2015 Global model runs discussion

[boca]

The latest GFS run has the low crossing over Florida again.

[ROCK]

Oct 1989 Jerry...let it be written let it be said

[Hurricaneman]

The latest GFS run has the low crossing over Florida again.

Not really, it redevelops the low in the Bahamas on farther up the front

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Alyono]

EC substantially weaker. Basically non existent through 144 hours

There is a reason the meteorologists didn't go for this development

[ronjon]

Models all over the place now. GFS flip flopping, Euro inconsistent, CMC consistently taking a hurricane into the Florida panhandle. Watch and wait time.

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile NWS this morning.......

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
PERSIST FROM NEAR THE WESTERN GULF/TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVING NEAR THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING ON
TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENCY AMONG GUIDANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
SUNDAY/MONDAY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAKER SYSTEM. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TRENDING TO CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST WHERE BEST QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY WITH MID 80S OTHERWISE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70
AT THE COAST...TRENDING A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

[HURRICANELONNY]

Mobile NWS this morning.......

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL
PERSIST FROM NEAR THE WESTERN GULF/TEXAS TO THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A LONGWAVE TROF EVOLVING NEAR THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING ON
TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENCY AMONG GUIDANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
SUNDAY/MONDAY WHICH MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAKER SYSTEM. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH POPS GRADUALLY
TRENDING TO CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST WHERE BEST QPF AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY WITH MID 80S OTHERWISE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70
AT THE COAST...TRENDING A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

Is that Alabama NWS?

[Pearl River]

From Slidell (NOLA) AFD this morning:

.SHORT/LONG TERM...
DRY AIR WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE WEST BUT WILL BE EVENTUALLY
PUSHED WEST BY WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE WEST. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALREADY MOVING TOWARD THE LA AND MISS COAST ON DEEP EASTERLIES.
MOISTURE WILL WIN OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESTROGRADE BACK
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET A DEEP TROPICAL
FEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE YUCATAN UP TO THE FLA
PANHANDLE. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE WEST AND EAST AS A LARGE
SYNOPTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
INTRODUCE THE LARGE RIDGE WILL BE VERY STRONG AND QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY NEXT WED AND EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO THE MID APPALACHIANS BY THU OF NEXT WEEK. ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM
THAT WOULD BE AROUND BY THAT TIME WOULD MOST DEFINITELY FIND
ITSELF IN A VERY VOLATILE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 50KTS. BUT THIS WOULD BE EXCELLENT
FOR A COLD CORE SYSTEM AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD MAKE FOR
SOME STRONG DIFLUENCE. THE BIGGEST WORRY WITH NEXT WEEK FOR THE
AREA THAT RECEIVES ANY OF THIS TROPICAL FEED WILL BE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY. SINCE THE SYNOPTIC HIGH MOVES
RAPIDLY SE...IT WOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS OVER A WEEK AWAY AND
THE SIMPLE FACT OF THIS IS THAT WE WILL NEED TO SEE THIS ENERGY
TRANSLATE THROUGH WESTERN CANADA BEFORE MAKING ANY CONFIDENT FCAST
DECISIONS THAT FAR OUT.

[ROCK]

latest FIM model....looks like Western LA after doing a loop in the GOM. Eerily similar to the EURO run the other day.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDisk ... perimental FIM Model Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[PTrackerLA]

Don't see much coming of this but hopefully the low can enhance rains across southern Louisiana. Parts of our area have a severe drought developing.

[ROCK]

Don't see much coming of this but hopefully the low can enhance rains across southern Louisiana. Parts of our area have a severe drought developing.

reminds me of Lili that weakened before landfall drawing dry air into it. I can see something similar happening here if its allowed to get going...that's big "IF" though.....

[cycloneye]

The members can post model runs and discuss about the possible GOM system at the "Posible GOM Development?" thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117579&p=2478518#p2478518

[PTrackerLA]

Don't see much coming of this but hopefully the low can enhance rains across southern Louisiana. Parts of our area have a severe drought developing.

reminds me of Lili that weakened before landfall drawing dry air into it. I can see something similar happening here if its allowed to get going...that's big "IF" though.....

Lili still packed a punch for Lafayette. Stronger winds than with Hurricane Andrew and widespread power outages for the area that lasted several days. I'll never forget seeing the forecast the evening before landfall of wind gusts up to 135mph+! Thankfully with the weakening we only received wind gusts in the 70-80mph range. That storm could have truly devastated this area.

I don't see how this September can be compared to 2002 at all. Two major hurricanes entered the Gulf and Isidore would have easily been a major hurricane for the northern gulf coast if it had not unexpectedly stalled out over the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

GFS shows a Western Caribbean system in the long-range that heads NW into the NW Caribbean

[Frank2]

Large area of strong convection in the SW Caribbean this afternoon - not sure if this is what the models were suggesting over the past week...

Frank

[Hurricaneman]

Large area of strong convection in the SW Caribbean this afternoon - not sure if this is what the models were suggesting over the past week...

Frank

We have a thread for this system but I think that may be the area to look the next few weeks before season shutdown

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

Not to be taken seriously would not wish that run on anyone.

[LarryWx]

How about this for something crazy on the 12Z Euro: what appears to be the remnants of Ida reach the far NE Caribbean as an organized though sheared 1006 tropical low on 10/4 on a SW heading!

[lordkev]

How about this for something crazy on the 12Z Euro: what appears to be the remnants of Ida reach the far NE Caribbean as an organized though sheared 1006 tropical low on 10/4 on a SW heading!

There also seems to be another low not far behind following the same path.

[gatorcane]

How about this for something crazy on the 12Z Euro: what appears to be the remnants of Ida reach the far NE Caribbean as an organized though sheared 1006 tropical low on 10/4 on a SW heading!

Yep posted in the Ida Models thread but might as well post it here too, at the end it looks to turn NW.

Of course the ECMWF has been just about as bad as the CMC this year so I would say this has little chance of happening.