TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

#121 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:37 pm

I just see no evidence of an LLC, MLC, or center near that blob, that blob is just temporary NE of the center....should warm with time...

the center SW that is moving W or just a bit WSW is the one that should sustain in my opinion.

wxmann_91 · #122 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:38 pm

Chances of recurvature IMO are 75%. HOWEVER, what would prevent it is a) stronger high building in from Canada or b) Slowing down of Florence's motion.

BTW, 91L behind it has a very good chance of not recurving should it develop.

cinlfla · #123 Postby **cinlfla** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:38 pm

Looking at the Infrared Floater You can see the center moving Due west I beleive the convection thats trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion, but I do see a due west motion of course this is my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

#124 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:39 pm

its really blowing up.

Weatherfreak14 · #125 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:40 pm

cinlfla wrote:Looking at the Infrared Floater You can see the center moving Due west I beleive the convection thats trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion, but I do see a due west motion of course this is my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Put the LAT/LON on u can see it falling in LAT.

#126 Postby **fci** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:
18z GFDL has a roadblock for Florence around 65w.

Yeah!!!!

I knew that the line that I drew on my map would come in handy!

:lol:

Weatherfreak14 · #127 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:44 pm

I still think the mm5fsu Model has a good take on this system and think this is what this storm will do. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Cyclenall · #128 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Cyclenall,I added the storm2k disclaimer to your post.

Thanks.

cpdaman wrote:how can your total percentages equal more than 100% , your example equal 175%

now there could be some overlappng but how can there be 55% chance of no land effected and 50 % some land effected that is 105%?

i am not trying to flame, i am just wondering (i could be in the wrong)

I don't do it that way. I have seen this type of % before where it doesn't have to equal 100%. This question has been asked before once.

ROCK · #129 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:44 pm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....

#130 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:45 pm

ROCK wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....

No worries here.

MiamiensisWx · #131 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:46 pm

ROCK wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....

Link doesn't work. No access to the plots.

#132 Postby **fci** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:48 pm

ROCK wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....

The dreaded "access forbidden" link.

#133 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:48 pm

fci wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

getting little closer to PR, uh Luis....

The dreaded "access forbidden" link.

I have these posted in the Tropical Storm florence forecast model thread.

Weathermaster · #134 Postby **Weathermaster** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:53 pm

Florence remember me Hurricane Luis in 1995. After it gets 17.0 latitude it went right to the west and almost hit us in PR.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199512.asp

Zardoz · #135 Postby **Zardoz** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:53 pm

cinlfla wrote:...I believe the convection that's trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion.

I don't know. Is it really just an illusion, or has Flo turned WSW? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

ROCK · #136 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:53 pm

Man I always screw this one up...

..early guidance...18utc

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm

#137 Postby **fci** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:53 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:[

I have these posted in the Tropical Storm florence forecast model thread.

Thanks, the other thread is quite helpful.

Derek Ortt · #138 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:56 pm

the new GFDL is out to lunch

It has the system mvoing at a heading of 334 in 30 hours, not very likely. It's track, while the idea seems valid, is likely just a little to the right

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06090523

#139 Postby **Toadstool** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the new GFDL is out to lunch

It has the system mvoing at a heading of 334 in 30 hours, not very likely. It's track, while the idea seems valid, is likely just a little to the right

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06090523

Hopefully so... I think the GFDL has it going nearly right over Bermuda.

#140 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:59 pm

Zardoz wrote:
cinlfla wrote:...I believe the convection that's trying to build over the center is causing an illusion of a southward motion.

I don't know. Is it really just an illusion, or has Flo turned WSW? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

i was just wondering to myself that.

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

Track remembers me Hurricane Luis 1995...

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