2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Hammy]

I asked ventrice on Twitter on why there’s isn’t much on the models despite mjo moving and a strong kelvin wave and this was his response below..

models will miss the convective enhancement to pre-existing waves and will struggle with the convective triggering of news waves over Africa.

Are they essentially behaving as if the current base state will continue even if it's about to change? Because I noticed as the more favorable conditions were about to exit earlier, the models continued a high level of activity well beyond that.

[SFLcane]

I think it’s only a matter of time strong mjo pulse coupled with a powerful kelvin wave activity will start showing up on the models. Quite concerned about the Caribbean if anything gets going it could get pulled north with all this trofiness in place as of late. Could get real busy soon!

[cycloneye]

SFLcane,already GFS and Euro are sniffing long range stuff.

[psyclone]

We are setting the stage for October to do make up work for August. I've long been concerned about a late season NW Caribbean whopper. We had similar warning pings weeks in advance of Michael last year.. The coming favorable conditions add a tailwind to an already dicey climo for the region.

[Hurricaneman]

By mid week the models may really start to catch on to these conditions but right now it seems the models may be starting to see these conditions but not fully yet

[gatorcane]

I agree with all of you about the Western Caribbean. Think we may get as least one significant hurricane and possibly multiple systems as we head later into this month and October and even November. By the way conditions have been very favorable across the Caribbean the past couple of weeks just no waves are making it to the Western Caribbean yet. For example:

[captainbarbossa19]

As of right now, there is still plenty of energy available for tropical systems to use in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. If a wave enters this area and conditions are favorable, it could easily develop into a strong hurricane. I do not think that the season is over for this region yet. Many systems have formed in past Octobers in this region. Also, it is interesting that the Eastern Caribbean seems to be quite warm now as well.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1173457512319918080




 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1173459187264655360




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1173460168367104001

[Hurricaneman]

The MDR may get shut down by this trade wind surge but that just means if something develops it will be in the Caribbean and there’s no way out of a landfall once that happens so this trade surge may end up being bad in the long run if you don’t like landfalling hurricanes

[StruThiO]

Here's where we stand right now.

[SFLcane]

Boom! That's about as favorable an Atlantic look as you can get now just waiting for the models to pick up on this

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1173587374372208640

[CyclonicFury]

Here's where we stand right now.

https://i.imgur.com/VoZutkd.png

https://i.imgur.com/Bfz2gMu.png

Fairly close to average in most metrics. Activity should finish at least near normal, but in order to reach above normal, we would need a very active back half of the season. Late September into October appears favorable so I think 100+ ACE is still a distinct possibility.

[WeatherEmperor]

So here is something that may or may not throw a monkey wrench into the favorable conditions in the Caribbean for October. Despite Nino 3.4 currently sitting at -0.3C the CFS and Euro show the region rapidly warming to near +0.5C during the month of October. While this appears unlikely it could happen because the SOI is still el nino’ish negative. Does anybody have any maps to see if WWB’s are on the horizon to support Nino 3.4 warming like this?

What do you guys think? No big deal or something to watch as it could make October conditions in the Caribbean less favorable than we think? Maybe the CFS and Euro are messed up and just dead wrong??






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[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/1173626777119469573

[CyclonicFury]

So here is something that may or may not throw a monkey wrench into the favorable conditions in the Caribbean for October. Despite Nino 3.4 currently sitting at -0.3C the CFS and Euro show the region rapidly warming to near +0.5C during the month of October. While this appears unlikely it could happen because the SOI is still el nino’ish negative. Does anybody have any maps to see if WWB’s are on the horizon to support Nino 3.4 warming like this?

What do you guys think? No big deal or something to watch as it could make October conditions in the Caribbean less favorable than we think? Maybe the CFS and Euro are messed up and just dead wrong??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/e70e93ca9a5dfec62a69dc28f27e1168.gif

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190916/f1950393d53ccf213adbefa5e70dbe8a.png


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I'm not really buying that rapid shift back to El Nino conditions. We'll probably see some slight warming, possibly into the warm neutral range, but it shouldn't have a major effect on Caribbean shear. ECMWF has been predicting an El Nino essentially constantly for the past 5 years aside from 2016, it's garbage. And then you have the CFS, which changes its forecast every few days it seems.

[Hurricaneman]

The end of the 12zGFS run did show what seems to be something trying to form from the monsoon gyre, seems to have caught on to the MJO and if it went farther out would be genesis so I believe the first week of October will have something form in the western Caribbean given the upcoming pattern

[DestinHurricane]

Here in the panhandle, we really dont want to hear about central american gyres in october right now...

[WxEp]

The end of the 12zGFS run did show what seems to be something trying to form from the monsoon gyre, seems to have caught on to the MJO and if it went farther out would be genesis so I believe the first week of October will have something form in the western Caribbean given the upcoming pattern

Not much on the 18z GFS. A small bit of vorticity in the area. I believe the Legacy GFS showed something similar last year in October. The timeline kept getting pushed back but eventually something (unfortunately something big) did come from it. We'll have to see if the GFS shows something on future runs and if the time frame moves back as we've seen models do with the start of many potential TC's before.

[SFLcane]

Looks like there is some US ridging but W ATL weakness. This pattern though can flirt with trouble, if something gets far enough west to get under the CONUS ridge.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1173994751625969665