Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[ConvergenceZone]

As someone pointed out earlier is that this system will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. While that's bad for preparation, it should be over just a few short hours after it begins, thus a short duration event. Also, will have much less time to get really strong.

Can you define "lightning speed"...I'm not seeing that. I do see plenty of solutions...some of which are very strong. If a system organizes it can intensify very rapidly if the stars align. OHC in the Gulf and Caribbean is record highs for this date per McNoldy's data. Otis went from a cat 1 to a 5 in 12 hours last year with similar rocket fuel. Explosive development should be a consideration even if that outcome isn't most likely.

I just go by where the models are showing the system every 6 hours. Also remember this system initially didn't suppose to hit land until next Sunday or Monday and now it's showing late Thursday and Friday. That's quite a difference in speed. I mean to get from where it is right now to the north gulf coast in only 4 and 1/2 to 5 days can only happen with a very quick mover. And that's also probably why the other models are keeping it much weaker than the GFS.

[CrazyC83]

It's amazing that it isn't even an Invest yet and now we're getting concerned about a potential hurricane hit by the end of the week...things can move fast in the tropics.

[Blown Away]

[jlauderdal]

They went from 10 to 40 for 48 hour development odds. For an agency that likes to step a dime at a time...stacking 3 in one forecast cycle tells a lot.

They are like The Fed, playing some catch up.

[Pipelines182]

That 12z GFS run is absolutely horrifying. For that to happen we'd need to have a TS by tomorrow though.

Not sure that will happen based on current organization.

https://i.imgur.com/HRYczM0.jpeg

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

[Steve]

So EC has the landfall at Gulf County @ 981 7pm Thursday.

ICON has Bay County at 984 Friday am at 3ish in the morning.

CMC has the landfall 989 in Gulf County Thursday afternoon.

UKMET high 980s Bay/Gulf County 4-5am Friday morning

GFS not like the others.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

Don't forget Otis too. In the tropics, intensity prediction is still a big mystery that we are trying to understand. And the behaviors of storms in recent years have made me think more along the lines of "always prepare for a storm stronger than forecast"

[Stormlover70]

They went from 10 to 40 for 48 hour development odds. For an agency that likes to step a dime at a time...stacking 3 in one forecast cycle tells a lot.

They are like The Fed, playing some catch up.

politics? Pretty sure they know what they are doing.

[xironman]

The area around that tower blowing up at the border looks as good a place as any to me

[gulf701]

I agree with " FLpanhandle91" on the impacts that this potential storm should it develop into a Michael 2018 2.0. Having road out Michael about 10 mi from the center and seeing the destruction that a Cat 4/5 can cause is very sobering. If our area is impacted, I pray that it remain TS status. Bad enough as recovery is still ongoing since 2018, but less impacts than major hurricane.

[mcheer23]

Should have 97L pretty soon.

[StPeteMike]

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

Yep. GoM had some shear near the coast a few days out. I think it was day it was designated as a tropical storm that they started seeing the environmental conditions improving greatly and started bumping the intensity.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

Oh sure, but there's also a reason cat 5 landfalls are so rare. Also, just remember the shear that's forecasted in the gulf, which is why the other models(except the GFS) probably aren't intensifying it near as much. Remember, hot water temps are only one piece of the puzzle. EVERYTHING has to come together to get a rapidly intensifying system.

[psyclone]

I agree with " FLpanhandle91" on the impacts that this potential storm should it develop into a Michael 2018 2.0. Having road out Michael about 10 mi from the center and seeing the destruction that a Cat 4/5 can cause is very sobering. If our area is impacted, I pray that it remain TS status. Bad enough as recovery is still ongoing since 2018, but less impacts than major hurricane.

It sure looks like the Tallahassee CWA is the prime target at this point. Hopefully a weaker system but there is high end potential. I feel like Bay to Wakulla is probably the peak hot zone as of now

[MarioProtVI]

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

Yep. GoM had some shear near the coast a few days out. I think it was day it was designated as a tropical storm that they started seeing the environmental conditions improving greatly and started bumping the intensity.

Michael’s first forecast had a 60 kt peak at landfall. Obviously that was grossly underestimated and ended up being 80 kt too low.

[psyclone]

At a minimum we need some fresh confusing nomenclature: potential tropical invest 97L. Come on and pull dat trigger!

[ConvergenceZone]

Gotta disagree again, it happens often enough and it already happened this year. Beryl went from TS to C5 in 42 hours.

IIRC Michael was forecast to make landfall as a C2/C3 48 hours out and we all saw what happened. I see no reason why this scenario is any different. Is a C5 probable? No, is it possible and should people be aware of that? Yes!

Yep. GoM had some shear near the coast a few days out. I think it was day it was designated as a tropical storm that they started seeing the environmental conditions improving greatly and started bumping the intensity.

Michael’s first forecast had a 60 kt peak at landfall. Obviously that was grossly underestimated and ended up being 80 kt too low.

Never use Michael as a comparison to other storms. In my opinion, Michael was a one off anomaly. A quirk if you will

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very consistent trend for earlier genesis on the GFS, resulting in much more consolidation and strengthening.

This is going to be a system where every extra hour of time over water works in the storm's favor.

[SFLcane]

[wx98]

WPC QPF indicates a possible/probable Panama City area landfall Thursday afternoon/evening.