2015 Global model runs discussion

[Alyono]

EC has a storm hitting California next week.

Going to hold the mighty EC to this. My suspicion is that it will flip about 10 times during the next week yet will still be credited for getting this right, even though a California landfall is unrealistic given the track this is taking

Don't forget, the EC fell flat on its face with Marty when it consistently forecast it to be a strong hurricane and hit the Baja.

And lets not even go into the Erika fiasco. It has been as bad as the CMC this year. getting Joaquin right after being the first to indicate landfall does not give it much redemption in this met's eyes

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is weaker than the 12Z but still shows a broad low forming and keeps bringing in the timeframe, 240 hours show below. The 18Z NAVGEM is picking up on the same wave with something showing up in the Central Caribbean. At least the GFS has one other model showing something. Let's see if other models start to latch on or not.

18Z GFS 240 hours:


18Z NAVGEM 180 hours:

[LarryWx]

Alyono, I don't think you're crazy about any model...well at least you don't seem to like the Euro, MU, and CMC. Maybe the UKMET is ok. Also, there's always the JMA and the Korean model.

I saw the 18Z GFS with a variation on the W Caribbean genesis theme. I'm still expecting to treat this as mainly entertainment into the near future assuming no sudden Euro support. The NAVGEM is supporting it now, but that model is very unreliable to say the least.

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS ensembles continue to be quite bullish on the Western Caribbean system - about as bullish as you will see them this far out.

[northjaxpro]

Still a long ways out right now though. If this is still showing development potential in model runs within 10 days (240 hrs), I will begin to take interest.

[ronjon]

18z GFS run shows a huge monsoon gyre for 5-6 days. We getting a MJO pulse about this time?

[blp]

12 CMC may be hinting at something as well. It picks up a vorticity from energy off the wave coming from the East and tries to spin it up but does not have a deep enough trough over the US and splits the energy with the EPAC.

[Alyono]

:uarrow:
Alyono, I don't think you're crazy about any model...well at least you don't seem to like the Euro, MU, and CMC. Maybe the UKMET is ok. Also, there's always the JMA and the Korean model.

I saw the 18Z GFS with a variation on the W Caribbean genesis theme. I'm still expecting to treat this as mainly entertainment into the near future assuming no sudden Euro support. The NAVGEM is supporting it now, but that model is very unreliable to say the least.

it's that tweener resolution zone where we are too fine to properly use paramaterization schemes, but too coarse to use explicit convection

[Kingarabian]

Last year it was Alyono vs the GFS and now it's Alyono vs the Euro

[Alyono]

Last year it was Alyono vs the GFS and now it's Alyono vs the Euro

both have major issues right now. I suspect the EC will get it right first because of the 4DVAR vs 3DVAR (which is why I say Uccelleni, fix your model), AND because they will likely transition to explicit convection first.

[Yellow Evan]

Last year it was Alyono vs the GFS and now it's Alyono vs the Euro

both have major issues right now. I suspect the EC will get it right first because of the 4DVAR vs 3DVAR (which is why I say Uccelleni, fix your model), AND because they will likely transition to explicit convection first.

Are there any plans for the GFS to transition to 4DVAR?

[Kingarabian]

Well a major upgrade for the GFS is due in January which is supposed to "greatly" improve the models output.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Gfs has a Cat1 hitting south florida on the 20th it looks like. Very far out but lets see what other models show


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[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Canadian has low pressure in the SW Caribbean around 174hrs similar to the Gfs but sends it due west and crosses into the Epac.


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[Kingarabian]

00z and 06z GFS hinting @ Iniki 2.0 in the medium range. EPAC crosser into the CPAC where it develops well south west of the islands and Hawaii landfalls.

[blp]

FWIW: The 00zFIM long range really likes W. Caribbean system. I had heard a while back that it initializes using GFS data so that would explain why it tends to follow the GFS a lot. Interesting to see if that is still the case.

I still think the GFS is too fast with the evolution.

[blp]

Here is another lower tier model the GOES 5 showing development 210hrs.

[blp]

The Navgem is a little more enthusiastic than yesterday. So right now you have the GFS, FIM, GOES 5, NAVGEM, CMC with a low in the SW Carribbean. CMC has it going West into the EPAC while others have it staying in the Carribean. We are back to the same ole story as long as the Euro does not bite then this is still fantasy.

[Weatherwatcher98]

As we all know this is the Time of Year to look at the western Caribbean. Too early in the Game to call in my opinion. Watch and wait

[Alyono]

Last year it was Alyono vs the GFS and now it's Alyono vs the Euro

both have major issues right now. I suspect the EC will get it right first because of the 4DVAR vs 3DVAR (which is why I say Uccelleni, fix your model), AND because they will likely transition to explicit convection first.

Are there any plans for the GFS to transition to 4DVAR?

I am not aware of any at this time