2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Ngl, with storm after storm this year turning out to sea, it does feel somewhat odd to see some of these long-range models, especially the deepmind AI ones, showing a possible signal in the ECAR later this month. The absolute hotspot for activity this year has been the Sargasso Sea....but will this season manage to produce something noteworthy in the Caribbean or Gulf before the end? We shall see.

The last season with no TC in the Caribbean was 1997.

[Fancy1002]

12z GFS has a future MH Karen forming off the northeastern tip of the Yucatan at +168 hrs, then meandering around the western Gulf for a week+
Still hasn't actually gotten anywhere at +342 hrs in the model that's still running.

I’m pretty sure Karen will be taken by the East Coast storm in a few days so that will likely be L

Funnily enough neither of those 2 storms took the Karen name and instead that one way north east in the Atlantic did

Don’t rub it in lol

[Cachondo23]

Looks like CV season won’t end any time soon?

[Teban54]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/k52MDHvQ/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh66-384.gif

This is the wave that follows the current mdr AOI. This maybe a legit long term signal given there's pretty strong eps support as well, gotta see if it lasts.

[AnnularCane]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/k52MDHvQ/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh66-384.gif

Dance party in the Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

Even though 6z GFS no longer has the 907 mb en route to Florida, it's still developing the wave, just that it recurves and hits Hispaniola instead as a 949 mb MH.

Notably, this means GFS has shown this exact development scenario (a wave tracking across MDR and developing near Eastern Caribbean) 3 runs in a row.

Tomas 2010 may be a good analog for the 18z and 6z runs.

https://i.postimg.cc/k52MDHvQ/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh66-384.gif

Any TC in the nw carib could certainly pose a threat to cuba/fl if there is indeed one.Huge trof on most of the models ready to scoop anything northward. Just Speculation at this point

[cycloneye]

12z ICON on board with development.

[Cachondo23]

Very low rider for this time of the year.

[TomballEd]

Day 16 hurricanes are cool to look at but they are no more likely to occur than an ensemble member storm at that range.

Speaking of ensembles, GFS and Euro ensembles suggest a possible late October Caribbean storm.

[TomballEd]

Puerto Rico (with Hispaniola involved) and Bermuda threat on the GFS.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro develops wave that is still inside West Africa.

[LarryWx]

00z Euro develops wave that is still inside West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/heAsKY5.gif

And suddenly after 6 runs in a row developing it, the 6Z GFS drops it. You can’t make this stuff up, folks! But it still has some upper level vorticity as well as some GEFS support fwiw.

[SFLcane]

00z Euro develops wave that is still inside West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/heAsKY5.gif

And suddenly after 6 runs in a row developing it, the 6Z GFS drops it. You can’t make this stuff up, folks! But it still has some upper level vorticity as well as some GEFS support fwiw.

Meh gfs has been complete trash this season to be frank most models have been at times this yr. There is still a pretty respectable ensemble signal on the gefs,eps so who knows.

[Kazmit]

00z Euro develops wave that is still inside West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/heAsKY5.gif

And suddenly after 6 runs in a row developing it, the 6Z GFS drops it. You can’t make this stuff up, folks! But it still has some upper level vorticity as well as some GEFS support fwiw.

And the ICON is now on board too!

[LarryWx]

00z Euro develops wave that is still inside West Africa.

https://i.imgur.com/heAsKY5.gif

And suddenly after 6 runs in a row developing it, the 6Z GFS drops it. You can’t make this stuff up, folks! But it still has some upper level vorticity as well as some GEFS support fwiw.

And the ICON is now on board too!

The 12Z GFS kind of reluctantly brought it back from 6Z’s nothing though with it not as strong as the prior runs. But in GFS fashion, it gets to MH strength as it goes between PR and Hisp way out on 10/24 **fwiw**.

The 12Z CMC has it for the 2nd run in a row and it’s stronger than the prior run. It has a cat 1 hurricane hitting E PR late 10/21 to early 10/22 as it recurves into a trough to its N.

The UKMET (12Z) still doesn’t have it.

[IsabelaWeather]

And suddenly after 6 runs in a row developing it, the 6Z GFS drops it. You can’t make this stuff up, folks! But it still has some upper level vorticity as well as some GEFS support fwiw.

And the ICON is now on board too!

The 12Z GFS kind of reluctantly brought it back from 6Z’s nothing though with it not as strong as the prior runs. But in GFS fashion, it gets to MH strength as it goes between PR and Hisp way out on 10/24 **fwiw**.

The 12Z CMC has it for the 2nd run in a row and it’s stronger than the prior run. It has a cat 1 hurricane hitting E PR late 10/21 to early 10/22 as it recurves into a trough to its N.

The UKMET (12Z) still doesn’t have it.

That would be an amazing track for me to watch happen lol.

[Fancy1002]

So based on what I’ve seen, if it develops enough near the Leeward Islands, the system will head north and out to sea, but if development is delayed enough into the Caribbean, then Florida and Cuba have something to worry about.

[TomballEd]

So based on what I’ve seen, if it develops enough near the Leeward Islands, the system will head north and out to sea, but if development is delayed enough into the Caribbean, then Florida and Cuba have something to worry about.

I count 4 ensemble members along with the op GFS that hits or passes very close to Puerto Rico. Or the United States still has a chance of seeing a hurricane landfall.

[Jr0d]

Still a good ensemble signal in the west Carib from the GFS and Canadian at the end of their runs. However the GFS and to a lesser extent the Canadian has consistently shown a signal there often all season long so I dont think its anything to worry about for now.

The wave the models show possibly developing and heading towards PR is something we may need to keep an eye on...interesting enough the ICON has been the southern outlier...it will be interesting to see what it does when its forecast range takes it it PR's longitude.