy1002]

Looks like we will either have a little to nothing, or a west carb monster on this gfs run. It could start heading straight north from its current position when I’m posting. Yep, north again

[LarryWx]

Thanks, Fancy.
The 0Z CMC has a track that resembles none on record that have actually occurred in Oct or later with a TS very early (hour 90/Thu way east at 34W) that then beelines WNW to 68W just N of PR at 240! I’ll put this in the extremely unlikely track category (though not impossible) based mainly on many decades of tracks from the satellite era. This is like an August track! The further south and much later developing Icon, UKMET, and especially GFS are much more believable.
Euro is next.