T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[ronjon]

Actually I think its more likely that ole 98L will develop somewhere down the line and impact the US then TD 6. As wxman57 said, based on climatology, the vast majority of storms spun fish out there where TD 6 formed - Bermuda should definitely watch TD 6 but odds are pretty slim it would affect the continental US. The GFS actually developed both 98L and TD 6 for several runs the last few days, bringing 98L into FL or just south of FL.

[southerngale]

Who said this would be a fish? Though later on when it reaches Bahamas GFS turns it north...

My local met said a trough will protect the US from landfall. I also heard a few people on here say fish.

One local met and a few people on here...big difference from "everyone"

How come GFDL shows a more west track towards the end, but everyone is saying this is a fish?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually I think its more likely that ole 98L will develop somewhere down the line and impact the US then TD 6. As wxman57 said, based on climatology, the vast majority of storms spun fish out there where TD 6 formed - Bermuda should definitely watch TD 6 but odds are pretty slim it would affect the continental US. The GFS actually developed both 98L and TD 6 for several runs the last few days, bringing 98L into FL or just south of FL.

I agree. If 98L develops it will have a much higher chance of a U.S. landfall since it will probably track through the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200606_model.gif

Just remember that the BAM models should not be used in this type of situation (storm moving out of the deep tropics. The BAM trajectory models are not very sophisticated and they won't see the changing steering flow ahead of the storm.

[Tampa_God]

98L is the one behind it, right?

[cycloneye]

98L is the one behind it, right?

The one in front of TD6.

[wxman57]

How come GFDL shows a more west track towards the end, but everyone is saying this is a fish?

Careful extrapolating any track. There are two high pressure centers and two trofs that may pick this storm up. The GFDL and GFS turn Florence-to-be westward around 5 days as it misses the first trof. But the 2nd trof is yet to come. It'll have to miss both trofs and be blocked by both high pressure centers to reach the east U.S. Coast. That'll be hard to do, but not completely impossible.

[Extremeweatherguy]

98L is the one behind it, right?

no 98L (or I should have said ex 98L) is actually the one SW of TD#6. It looks a lot better tonight though, so they may have to rename it an invest down the road. If it develops, it would have a better chance of a U.S. hit.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Let 'em wonder now I realize a Pro has to keep some sense of decorum, but well stay on topic

[southerngale]

All these models are as good as urban legends at this point.

Grease Monkey,

Not if they're used together. There's pretty good model agreement attm.

Wasn't there pretty good model agreement that Ernesto was going into the GOM too? And I think there was also pretty good model agreement that it was headed towards the western GOM as well.

IMO, it's too early to tell where it's going so if you're gonna watch them this early, just follow the trends.

[Tampa_God]

Anyone think about the wave behind TD6 will form? I agree that 98L is looking better tonight then earlier in the day. TD6 is also looking good. Tomorrow it will probably be Florence and moving NW/WNW track.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The trend is our friend indeed. I will not be surprised to see some decent swings even in the overall consensus.

[SouthFLTropics]

All these models are as good as urban legends at this point.

Grease Monkey,

Not if they're used together. There's pretty good model agreement attm.

Wasn't there pretty good model agreement that Ernesto was going into the GOM too? And I think there was also pretty good model agreement that it was headed towards the western GOM as well.

IMO, it's too early to tell where it's going so if you're gonna watch them this early, just follow the trends.

Agreed Southerngale...It seems like the models are all over the board with this thing right now. Some North, some South. I think if we all give it a few days the models will get a better handle on it. If the more reliable models start coming into good agreement then I'll be more concerned. Until then, it is just another swirl of clouds and storms in the Atlantic. I for one think we are going to have to wait and see what that mid atlantic trough is going to do and how long it takes for it to lift out to see what is left of TD6 and where it may go. Then the models may start to get a good feel for it.

SouthFLTropics

[Weatherfreak14]

Right now at this point TD6 has a 50/50 shot at the US.

[Sanibel]

You can see by the shape of the system how imperfect a synoptic the storm is developing under.

We'll see if it breaks the "block" that is keeping it relatively stationary and heads in whatever direction is downrange.

This one has some patches of red-top IR even before it has fully consolidated. This could be the one...

Track wise: If the trough hasn't pulled it right up right away there's probably a tongue of high pressure in between it and the trough that bodes for a more west course as the trough passes and fails to catch the storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since we cannot rely on model data this far out from the east U.S. Coast, let's look at climo. I plotted all named storms in August/September that passed within 65 nautical miles of where TD 6 is located this evening. Only 4 storms since 1851 reached the east U.S. Coast, two in the late 1800s, one in the early 1900s, and Fran in 1996. Most named storms that passed near where TD 6 is turned northward between 55W-75W. I suspect that's what TD 6 / Florence will do. But there's a slight chance it could be blocked twice and shoved west to the east U.S. Coast. It's just a matter of timing.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo1.gif

Zoomed-in version:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/climo2.gif

good post wxman57. I tried to bring that point up earlier, that's it's EXTREMELY RARE for the position of a storm such as TD6 to make it to the East Coast. I would actually be shocked that it did. Remember, it's only happened 4 times...There are just too many opportunities for it to turn northward and Fish. So why so many people are flipped out and worrying it beyond me.

[Damar91]

Were there any models around when Andrew hit? I know that home computers weren't what they are today, but. Anyone?

[cycloneye]

Let me explain something here, all of us Mods have been very busy this weekend doing our jobs the best we can. Effective immediately, all non essential posts a mod deems non-essentail will contunue to be deleted and if I see one member being rude to an admin, mod or promet you are automatically inactive for 12 hours or more. You got a problem with this pm me I'd love to discuss it with you

[Sanibel]

Only 4 storms since 1851 reached the east U.S. Coast, two in the late 1800s, one in the early 1900s, and Fran in 1996. Most named storms that passed near where TD 6 is turned northward between 55W-75W. I suspect that's what TD 6 / Florence will do. But there's a slight chance it could be blocked twice and shoved west to the east U.S. Coast. It's just a matter of timing.

The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

[bob rulz]

The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane will never happen again.